Official 2011-12 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

[WSUbballer]

This is an absolute coin flip between MSU and UE, IMO. A lot of people have already outlined the main postives and negatives for both. UE has never finished above 6th with Marty.. and hasn't in a while. They lost a few starters from last year also. It's hard enough picking UE top half even when they return everybody. Just can't do it until they can prove they can consistently win.

MSU lost a boatload of starters. One player cannot carry a team. Lots of things to prove. The biggest negative factor is the presence of a completely new coaching staff. It's very rare that you ever see a first year coach in this league immediately have their team in position for a top half or top 3 finish. Unheard of, really. I think MSU fans are severely underestimating this important factor.

So with that, I flipped a coin and it told me to vote for MSU.

[BEARZ77]

All true, but strangely enough Barry Hinson took his 1st team to 2nd place and the MVC tourney championship game. He inherited 3 starters off a sweet 16 team, but that didn't include the main guy 6'11 Danny Moore who had graduated and it did include the worst recruiting class the Bears ever had as Alford absolutely tanked it that year before leaving. Not everybody is Barry Hinson though.

[sixth ace]

Thank you MVJ for your kind analysis. Evansville will return 5 juniors, mainly in the backcourt,who have been starting since their freshmen year, 3 seniors, 2 who are Juco players, one with limited playing time and a Sophmore, who most the Valley would love to have on their roster. We have brought in a front court of 3 freshmen ,all 6'8"and a freshman pure shooter. We lost 2 very discipline Centers who average at best 10 rebounds and 12 points per game combined. That may be generous.

I was surprised of the stance you took for Evansville. We haven't seen 2 on Evansville. If fact you may owe me money from last year per Dewey Cheatum and Howe . I orginally thought that the InSU fans were berating Evansville because they didn't match up well to UE. Let's see they were swept and were a 5 second away from 1 and done in the tournament but a finger roll let them go to the NCAA.

I pick MSU because of the loss of players and Head Coaching staff. I pick UE for a Breakout year

Go Aces

[WSUbballer]

[quote="BEARZ77"]All true, but strangely enough Barry Hinson took his 1st team to 2nd place and the MVC tourney championship game. He inherited 3 starters off a sweet 16 team, but that didn't include the main guy 6'11 Danny Moore who had graduated and it did include the worst recruiting class the Bears ever had as Alford absolutely tanked it that year before leaving. Not everybody is Barry Hinson though. [/quote]

3 starters off a Sweet 16 team is a bit more than 1 starter off a 2 and cue NIT team, wouldn't you say? And besides, I said it is very "rare". I didn't say it was a 0% chance. Nothing is 0% in this league. But if you wanna hang on to that type of chance and that type of analogy, then by all means, go for it. I expect to see Lusk on the hot set then in a couple of years.

[UE 71]

If UE's freshmen big men can step in and play like the freshmen guards who are now juniors did, then UE will have a breakout season and will probably finish 3rd or 4th. As I think most Valley teams found out last year, UE plays in your face and does not give up until the buzzer sounds. Good front court play, of which we had little of last year, is the missing ingredient and these newcomers are going to be good.

[pafan]

Going with UNI for 6th, based mostly on their so-so performance last year and feeling that the cupboard is pretty bare for Jake.

[MoValley John]

I don't know if my comments were kind, I still don't see the Aces breaking into the top 3, they just have had a little more success last year and in Marty's first year then in years past. But I also don't see anything that Simmons has done as a coach to indicate that he trends to 6th place finishes. I simply think that as bad as the Aces have been, three years isn't enough time to establish trends. Not only do you need to recruit all new talent, but you need to overcome a culture of losing.

[havoc]

I don't know if my comments were kind, I still don't see the Aces breaking into the top 3, they just have had a little more success last year and in Marty's first year then in years past. But I also don't see anything that Simmons has done as a coach to indicate that he trends to 6th place finishes. I simply think that as bad as the Aces have been, three years isn't enough time to establish trends. Not only do you need to recruit all new talent, but you need to overcome a culture of losing.

Aces were horrific in Marty's first year. His second year was Shy Ely's senior senior when UE was actually respectable.

[BEARZ77]

All true, but strangely enough Barry Hinson took his 1st team to 2nd place and the MVC tourney championship game. He inherited 3 starters off a sweet 16 team, but that didn't include the main guy 6'11 Danny Moore who had graduated and it did include the worst recruiting class the Bears ever had as Alford absolutely tanked it that year before leaving. Not everybody is Barry Hinson though.

3 starters off a Sweet 16 team is a bit more than 1 starter off a 2 and cue NIT team, wouldn't you say? And besides, I said it is very "rare". I didn't say it was a 0% chance. Nothing is 0% in this league. But if you wanna hang on to that type of chance and that type of analogy, then by all means, go for it. I expect to see Lusk on the hot set then in a couple of years.

Wow, I just threw out Barry as a rather comical contradction to your "very rare" assertion about 1st year coaches fairing well in the Valley. Didn't realize you'd get so pissy about it.

If I had been serious about confronting the inaccuracy of that I could have noted how 1st year coaches Matt Painter and Chris Lowery took SIU to MVC titles and NCAA tourneys, how Keno Davis did the same for Drake, how Greg Lansing took ISU to a 3rd spot and an NCAA tourney just last year, how Jank brought Illinois State to a second place finish, or how Alford led the Bears to 4th and Bernsen led the Bears to 3rd their 1st years. Seems like rare is a pretty subjective term.


As far as Lusk and the hot seat, I don't think he has much worry; but one has to wonder if that will be true if the guy making 1.3 million is on the outside looking in for a 5th straight year come MVC title and NCAA tourney time.

[panther-state]

Going with UNI for 6th, based mostly on their so-so performance last year and feeling that the cupboard is pretty bare for Jake.

Really? I would take a much closer look at what UNI is bringing in this season, and the redshirts from last season. The cupboard is ANYTHING but bare.