Revised Conference Predictions

[goramblers2011]

With non-conference wrapping up this week, I thought it'd be interesting to re-visit the "Season Predictions" thread (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5749) and see how things have changed in your view. I'll go first. Overall, it was a pretty disappointing non-conference slate. But it does seems that teams are getting into shape at the right time.

Original Predictions:
1. Drake
2. Loyola
3. UNI
4. Missouri State
5. SIU
6. Valpo
7. Evansville
8. Bradley
9. Indiana State
10. Illinois State

Revised Predictions:
1. Loyola (UP 1): Deep, experienced team. No "superstars" but 8 or 9 guys who would start on most Valley teams. Lucas Williamson is still a lockdown defender (should win another DPOY) but can also really take the ball to the hoop. At-large chances still in decent shape with what should hopefully be two Q1 wins (@DePaul and @Vandy). Cancellation of the @Davidson game and losing the Michigan St. game at the buzzer hurt. No bad losses in non-conf. #15 in NET, #22 in KenPom, #9 in Haslametrics.

2. Drake (DOWN 1): I still really like this team. Great coaching and experienced. I think their at-large chances may be shot (barring an 18-0 or 17-1 run in Valley play). Need to get healthy. Roman Penn makes the offense go--if it turns out his injury keeps him out a significant portion of Valley play, Drake drops down a few spots.

3. Missouri State (UP 1): A tale old as time itself down in Springfield. Top level talent, subpar coaching and inconsistency. Ugly losses to SEMO and ETSU. Good showings vs BYU, ORU and SDSU. Doesn't help that they've already lost to a likely Thursday team in their Valley opener. Need to get Mosley straight. If they can do they, Prim/Minnett/Mosley is a very dangerous 1-2-3 punch. I am already picturing Minnett hitting bail out deep 3's in Gentile after Loyola plays 28 seconds of lockdown defense.

4. SIU (UP 1): Still not sure what to make of this team. They have a nice win vs Colorado but bad losses vs Little Rock and Northeastern. Strong defensive team. I think this is the kind of team that can beat any Valley team on any given day but also lose to any team. Another team that needs to get back to full health.

5. Bradley (UP 3): The Braves have one of the more terrible non-conf losses vs Howard at home. However, they've won 6 of their last 7 and seem to be clicking. Terry Roberts is looking like a certifiable star--and we all said that if Bradley can find good guard play, they'd exceed expectations. And Roberts seems to be that guy. Tough defensive team, as always under Wardle.

6. UNI (DOWN 3): Panthers are a bit of a mess. Phyfe is really struggling with his post-COVID symptoms. Green is extremely inconsistent. They have one of the better MVC non-conf wins (@Bonnies) but have struggled against teams they really should be beating. I pegged them at 6 but really could make an argument for them to finish in in the top 3 or in the bottom 3. Who knows with this team

7. Valpo (DOWN 1): I may be a bit lower on the Beacons than other. With King playing and looking pretty strong, this is a team that could sneak into the top 4. Krikke & King are both All MVC quality players. No notable wins in non-conf and a few ugly losses makes me think this team will be on the PIG borderline.

8. Illinois State (UP 2): Played SLU tough. Already beat Missouri State. But also has a home loss to Jackson State and struggled vs Chicago State. This is one of the better offensive teams in the Valley and will be looking to run and gun. I think they've exceeded expectations so far and could be fighting to stay out of Thursday.

9. Indiana State (N/A): With a healthy Key, I think this could be a non-Thursday team. Even without him, they could surprise a few teams--they played Loyola tough at Gentile. Ultimately, the level of talent on the roster just isn't enough to compete in the grind of an MVC schedule. Brighter future ahead for the Trees.

10. Evansville (DOWN 3): One of the worst offensive teams I've seen. They will try to beat a few Valley teams by keeping the game in the 50s or low 60s (as they did vs SIU) and Givance is a really nice player. I can't see them winning more than 5 games in Valley play with the offense they run. Think a coaching change is needed after this year.

[BCPanther]

Good Thread!

Original Predictions-
1-UNI
2-Drake
3-Missouri State
4-Loyola
5-Southern Illinois
6-Indiana State
7-Bradley
8-Evansville
9-Valpo
10-Illinois State

Revised--

1-Loyola (Up 3)- Still weary of a 30 year old first time head coach, especially with the grind of league play but having experienced guards makes every team better.

2-Missouri State (Up 1)- Dana isn't setting the world on fire on the bench but there's something to be said for the ability to put the ball in the bucket and having 3 different guys that can beat you on any given night. I don't love the supporting cast but I like the top 3 enough to put them here.

3-Drake (Down 1)-Hemphill isn't the same player post injury and we don't know how long Penn is going to be out and what he looks like when he gets back. Relying on a freshman as much as they're going to have to rely on DeVries leads to inconsistency.

4-UNI (Down 3)-This team is maddening and has done a lot of 'just good enough to lose' so far (4 December losses by a combined 14 points). The other big factor is they've only had 2 practices all year where everyone was available. If, and its a big IF, everyone gets and stays healthy this team can be better than it's shown. Much better team when Born gets minutes and looks to score.

