Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities - Feb 14 edition

[MVCfans]

The initial Arch Madness probabilities have been posted. There are two spreadsheets - one looking at every game as a 50/50 pick and another with weighted probabilities based on anticipated results.

The MVC Report - Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

Thanks again to Hacksaw.

[AndShock]

Love following this every year, thanks Hacksaw.

Will be interesting to see what the probabilities are if we're back in a 3 way tie come Monday.

[MVCfans]

Love following this every year, thanks Hacksaw.

Will be interesting to see what the probabilities are if we're back in a 3 way tie come Monday.

We will try to update regularly.

[BCPanther]

I'd like to know the one scenario where Drake finishes 2nd. That has to be insane...

[Realhoops]

This edition includes the following:

These charts take into account the head-to-head tiebreaker (and mini round-robin for a 3+ way tie), if this does not break the tie, it goes to the out of conference strength of schedule tiebreaker. Currently that order is what I have from ESPN (ISU-Blue 28, UNI 37, MSU 70, WSU 91, UE 114, DU 118, CU 128, ISU-Red 257, SIU 296, BU 344).

The nonconference strength of schedule that is used is supposed to be the one from "The RPI Report" -- I can't find that anywhere online. But I haven't seen any nonconference strength of schedule rankings that look like this list. Do you have a link to something that would suggest Creighton's non-conference schedule, with games against Wisconsin, Cal, Arizona State, St. Joe's, Boise State is one of the four worst non-conference schedules in the conference?

[pafan]

CU shows up at 133 in D1, 7th in MVC today:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... groupId/18

[GoShockers89]

Cool chart. Thank you to those who put it together.

[Realhoops]

CU shows up at 133 in D1, 7th in MVC today:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... groupId/18

Thanks for the link. Now, can anyone explain to me how these rankings for non-conference strength of schedule make sense? Looking at these teams' schedules, these rankings make little sense to me.

Here's what I see:

Missouri State -- non-conference SOS 65:
0-2 vs. top 50 RPI
0-2 vs. 51-100 RPI
0-2 vs. 101-150 RPI
0-4 vs. 150+ RPI

WSU -- non-conference SOS 76:
2-0 vs. top 50 RPI
2-1 vs. 51-100 RPI
1-0 vs. 101-150 RPI
6-0 vs. 150+ RPI

Evansville -- non-conference SOS 118:
0-3 vs. top 50 RPI
0-0 vs. 51-100 RPI
1-1 vs. 101-150 RPI
5-1 vs. 150+ RPI

Drake -- non-conference SOS 120:
0-1 vs. top 50 RPI
0-4 vs. 51-100 RPI
1-0 vs. 101-150 RPI
4-0 vs. 150+ RPI

Creighton -- non-conference SOS 133:
2-1 vs. top 50 RPI
4-0 vs. 51-100 RPI
1-0 vs. 101-150 RPI
4-0 vs. 150+ RPI

So Creighton played more top 50 RPI teams, more top 100 RPI teams, more top 150 RPI teams than everyone else in this list -- and has the worst non-conference strength of schedule of this group? For crying out loud, Evansville only played 3 teams with a top 100 RPI and played 6 teams with an RPI of 150+, but has a better non-conference strength of schedule?

[cpacmel]

SOS doesn't take into account how you did against teams, so it's kind of pointless to put the W-L records.

There are 347 schools this year in DI

Creighton played:

Longwood (340)

Presbyterian (344)

Throw in a North Texas (272) and you have your answer about the Jays and NON-Conf SOS.

You have to look at the schedule from top to bottom and everything in between. Played 2 of the worst 7 teams in college basketball is going to hurt a team's SOS. Just playing 2 of the top 7 would help it.

And I am not saying the Jays schedule is bad. But if you are looking for reasons why it isn't as good as other teams, peel back the onion some more.

[GoShockers89]

A raw list of opponent's RPI also neglects the big boost you get for road games. For example, WSU's wins at #37 VCU and #65 Air Force were both true road games and juice the SoS with rocket fuel.

Creighton will get a nice strength of schedule boost from the St. Mary's trip, but it won't be enough to leapfrog ISUb or WSU for the tiebreaker.