Overly Excited Early Season Assessment

[Chuck A]

At 24-8 (15-8 minus non-D1), the Valley sits as the #15 rated Conference. Granted, we're only 3 games in (1+ week), but if the so-maligned bottom quadrant of the Valley (UIC, Evansville, Valpo) and Illinois State continue to improve and does relatively well in the upcoming MTEs, what does one think it says about the overall strength of the conference?

UIC & Evansville, from the 3 games I've seen from them with their influx of transfers, are definitely better than last year's respective versions. ISUr looks to be trending up as they were toward the end of last season. Valpo, although losing to IU-Indianapolis, can't be any dreadful than last season.

Is this a better Valley than last season when we finished rated 15 or a league that has improved talent-wise enough to regain a top 10 or better status?

Again, I know it's only been a week, but there is proof of improvement. Is it enough, though, to say, "The Valley is back"?

[squirrel]

15th-rated in what metric?

12th in Pomeroy. (And the last league with a positive overall rating)

8 West Coast
9 AAC
10 A10
11 CUSA
12 Valley
13 Ivy
14 WAC


To your point, yes, I think the league CAN easily be better. Right now you have 3 top 100 teams (BU, DU, Indy St) and a 4th (UNI) knocking on the door at 103.

That pool of teams has games against Nevada, Tulane, Michigan St, North Carolina, Toledo (2x), UAB, Richmond, Duquesne, Akron, Vermont, South Florida, St. Louis, and an improving Rice program. And others pending in holiday tournaments. Hitting 75-85% wins in that grouping of games is a huge improvement over what the league has did last year, but 2022 was a pretty darn good year with the league ranking 11th nationally. I think there is an opportunity to leapfrog 2022 with a strong showing in that grouping of games and other down table.

[Red]

To me it comes down to one metric - can we get at large bids to the NCAA tournament? At this point, I don't think so.

[BuBrave2006]

15th-rated in what metric?

12th in Pomeroy. (And the last league with a positive overall rating)

8 West Coast
9 AAC
10 A10
11 CUSA
12 Valley
13 Ivy
14 WAC


To your point, yes, I think the league CAN easily be better. Right now you have 3 top 100 teams (BU, DU, Indy St) and a 4th (UNI) knocking on the door at 103.

That pool of teams has games against Nevada, Tulane, Michigan St, North Carolina, Toledo (2x), UAB, Richmond, Duquesne, Akron, Vermont, South Florida, St. Louis, and an improving Rice program. And others pending in holiday tournaments. Hitting 75-85% wins in that grouping of games is a huge improvement over what the league has did last year, but 2022 was a pretty darn good year with the league ranking 11th nationally. I think there is an opportunity to leapfrog 2022 with a strong showing in that grouping of games and other down table.

We actually even hopped up to 11th temporarily between when the Evansville and ISU games finished. If you were to take Valpo out, we'd be right where the A-10 is at.

[Chuck A]

To me it comes down to one metric - can we get at large bids to the NCAA tournament? At this point, I don't think so.

Come on Red. Drake and Bradley should be just as strong or stronger than last season. Both of those programs should be in line for a look by the committee. You can't count out Belmont nor Indiana St. either. The league finished 11th and got two teams in in 2022. The weakness of Evansville, Valpo, Illinois State and UIC pulled the league down to 15 in 2023. With those teams improved and the others maintaining or getting better themselves, I don't see why the Valley can't get two...maybe 3 in.

Yeah, I'm an eternal optimist.

[Majik45]

To me it comes down to one metric - can we get at large bids to the NCAA tournament? At this point, I don't think so.

Come on Red. Drake and Bradley should be just as strong or stronger than last season. Both of those programs should be in line for a look by the committee. You can't count out Belmont nor Indiana St. either. The league finished 11th and got two teams in in 2022. The weakness of Evansville, Valpo, Illinois State and UIC pulled the league down to 15 in 2023. With those teams improved and the others maintaining or getting better themselves, I don't see why the Valley can't get two...maybe 3 in.