5-Bradley (Up 2)-The surprise of the league for me. Roberts has been fantastic and the frontcourt has been pretty consistent. A couple head scratchers, which you'll get with inexperience, but all in all a real solid start.

6-Southern Illinois (Down 1)-They are what I thought they were. Solid if unspectacular and they'll make you play well to beat them. Scoring is going to be a problem on nights where Domask and/or Jones struggle. Next year is the year they turn the corner.

7-Illinois State (Up 3)-They seem to play harder than they have the past couple years and Muller is getting the most out of what he has so far. You've still got the same chemistry concerns but they're better than I thought they'd be. Might be saving Dan's job.

8-Valpo (Up 1)-I still don't trust Lottich at all but Krikke and King are a nice pair to build around. They'll probably win some they shouldn't but I have a tough time seeing enough consistency from them to climb much higher.

9-Indiana State (Down 3)-The Key injury is the elephant in the room and took away the ability to overachieve. They play hard, the recruiting is promising so far but this is going to be a tough one for the Trees.

10-Evansville (Down 2)-They just aren't very good and their core is a bunch of older guys. Looks like its going to be rinse and repeat with firing a coach and trying a rebuild again.

[acecard1]

Good Thread!

Original Predictions-
1-UNI
2-Drake
3-Missouri State
4-Loyola
5-Southern Illinois
6-Indiana State
7-Bradley
8-Evansville
9-Valpo
10-Illinois State

Revised--



10-Evansville (Down 2)-They just aren't very good and their core is a bunch of older guys. Looks like its going to be rinse and repeat with firing a coach and trying a rebuild again.

This pretty much sums it up.

[letsgoAces]

My only revision is to place Evansville squarely last. Aces are just bad...real bad. They actually do have some good kids who came in this year and I think eventually will pan out well. But presently this team is totally lost, particularly offensively. There may be some improvement at some point this season, but not enough to get out of the cellar. Coach Lickliter will not be fired. He was hired to help stabilize the program after the McCarty catastrophe. He will leave either this season, but probably next. There are some who believe his top assistant, Logan Baumann, will be next in line. He is considered by some as very bright and innovative. This program badly needs a big boost from somewhere. Here is hoping they will open the job up, and perhaps interview Evansville native David Ragland, and a few others before deciding.

[bleach]

Original:
Drake
Loyola
Missouri State
UNI
Bradley
SIU
ILL St
Evansville
Ind St
Valpo

Revised:
Loyola
Drake
Missouri St
UNI
Bradley
Ill St
SIU
In St
Valpo
Evansville

[SalukiWorld]

Old:
1. Drake
2. Loyola
3. Missouri State
4. Northern Iowa
5. Southern Illinois
6. Indiana State
7. Valpo
8. Bradley
9. Illinois State
10. Evansville

New:
1. Loyola (up 1)
2. Drake (down 1)
3. Missouri State (—)
4. Northern Iowa (—)
5. Bradley (up 3)
6. Southern Illinois (down 1)
7. Valpo (—)
8. Indiana State (down 2)
9. Illinois State (—)
10. Evansville (—)

[Kyle_Saluki_17]

Original:

1. Drake
2. Northern Iowa
3. Loyola
4. SIU
5. Missouri State
6. Evansville
7. Bradley
8. Valpo
9. Indiana State
10. Illinois State

Revised:

1. Loyola (Up 2)
2. Missouri State (Up 3)
3. Drake (Down 2)
4. SIU
5. Indiana State (Up 4)
6. Northern Iowa (Down 4, will cause upsets, but may also lose some bad ones)
7. Bradley
8. Illinois State (Up 2)
9. Valpo (Down 1)
10. Evansville (Down 4)

[Salukimadness86]

Original:

1. Drake
2. Northern Iowa
3. Loyola
4. SIU
5. Missouri State
6. Evansville
7. Bradley
8. Valpo
9. Indiana State
10. Illinois State

Revised:

1. Loyola (Up 2)
2. Missouri State (Up 3)
3. Drake (Down 2)
4. SIU
5. Indiana State (Up 4)
6. Northern Iowa (Down 4, will cause upsets, but may also lose some bad ones)
7. Bradley
8. Illinois State (Up 2)
9. Valpo (Down 1)
10. Evansville (Down 4)

Yeah, Go Bears.

[Kyle_Saluki_17]

Original:

1. Drake
2. Northern Iowa
3. Loyola
4. SIU
5. Missouri State
6. Evansville
7. Bradley
8. Valpo
9. Indiana State
10. Illinois State

Revised:

1. Loyola (Up 2)
2. Missouri State (Up 3)
3. Drake (Down 2)
4. SIU
5. Indiana State (Up 4)
6. Northern Iowa (Down 4, will cause upsets, but may also lose some bad ones)
7. Bradley
8. Illinois State (Up 2)
9. Valpo (Down 1)
10. Evansville (Down 4)

Yeah, Go Bears.

Haha this has more do do with everyone else underwhelming than Mo State being overwhelming.