The MVC is a crapshoot

by **jsaluki080** » November 26th, 2018, 12:56 am

Last year, MSU was the clear MVC favorites in a down MVC year. This year Loyola is suppose to be the favorites in a strong MVC. I now doubt it will play out that way. I understand there is a always a lvl of unpredictability but guessing the MVC is too much!! :Bam:

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by **Mikovio** » November 26th, 2018, 8:43 am

The two constants: Milik Yarbrough getting arrested and Brian Wardle improving his win total.

by **VUGrad1314** » November 26th, 2018, 8:48 am

Agreed. It's the nature of the conference. Everyone plays each other tough and winning these games is never easy. I think it's a big reason why this conference is so successful. I believe it will continue as long as budgets remain in line with one another. Until one team vastly outpaces the rest the way Wichita State did I doubt we will see any school have a run of extended dominance and on balance that's a good thing for the league.

by **VUGrad1314** » November 26th, 2018, 8:52 am

Mikovio wrote:The two constants: Milik Yarbrough getting arrested and Brian Wardle improving his win total.

What's he going to do for an encore once he goes undefeated and wins the national title? All kidding aside he's done amazing things in Peoria and the league is better for it. A strong Bradley program is key to the success of the MVC.

by **Redbirdgrad** » November 26th, 2018, 12:49 pm

Here's a little analysis, 6 or so games in, so take these ratings with a heavy grain of salt.

Used Realtimerpi, Sagarin, and Kenpom rankings to find an average for both actual rating and SOS, then tiered the teams based on that. Again, very early, but here's how the MVC is looking...

Tier 1
Loyola - 99.67 (133/98/68), 254.67 SOS (135/322/307)
Southern Illinois - 102.33 (48/146/113), 116.67 SOS (28/161/161)
Illinois State - 102.33 (31/151/125), 140.67 SOS (71/160/191)

Numbers right now on these are showing pretty similar. ISU's has the biggest swing, Loyola's numbers are the most consistent. SOS for Loyola isn't too favorable according to Sagarin and Kenpom, so we'll see in the next couple of weeks what happens with them.

Tier 2
Bradley - 104.67 (105/108/101), 246 SOS (237/249/252)
Indiana State - 114.67 (69/130/145), 93.33 SOS (130/70/80)

Bradley's average alone would put them in the top tier, but without any computer liking their SOS (unlike Loyola), and no top 100 RPI among any of the three, we have to keep them here. Indiana State has played a decent schedule to this point, and looks to be solidly in the next tier.

Tier 3
Northern Iowa - 150.33 (137/167/147), 126 SOS (129/121/128)
Drake - 153.67 (45/195/221), 129.67 SOS (73/172/144)

Tiers 2 and 3 could probably be combined, but I think there's separation. Nothing great, nothing terrible here, just mid-level Valley teams to this point.

Tier 4
Missouri State - 193.67 (240/154/187), 213.33 SOS (215/205/220)

Have to put them by themselves here. Enough separation in the numbers to do it. 3 wins against terrible teams, and then a 3 game losing streak once they got into playing halfway decent teams. Missouri State I feel could end up Tier 2 by the time this is all over... or be right here near the bottom. Stay tuned.

Tier 5
Valparaiso - 223 (326/192/151), 228.67 SOS (332/207/147)
Evansville - 240 (321/197/202), 125.33 SOS (293/39/44)

If the conference as a whole wants to improve, it has to start here. Evansville has had a pretty tough schedule to this point, but has done nothing with it. Valpo has just done nothing. Really need the bottom to pick it up.

by **Drakey** » November 27th, 2018, 4:32 pm

Why is Valpo so bad? on paper their players are at or near the top of the conference. I fear they have a coaching problem.

by **VUGrad1314** » November 29th, 2018, 9:42 am

Drakey wrote:Why is Valpo so bad? on paper their players are at or near the top of the conference. I fear they have a coaching problem.

I don't think the problem lies with coaching as frustrating as the game against SIUE was. The issues have been injury and transition related. We are playing out contracts with SIUE and UC-Riverside that we signed as members of the HL. Those are done after this year. Even so we've scheduled up and shown well in many games. We were competitive with WKU into the second half. Same story with WVU. Against Wake Forest we were in it until the end. The problem? Micah Bradford who emerged late last year as a valuable distributor has played all of 3 minutes this year and Jaume Sorolla a key piece of our frontcourt just saw his first action in a tight contest against UNLV. The result? We won. His absence forced Mileek McMillan and even John Kiser to play minutes at center which neither is well-suited to do. I have to think that made a difference down the stretch in those earlier games which in turn makes a difference in our metrics. Those teams being generally underwhelming this year also probably hurts because it means our schedule isn't as strong as it looked initially but that's out of Valpo's hands. As for the coaching, Derrik Smits has been an absolute revelation this year. His development has been incredible and I think McMillan will show similar progress once he gets into a more comfortable role. If Bradford continues his improvements and our freshmen continue to grow then it should be pretty clear that there is no serious coaching problem. If Valpo has one then I think you have to wonder whether every team in the MVC has one based on the performances we've seen this year.