Who plays Thursday in St. Louis?

by **Aargh** » February 19th, 2013, 9:00 pm

SIU and Drake, look like locks. MSU has a game @ IlSU, which makes it likely that MSU will be playing on Thursday.

Then it gets interesting. Illinois State, Bradly, and Evansville.

IlSU has @UE, MSU, @UNI
BU has @DU, CU, and @MSU
UE has IlSU, @WSU, InSU

IlSU has the toughest schedule, but they're on fire and probably just a bit (or more) pissed.
UE has two home games, but they're against two of the hottest teams in the league right now.
BU appears to have the easiest schedule, but the weaker teams on their schedule are both road games.

I don't have non-con SoS numbers - just the overall numbers. the overall SoS numbers only work after both teams have plyed their complete Valley seasons, but check this out:

SOS for UE and IlSU
IlSU: 115
UE: 116

UE's BB opponent has an RPI of 151, IlSU's BB opponent has an RPI of 114, so I think IlSU will end up with the tie breaker. BU's SoS is in the 170's so they're at the bottom end of any tie breaker.

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by **pafan** » February 19th, 2013, 9:41 pm

I'll go with the following:
10. Southern (4-14)
9. Drake (6-12)
8. MSU (7-11)
7. Bradley (8-10)

Southern is a stone-cold lead pipe lock on Thursday, and very likely to be 10th.

I'll give Drake a win at home against Southern. Drake losing out wouldn't be surprising, but SIU would still be 10th based on the SoS tiebreaker. MSU will beat Bradley on their home court.

So, the Braves limp into the 7th spot, finishing 1-2 (including a home loss to Creighton).

Evansville will win any two-way tiebreaker with Bradley, so the Aces going 1-2 still puts them in the 6th seed. With a win against Illinois State tomorrow, Evansville would own any tiebreaker with Bradley (all on SOS)

Basically, I'm playing the odds. To combine the four Thursday spots into one number:
Odds of Thursday, current as of this moment (per Hacksaw on the MVCFans.com blog)
SIU: 100%
DU: 93%
MSU: 92%
BU: 62%
EVAN: 32%
ILSU: 22%
WSU, CU, INSU, UNI: 0

by **Snaggletooth** » February 19th, 2013, 9:54 pm

my vote is I hope ISUR is playing on Thursday.

by **jackwagon** » February 19th, 2013, 10:01 pm

Too bad ISUB can't get there. They deserve to play on thursday! Being for real though ISUR will probably be a dangerous 7 seed. MSU, Drake, and and SIU will round out the thursday night slaughter pigs.