Updated Conference Predictions

[MissouriValleyUnite]

10) Northern Iowa 5-13
Enigma. Worst UNI team since 9/11. Brown, Pickford, & Berhow (Pepperdine) were solid young players ahead of the curve last year who’ve regressed this year. Meshing everyone together with AJ Green hasn’t sparked chemistry yet. Multiple double digit home losses, trailing Dubuque by 10, 32 point ambush to the Jackrabbits, and 9-pt loss to a UTA team with a brand new roster/coach with 2 other wins (over a pair of 2-9 teams). No option here but wait and trust a proven coach turns it around.

9) Missouri State 5-13
Potential is there. Beat Western Kentucky who’s scored wins over Wisconsin, WVU, Arkansas, & Saint Mary’s. Need defense and consistency.

8) Valparaiso 6-12
12-6 talent masked with an inverse record. Why? Lottich-coached teams are soft and dumb. They get hammered on the boards. They foul. They defer to their most inefficient player on offense. Look at their losses: 2/9, 2/7, 4/15, 4/11, 1/9, 4/15. Not to discount 2/8 & 2/13
in a couple wins.

7) Evansville 7-11
On paper this roster should be #10 in the MVC. But they’re incredibly well coached with a resilient culture (remember when they bounced back from 40-pt loss nearly beating Xavier? Or bounced back from a 17-pt deficit with a 47-11 run over Ball St?) and a true home court advantage. 7-2 at home, 0-9 on the road.

6) Bradley 9-9
Wins will continue to slip away with Hodgson on the court down the stretch and better players riding pine. Kinky substitution patterns for added measure. Wardle would be wise to point thumbs instead of fingers.

5) Illinois State 9-9
Most disappointing MVC team since I’ve followed the Valley. Talent that matches if not exceeds the 17-1 juggernaut from 2 years ago. Yaklich and Lee were the engine driving the defense (Fayne fills Lee’s leadership void). Problem is too many similar, need-ball-to-be-effective players and a Chinese firedrill defensively. Evans and Tinsley have fallent victim to stunning Senioritis regressions. But Muller does have a knack for rounding the ‘birds into form late.

4) Loyola 12-6
Loyola turned in a plainjane non-con. 0-6 vs top 115. 6-0 vs bottom 180. Great top 5. Need Custer back to dominance and Williamson healthy. Need a capable bench. If the Croatian doesn’t cut it (and I don’t think he does), live and die by the underclassmen with raw ability.

3) Indiana State 12-6
Hot and cold. Need to grind out those old fashioned blue collar games when cold. Demonstrated ability to close in Hawai’i.

2) Southern Illinois 12-6
Non-con skewed worse than they are because of Armon Fletcher’s suspension. Fletcher changes the Salukis’ complexion entirely. musiccitybulldog was first to call it in November but I’m also throwing my hat in the ring for an all-dawgs Sunday in STL.

1) Drake 13-5
They’ve got the coach. They’ve got the PG. They’ve got the big man. They’ve got the chemistry. Drake checks all the boxes and looks to be the horse to take. Norton brings a heady toughness that reminds me of Bryan Mullins while running an offense like a General Custer. Throw in DeVries’ composure and ability to close with McGlynn outworking everyone down low, and Norton is special enough to will Drake to a 12/5 upset in March.

[VUGrad1314]

Up until today's game I might have agreed with much of this assessment of Valpo but I believe after watching them today that the seeds of a turnaround may have been planted. I saw more fire more discipline more efficiency (granted our most inefficient player was out with an injury). Rebounding is still an issue and this team has exploitable weaknesses but I think Coach is learning to trust what he sees in practice. He said today "there are no starters. They'll have to earn it (playing time)." We tried a new lineup today and the energy was there from the word go. There are reasons for optimism in Northwest Indiana as we head into conference play.

[Go4Valley]

I have a very hard time giving Drake top billing in valley. Remember last year when Missouri State going into conference play was hands down the favorite? I see Nick Horn playing good in conference but I think he will see his struggles vs experienced Valley guards

[Drakey]

Yeah, that Horn dude won't be able to keep it up.

[ptownbraves]

Conference play is going to be fun. There isn't one team that should feel completely confident walking into an opponent's arena. My prediction is that the underperforming Illinois teams start playing with a clue, with SIU leading the charge and Loyola right behind them.

1. Southern Illinois - Solid guards and deep on bigs. What's not to like?

2. Loyola - They are hurting without the tenacious Ben Richardson defense and Donte Ingram's presence, but they return enough talent to make things uncomfortable for most MVC teams.

3. Drake - They come out of the gate hot but drop off slightly by the end of conference play as teams figure out how to game plan for Norton. Also, no one on this roster can quite figure out how to "manufacture" a foul like Reed Timmer could, cause that guy was a craftsman.

4. Illinois State - They have too much talent and athleticism in Fayne, Evans and Yarborough to put them out of the top 4 in a league where those two things are often hard to come by.

5. Indiana State - The Jordan Barnes show will keep them competitive in most games.

6. Missouri State - Some good talent, but can they consistently win?

7. Bradley - Not enough talented guards, plain and simple. They have been exposed in the non-con for their lack of scoring options, as they were taken to task against such juggernauts as Eastern Illinois, IUPUI, struggled to put away Arkansas Little Rock and required last second heroics to beat Southeastern Louisiana...at home. Simply push the pace, rack up points and don't worry too much about defense as the Bradley guards will miss enough and turn it over to keep you in the game. If you score 70 points, you should like your chances of winning. They did beat Penn State and SMU in Cancun but were a completely different team after that and haven't shown enough promise to think they will be playing in anything other than a Thursday game.

8. Evansville - Kept it close against Murray State and a couple respectable wins but not enough to get them out of Thursday.

9. UNI - Only reason they aren't last is because of the UNI legacy. Hard time believing a Ben Jacobson team won't show some signs of life at some point in the season.

10. Valpo - They haven't shown enough to believe they are anything other than a play-in team.

[Go4Valley]

LOL my bad Norton.....weekend binge had me....forgive me

[Drakey]

Might need to revise those predictions. Bulldogs look like they have lost their best player.