Valley Tournament Projections as of 2/2

by **GOREDBIRDS4** » February 2nd, 2012, 11:42 am

This is how I see it. I have it set up with everyones wins and losses at the top and then remaining schedule. Then I show all the remaining games and I predict who will win. Well, it is mostly the better team or home team if it is close, some are highlighted as close calls. Then I projected based on that and at the bottom is the bracket as it would be.

What do you guys think?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... EpldERBbkE

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by **DoubleJayAlum** » February 2nd, 2012, 1:16 pm

Nice work. I love the results as well - it would be best for CU if UNi and MSU are in the other side of the bracket.

Do they still do a mini-round robin for tiebreakers? I thought they went to non-con SOS? Is that only if there are two teams tied?

by **shocktheheart** » February 2nd, 2012, 1:21 pm

DoubleJayAlum wrote:Nice work. I love the results as well - it would be best for CU if UNi and MSU are in the other side of the bracket.

Do they still do a mini-round robin for tiebreakers? I thought they went to non-con SOS? Is that only if there are two teams tied?

Non Conference RPI as of 2/24 is the tie breaker now. Don't know for sure if there are more than two teams though.

by **Aces1982** » February 2nd, 2012, 1:27 pm

From the MVC website. This was for 2011. I have never seen or heard it was different this year.

Two-way Ties
1. Records in head-to-head competition are compared, with the higher seed going to the team that has won the most games against the other.
2. If head-to-head competition does not break the tie, the deadlock will be broken by non-conference schedule strength as calculated by The RPI Report on the day before the final day of conference games. The team with the better non-conference schedule strength will receive the higher seed.

Multiple Ties
1. If three or more teams are tied, regular-season competition among the tied schools shall be pooled into a “mini round-robin.” Teams shall be ranked according to their position in such a round- robin.
2. If head-to-head competition does not break the tie, the deadlock will be broken by non-conference schedule strength as calculated by The RPI Report on the day before the final day of conference games. The teams will be seeded in order of their non-conference schedule strength.

by **Village Jay** » February 2nd, 2012, 1:44 pm

You put in a lot of effort so I won't leave you hangin'.
(1) Creighton
(8) Indiana State*
(9) Southern Illinois
(4) Evansville**
(5) Illinois State**

(3) Drake
(6) Missouri State**
(7) Northern Iowa*
(10) Bradley
(2) Wichita State

As a Creighton fan, I like that bracket. The two teams that gave us fits thus far besides WSU are on the other side - MSU & UNI. It would remind me of the Booker Woodfox year when the Jays tied UNI for the conference title, but UNI won the tiebreaker and UNI had a cakewalk to the finals where they beat a salty Illinois St team. It would be nice to be benafactors this year.

That being said, Indiana St is dangerous if they find their mojo. The second half of the game in Omaha, Indiana St shut down CU's scoring. It took a buzzer beating 3 to get pizza after scoring in the 40's by half.

Now what I think happens based more on gut than future matchups:
1) Creighton
8) Illinois St (I think last night's game is a blast to confidence and sends them reeling)
9) Southern Illinois
4) Drake (Jeckel & Hide home vs away)
5) Evansville
2) Wichita St
7) Indiana St
10) Bradley
3) Missouri St
6) UNI

by **cpacmel** » February 2nd, 2012, 1:49 pm

Village Jay wrote:
That being said, Indiana St is dangerous if they find their mojo.

They have won 3 in a row. Now they go to Wichita and the Peoria.

by **musiccitybulldog** » February 2nd, 2012, 4:53 pm

My prediction is the Bulldogs and Illinois State or Indiana State in the finals of an upset oriented MVC tournament.

Howdy Cpacmel, I think we visited last year at the hotel lobby before the games started.

by **GOREDBIRDS4** » February 2nd, 2012, 5:03 pm

Village Jay wrote:Now what I think happens based more on gut than future matchups:
1) Creighton
8) Illinois St (I think last night's game is a blast to confidence and sends them reeling)
9) Southern Illinois
4) Drake (Jeckel & Hide home vs away)
5) Evansville
2) Wichita St
7) Indiana St
10) Bradley
3) Missouri St
6) UNI

Problem with this is that I do not see Illinois State as an 8 seed based on the fact they have 2 left against Bradley. And you would think if they win 1 out of the other 4 games (v. DU, @ IN, @ NI, v. WS) that they would not be playing on Thursday. Although, I understand you were not looking at future matchups.

by **Duan** » February 3rd, 2012, 9:56 am

I LOVE Creighton's side of the bracket with Evansville being a wildcard since we haven't played them yet. It isn't a matter of which teams have more wins but which teams are the best match-ups for your own team. I do not like how CU matches up with MSU or Bradley. I don't remember being freaked out by UNI like other CU fans have stated on here but Saturday will tell me more about how CU matches up with them.