Surprise team of the Valley in 2011/12?

by **glm38** » August 2nd, 2011, 4:32 pm

It seems like most years there is an MVC team that exceeds all pre season expectations. Any thoughts on who that team will be in 2011/12?

My thoughts are:

1. MSU. With the returning POY and a surprisingly good recruiting class I think we can contend this year if certain things fall into place. Sorry I know I'm a "homer" and eternal optimist. Just can't help it.

2. Northern Iowa. Had a very good recruiting year. And I really believe in their coach and system.

**Sponsor**

by **MoValley John** » August 2nd, 2011, 5:01 pm

I hate to say this, but I think the Aces might just do it. They have been competitive for the last few years, they will have a new arena that will draw more fans and be a tough place for opposing teams and it is about the timeframe for something good to happen to them.

My second guess, and this is simply a guess, is Southern Illinois. I have no reasin to pick them other than they are Southern Illinois.

Illinois State could be a surprise, but I have little faith in Jank.

In reality, I don't think there are any teams that match up with Wichita State and Creighton. In my opinion, both of those teams are good enough to fend off any surprises. I waffle almost by the week on all the rest, Missouri State could surprise, but I think they are trying to replace too many minutes on the floor this year. Regardless of how well their fans think that their depth will surprise, you don't replace four guys on a team that really didn't go seven deep a year ago without some dropoff.

by **MSUDuo** » August 2nd, 2011, 7:48 pm

MoValley John wrote:I hate to say this, but I think the Aces might just do it. They have been competitive for the last few years, they will have a new arena that will draw more fans and be a tough place for opposing teams and it is about the timeframe for something good to happen to them.

My second guess, and this is simply a guess, is Southern Illinois. I have no reasin to pick them other than they are Southern Illinois.

Illinois State could be a surprise, but I have little faith in Jank.

In reality, I don't think there are any teams that match up with Wichita State and Creighton. In my opinion, both of those teams are good enough to fend off any surprises. I waffle almost by the week on all the rest, Missouri State could surprise, but I think they are trying to replace too many minutes on the floor this year. Regardless of how well their fans think that their depth will surprise, you don't replace four guys on a team that really didn't go seven deep a year ago without some dropoff.

Can't really disagree for the most part because of the talent we did lose. However, I have a hard time believe that if we go 8-9-10 deep, that they can't replace what basically 7 players did last year. Heck, we have 3 of those 7 back this year. I do believe that Scheer and Patterson can and will improve their numbers enough to where we are looking at maybe 5 guys replacing 3 players numbers from last year. That I believe will be done.

Can Biz and Downing cover 9 points, 4 assists, and 4 boards?

Can Pickens, Scheer, and Gulley, cover 22 points, 5 assists, and 8 boards?

Weems can take care of Weems

Can Patterson, Corbin, Kirk, and Rhine cover 11 points and 6.5 boards?

Those are the questions and I do understand that it might take a while for the guys to gel and learn to play together. This Bears team will be much better come March than in November if they don't get off to a horrible start of like 0-4 and start pressing. If they can get a road win at Arkansas State and ORU with a win at home against Tulsa, maybe they come together faster.

Look, I'm not predicting a repeat, nor am I saying that we won't finish towards the bottom. But I will be surprised if we aren't contending and finish in the top half. Time will tell

by **panther-state** » August 3rd, 2011, 12:34 am

Seeing as how everyone is certain that UNI will finish 7th or lower I'd have to say we have a pretty good shot of being the "surprise" team. I'm not saying that UNI won't finish outside of the top half of the conference...I'm saying that Ben Jacobson won't finish outside of the top half. C'mon people, we're talking about one of the most consistent programs in the past 7-8 years in the MVC. I don't think they'll be cellar-dwelling with Drake, Bradley and Ill. St. I'd put SIU down their too since Lowery is still around. His incoming class is good...but weren't they all supposed to be over the past few seasons :huh:

Not saying, just saying...

by **45otseoj** » August 3rd, 2011, 1:16 am

A couple thoughts...

Ben Jacobsen is a great coach. You'd be hard pressed to find someone who would disagree with that. But he isn't a miracle worker. I really like James, but he's no Kwadzo. Also, O'Rear will be dearly missed; UNI fans got a sneak peak of that in their last 10 games last season (2-8). I really like where this group is heading, but I'm predicting that buying UNI stock may be a better idea at this time next season.

Jank will finish in the top half if these 3 optimistic yet feasible things take place:
1. Carmichael goes from a 10+6 guy to a 12+8 guy.
2. Nic Moore averages over 4 apg.
3. Team 3pt% >35%

This will be another legit one-bid year (a non-legit year being where the regular season champion would have gone dancing regardless). Listened to Bluejay Banter last night, and the guys predicted that the top 5 would separate; doesn't matter. If it's one or two, great, but not 5. InSU, UE, and DU (possibly more) won't have the front court to battle for a championship, but they will win big games against CU and WSU that they aren't suppose to. The mental toughness and focus of the Jays and Shox will have to improve if they want to separate from the pack like their talent could allow them to.

by **panther-state** » August 3rd, 2011, 9:37 am

45otseoj wrote:This will be another legit one-bid year (a non-legit year being where the regular season champion would have gone dancing regardless). Listened to Bluejay Banter last night, and the guys predicted that the top 5 would separate; doesn't matter. If it's one or two, great, but not 5. InSU, UE, and DU (possibly more) won't have the front court to battle for a championship, but they will win big games against CU and WSU that they aren't suppose to. The mental toughness and focus of the Jays and Shox will have to improve if they want to separate from the pack like their talent could allow them to.

What?!?! Indiana State not the greatest thing since sliced bread??

I'm glad not everyone drinks the "Jake Odum=next Larry Bird and therefor we are invincible" kool-aid

by **ShockValue** » August 3rd, 2011, 10:09 am

I think Bradley and Evansville improve. I might have picked Drake before the injury to Van Deest.

by **BirdmanBB** » August 3rd, 2011, 10:15 am

If the critics are going to pick ISUred to finish last then I will say we would be a surprise team. It also wouldn't surprise me to see BU step up or Evansville.

by **SubGod22** » August 3rd, 2011, 10:31 am

I'm picking Illinois State to be the surprise team. A lot of young talent. If they don't improve, it's proof that Jank sucks.

by **45otseoj** » August 3rd, 2011, 1:54 pm

SubGod22 wrote:I'm picking Illinois State to be the surprise team. A lot of young talent. If they don't improve, it's proof that Jank sucks.

Still very optimistic about this group. If they don't improve, it won't have anythnig to do with their talent level.