It's awful early to cite RPI.
But not to speculate
Here's my roadmap to MVC RPI success:
Wichita still has BYU, St Louis, Alabama, and Tennessee. 4 teams that are at least bubble teams. My gut feeling is they get 3 of 4 and exit the non-con with 1 loss.
Indiana St has a MTT, although to get real value out of it, they've gotta win it. Also St Louis. Good news is the Notre Dame win has a lot of built-in equity. If Indiana St can lose just once more in the non-con, they're in good shape.
Northern Iowa has 3 losses, but none are bad, and more importantly: they beat LaSalle and have N-Iowa St, @Virginia, and VCU all looming as legitimate quality win chances. Win 1 of 3 and you're in decent shape, 2 of 3 and you're in really good shape.
Missouri St gets a chance at a quality win. I think both SMU and Virginia could supply it, but might as well beat A&M while you're in the MTT. @Louisville is unlikely for them. @Oral Bob might be mandatory, because other teams on their schedule are underachieving. I'm rooting for MSU to get out of the non-con with no more than 2 losses.
Evansville has the meat of their schedule coming. @Indiana, @Xavier, Butler, among others. Get one of those 3 and win the rest and you're cooking with gas.
Bradley has nothing quality left on the schedule, unless you count N-Pacific and South Florida (you could, your mileage may vary). This is the one team that needs to hoard wins. Almost any loss is damaging.
Drake does get Iowa on a neutral and New Mexico St at home. @Fresno too. Can Drake get 1 win out of those 3 and get the rest too? I think it's reasonable.
SIU doesn't have much quality left on their schedule either. I think they could manage 4-2 the rest of their non-con.
I have no idea what to think of Loyola. The only thing I ask: they hold home court in their upcoming 3 game homestand against marginal competition (UIC, Campbell, N. Illinois). Anything else would be gravy.
I have no idea what to do with Illinois St, either. Can they get a roadie at San Fran or Oakland? Do that, beat cupcakes at home, and anything else is a bonus.
The 2 big steps are getting quality wins and avoiding bad losses. UNI is going to go a long way towards the former, and Bradley is going to go a long way towards the latter. They're the two RPI lynchpins. And Wichita and InSU too, but they're the obvious ones.
http://bracketball.blogspot.com/ A national version of the world-famous TAS Bracketology. Spread the word