Odds to win Arch Madness as of 2/21

[sixth ace]

What do you think each team's odds to win at the arch are as of today?

30.8% - Wichita State
22.5% - Creighton
14% - Northern Iowa
12.5% - Illinois State
11% - Missouri State
4% - Indiana State
2.5% - Evansville
2% - Drake
0.5% - Southern Illinois
0.2% - Bradley

IMO
Wichita St & Creighton are a bit too low
Illinois St and UNI are too high should be single digits

IMO IllSU,UNI and MSU are all alittle high. UE split with ILSU,last sec shot beat us there, swept UNI and beat MSU at home and you give them 37.5% of the whole and UE 2.5. I think you may have been a bit high when you thought these things out.

[BirdmanBB]

We were looking at this on our site and I asked the question, historically, how often does a team outside of the top two win in St. Louis. Apparently the top 3 seeds have won the last 33 out of 35 times. 13 each for 1st and 2nd place seeds and then 7 times from the 3 seed. This leaves 2 times for 4th-6th and of course no team has ever won that has played on Thursday. So from this...

1st = 37.1%
2nd = 37.1%
3rd = 20%
4th-6th = 5.8% (somewhere in there)
7th-10th = 0%

Those odds look about right to me. Although for this year, I might pull some of that % from 3rd place and spread it a little more across 4th-6th since 3rd -6th this year are pretty much lumped together. So I might go....

1st = 37.1% (WSU)
2nd = 37.1% (CU)
3rd = 6.45% (MSU and ?)
4th = 6.45%
5th = 6.45%
6th = 6.45%
7th-10th = 0% (BU, SIU and ?)

Once we figure out who 3rd-6th is, we might be able to pull a little % from those teams and add to MSU's, UNI's and Evansville's chances considering they have already proven the ability to win over at least one of the top 2 teams in the conference. ISU still gets a chance against WSU tomorrow so we will see what happens there, but you would be looking at pulling a % from Indiana St., Drake and ISU if any of those teams finish in 3-6 to add to MSU, UNI and Evansville's chances if they finish 3-6.

If ISU beats WSU at home tomorrow then I would keep the odds at 6.45% each for 3-6 assuming we have a 3-6 involving ISU, MSU, UNI and Evansville. Maybe at that point think about taking a little away evenly from both CU and WSU and spread across 3-6 (say maybe so that there is an 8-10% chance each with those teams assuming a finish like that).

[Kyle]

WSU 30%
CU 20%
UE 15%
MSU 10%
UNI 10%
Drake 8%
ISUred 5%
ISUblue 2%
SIU .000000000000001%
Bradley .00000000000000000000001%

[sixth ace]

WSU 30%
CU 20%
UE 15%
MSU 10%
UNI 10%
Drake 8%
ISUred 5%
ISUblue 2%
SIU .000000000000001%
Bradley .00000000000000000000001%