LOOKING AHEAD

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LOOKING AHEAD

Postby BEARZ77 » February 26th, 2019, 4:15 pm

I know everyone is currently caught up in the excitement of the race and pending tournament action, but I've started working on a project for the Bear Nation Board to help our fans/members be knowledgeable about what the MVC will look like heading into the spring recruiting period and summer. It'll feature summaries of every Valley's teams rosters once graduation hits, current commits , and then can be easily updated as either additional players commit or transfer out. My point right now is simply, that in reviewing many other fan boards, I've picked up on an impression that the Valley will be down again next year because of the loss of senior talent from the league.

Personally, I don't share that perception . Obviously there are a couple situations that are fluid , most likely at SIU and possibly Indiana State; others would seem less likely either by coaching termination or coaches being poached. Like wise , rosters could fluctuate a bit, as we saw the spring transfer situation explode last year and there's always late HS and juco signings to come. But in general, I see the Valley as poised to take a step back up next year because of the returning and incoming talent, and the increased stability of the coaching situations. Teams like UNI and Bradley have almost everyone of consequence back under veteran coaches. Valpo likewise has almost a complete return of their roster and had A-10 and Big East transfers sitting out this year. Loyola and MSU have several upper tier players back, along with well regarded recruiting classes, and MSU also had a pair of seasoned transfers sitting out. Illinois State while losing it's core, had 3 D-1 double digit scorers sitting out , ready to go next year. Evansville , has a pair of transfers sitting out plus the possible addition of their top recruit from last year who was ineligible this season. Drake has 3 starters back , a transfer sitting out and a decent recruiting class signed. And on and on. Simply, I see an awful lot of young talent returning and being added that more than compensates for the senior class losses. And of course as noted, there will be more by the start of classes next Aug/Sept.

The point is, I think the last couple years were the down years as we had at least 5 programs trending with negative coaching situations, a brand new member, and a couple of our upper level programs who seemed to be treading water a bit. While I do expect the conference season to be brutal again next year , I think we will see a number of teams much more competitive out of the gate in the noncon portion, and that will help negate the impact of beating up each other. Anyway, looking forward to laying some of this out in detail and then of course getting feedback , additions and corrections from the home team fan bases as the spring and summer proceed. But I think the league will be significantly better next year. :Cheers:
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LOOKING AHEAD

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Re: LOOKING AHEAD

Postby MissouriValleyUnite » February 26th, 2019, 6:35 pm

Point is, I think the last couple years were the down years


2018 actually a great year. Finished 8th with a numerical rating (.5271) roughly equidistant from 7th (.5386) and 9th (.5173). 6 P5 non-con wins & 3-0 vs AAC. Final 4 run the cherry on top.

2012, 2013, & 2018 are the only times the Valley finished 8th since the mid-2000s golden era.
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Re: LOOKING AHEAD

Postby BEARZ77 » February 26th, 2019, 7:11 pm

I know the FF was huge and the overall conference rank was solid, but I can't call it a great year when we only got one team in the Dance . Now that may have to be the new reality going forward, but I still think we can be good enough to have 2-3 tourney worthy teams at least in consideration in really good years. W/O the auto bid, we might not have had any team in these last 2 years[ and i know that would have been stupid for Loyola, but that was what we were led to believe]. In the mid 2000's we had 3-4 tourney worthy teams a # of years.
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Re: LOOKING AHEAD

Postby valleyclimber » February 26th, 2019, 8:41 pm

Bear277, I appreciate your nice summary of next season's Valley. I've been thinking the same thing all season while watching a ton of MVC games. There are so many talented underclassmen right now in the Valley. Next season's non-con should be a vast improvement as many of this season's MVC teams will hit the ground running and do it up right. The exceptions may be SIU and ISUR (which will be a bit of a mystery).

Anyhow, the naysayers about the quality of next year's Valley may ultimately be proved very wrong. I know I'm already psyched about how the MVC teams will be much more competitive in the non-con, and we as fans know how important it is to kick some non-Valley butts.

Glad others are also seeing an uptick for the MVC. 8-)

ROCK ON VALLEY!! :dance:
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Re: LOOKING AHEAD

Postby Sir Sci » February 27th, 2019, 8:29 am

I'm excited to hear about this BEARZ77! I look forward to seeing the product you create on Bear Nation.
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Re: LOOKING AHEAD

Postby Adunk33 » February 27th, 2019, 9:30 am

Ironically, I just posted about the Redbird's future on ILST's board.

The idea that the Valley will be down again is interesting. We were supposed the two of the teams that were projected to be two of the worst teams in the league are currently battling for the No.1 spot. They do lose a lot from seniors but their coaches seem to be trending in a way to be better next year. I believe Mo State can and will be toward the top of the league next season and that Jared Ridder will improve to battle for "best sophomore," with AJ Green. Drake has more to replace with Ellingson and McGlynn, we'll see what DD cooks up for them. From an outsider's perspective on all of these, I do see Loyola taking a step back. It will be Williamson's team to lead now, and Krutwig needs to take another step forward. He's a great player but unless Kaifes ups his scoring, which I think he will over time, Krutwig will be easier to key in on. Williamson isn't necessarily known as a scorer. UNI is also interesting with another year of Green and hopefully less injuries. Bradley should have a better year, only losing DLO as a significant senior, maybe Van Bree, and I'm sure BU fans will tell you they have the best incoming recruiting class ever :lol: Valpo should have most of their team back. Indiana State should be better with another year of Barnes, who will get back on track, and Key. Not to mention Neese and Williams are really good. I have no idea what to expect out of Evansville but they were competitive in a lot of games this year when Marty Simmons' teams would have rolled over. SIU should be in rebuild mode but after this season, maybe new coaches have luck in this league. SIU loses a lot in their senior class.