Yeah, I'm an eternal optimist.

Bradley went to the NIT last year, not the NCAA Tourney, so we only got 1 team in last year. Valpo is gonna be this year, but kudos to the other bottom teams from last year, Evansville and UIC especially, as they have won a couple of games they probably were not expected to win. If we can keep winning the games we are supposed to win, and avoid bad losses, then the conference as a whole will have a much higher rating.

As far as making the tourney goes as an at large, it's going to take a lot, but Drake, Bradley, and Indiana State should all still have a chance at this point. Just got to keep winning games. I mean if UNI or Belmont or Missouri State runs the table on the Non-con, they'd be in line for At Large consideration too. Obviously you probably got to finish top 3 in Valley then as well.

Bottom line, everyone just needs to keep winning.

[Chuck A]

To me it comes down to one metric - can we get at large bids to the NCAA tournament? At this point, I don't think so.

Come on Red. Drake and Bradley should be just as strong or stronger than last season. Both of those programs should be in line for a look by the committee. You can't count out Belmont nor Indiana St. either. The league finished 11th and got two teams in in 2022. The weakness of Evansville, Valpo, Illinois State and UIC pulled the league down to 15 in 2023. With those teams improved and the others maintaining or getting better themselves, I don't see why the Valley can't get two...maybe 3 in.

Yeah, I'm an eternal optimist.

Bradley went to the NIT last year, not the NCAA Tourney, so we only got 1 team in last year. Valpo is gonna be this year, but kudos to the other bottom teams from last year, Evansville and UIC especially, as they have won a couple of games they probably were not expected to win. If we can keep winning the games we are supposed to win, and avoid bad losses, then the conference as a whole will have a much higher rating.

As far as making the tourney goes as an at large, it's going to take a lot, but Drake, Bradley, and Indiana State should all still have a chance at this point. Just got to keep winning games. I mean if UNI or Belmont or Missouri State runs the table on the Non-con, they'd be in line for At Large consideration too. Obviously you probably got to finish top 3 in Valley then as well.

Bottom line, everyone just needs to keep winning.

Agreed. When I spoke of 2 teams in '22, I'm talking about the turn of the new year of '21-'22. Technically, the tourney is in the new year. The season really is in the second half of the academic year.

[sivert]

...

I mean if UNI or Belmont or Missouri State runs the table on the Non-con, they'd be in line for At Large consideration too. ...

In the next week, UNI will play North Carolina and 2 of the following: Villanova, Texas Tech, Michigan, Memphis, Arkansas, and Stanford. So, yeah, is we run the table of the rest of the Non-con, we really ought to be in consideration for an at-large.

But your main point, keep winning, is right. Every Valley win helps. But a couple years ago IIRC, the MVC had a great first week and then proceeded to lose most of our week 2 games.

[BCPanther]

The key is getting as many teams into the top 135 as possible so that those road games are Quad 2 and getting three or four into the top 75 so those road games become Quad 1 and home games are Quad 2. Also if we can keep everybody, other than Valpo, in the Top 240 those road games are Quad 3 instead of Quad 4 which matters.

I'm still really bullish on the top 5/6 and especially UNI and Drake.

[TylerDurden]

As others have stated, winning games is the key. The bad teams need to win in the nonconference just as much as the top-half teams do because it will impact their quadrant, as BC alluded to.

That said, the composite schedule to this point hasn't yielded any eye-opening wins and there's been a lot of non-DI games. There have been a couple of decent wins, but nothing that's moving the needle.

There's some credit due for beating the teams we should beat, and there are some teams with a shot to build an at-large type of resume, but the first week and a half was largely about holding serve and by-and-large, we've done that.

Stack wins in the nonconference, then have the top 2-3 separate during conference play and you have a recipe for multiple bids.