Now for ILST. Approaching with guarded optimism as I do every year, they will be the most experienced inexperienced team of all time. They have five guys sitting out right now who have been a great scout team. So they have a lot of experience playing together, but no in-game action. Muller's 2018 recruiting class was built to "reload" rather than rebuild. Now, I don't know how or if that will translate to games but bringing in three guys with D1, and a highly touted big man in Abdou N'Daiye (Chose ILST over Wichita, UNLV, and Georgetown) experience certainly looks good on paper.

Muller mentioned recently the team's need is not big men. He has 3.5 of them sitting out this year and will bring back freshman Rey Idowu. I say 3.5 Jaycee Hillsman is more of a wing but is a physical 6'7 guy. With three scholarships remaining, recruiting will be focused on bringing in a point guard and a wing. Hopefully the point guard is an experienced JUCO guy who can run the offense- but it will likely be a combo guard, because since Paris Lee, Muller seems to like the versatile guys more. It would be fitting for the wing to be a freshman who would benefit from a RS year. We have two guys in Matt Chastain and Ike Gassman who are not currently on scholarship. Chastain clearly deserves one but is also a character guy who won't take one if he doesn't need it for the betterment of the team. Gassman is the same way.

Here is how the Birds' scholarships break down next season:
Guards : Josh Jefferson (Sr), Matt Hein (Sr), Zach Copeland (Sr), Dedric Boyd (Soph-tr from EKU), and DJ Horne (Fr) WO: Ilijah Donnelly (Jr-tr from D2 UIS)
Wings: Jaycee(Sr-tr from SJSU), WO: Ike Gassman (Jr) and Matt Chastain (Jr)
Forwards: Abdou N'Diaye (Fr), Rey Idowu (Soph), Taylor Bruninga (Soph), and Keith Fisher (Soph-tr from SJSU)
10 of 13 are filled.
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Re: LOOKING AHEAD

Postby goramblers2011 » February 27th, 2019, 9:49 am

In terms of recruiting, PrepHoops came out with (I believe) its final 2019 rankings. https://www.prephoops.com/2019-national-rankings/

MVC players (apologies if I missed anyone):

160. Marquise Kennedy (Loyola)
196. Nate Freguson (Drake)
206. Tom Welch (Loyola)
239. Noah Carter (UNI)
253. Stephan Gabriel (Bradley)
291. Joseph Yesufu (Drake)
313. Tyem Freeman (Missouri State)
325. Dajuan Harris (Missouri State)
344. Paxson Wojcik (Loyola)
348. Cobie Barnes (Indiana State)
364. Treauhn Williams (Indiana State)
381. Lance Jones (SIU)
389. Cole Henry (UNI)
463. Issa Samake (Drake)
480. James Betz (UNI)
489. Antonio Thomas (Bradley)
490. Jamonta Black (Missouri State)
491. Jared Hankins (Indiana State)
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Re: LOOKING AHEAD

Postby BEARZ77 » February 27th, 2019, 10:26 am

The various rankings are always interesting; I try to look at 3-4 different ones and if I see some similar consensus, then I feel pretty good about where that player fits . Scout/247 Sports use the same ratings and have the following Valley players in their top 450, no other Valley players are listed.

Tyem Freeman 234, MSU
Tom Welch 247,LOC
Marquis Kennedy 248,LOC
Dajuan Harris 329, MSU
Chris Payton 334 , SIU
Paxson Wojcik 339,LOC

I'm sure there are other lists that have some of the incoming Valley players mentioned on prep hoops as well. It's a good recruiting year for the Valley. Bears also have the #5 ranked juco player[ Juco Recruiting.Com] in 6'9 Gaige Prim and may still be in the running for Black/Harris teammate Isiaih Mosley who is @ 283 for Scout/247 Sports
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Re: LOOKING AHEAD

Postby tdawgs87 » February 27th, 2019, 11:02 am

goramblers2011 wrote:In terms of recruiting, PrepHoops came out with (I believe) its final 2019 rankings. https://www.prephoops.com/2019-national-rankings/

MVC players (apologies if I missed anyone):

160. Marquise Kennedy (Loyola)
196. Nate Freguson (Drake)
206. Tom Welch (Loyola)
239. Noah Carter (UNI)
253. Stephan Gabriel (Bradley)
291. Joseph Yesufu (Drake)
313. Tyem Freeman (Missouri State)
325. Dajuan Harris (Missouri State)
344. Paxson Wojcik (Loyola)
348. Cobie Barnes (Indiana State)
364. Treauhn Williams (Indiana State)
381. Lance Jones (SIU)
389. Cole Henry (UNI)
463. Issa Samake (Drake)
480. James Betz (UNI)
489. Antonio Thomas (Bradley)
490. Jamonta Black (Missouri State)
491. Jared Hankins (Indiana State)


137. Chris Payton (SIU)
255 Evan Taylor (SIU)
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Re: LOOKING AHEAD

Postby Adunk33 » February 27th, 2019, 11:04 am

tdawgs87 wrote:
137. Chris Payton (SIU)



I was just thinking... is Payton going to make it to SIU? He left or was dismissed from (which ever story you want to believe) his high school team and then Hinson is likely on his way out. Very talented player from Bloomington but seemed like his brother, just couldn't get out of his own way.
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