Air Force's 9-year average kenpom rating is 117. That's decent, but most of the good years were when Bzdelik was there. In 4 years under Jeff Reynolds, their average rating is 188. Last year, the Valley averaged a 139 rating, which is about what Reynolds has done in his best years.
The MWC and MVC are generally fairly even conferences in basketball, so there would not be a recruiting advantage if Air Force changed conferences. Recruiting at Air Force is completely different, so their relative success or failure seems more based on coaching, rather than recruiting. (Nobody over 6'8" and no one at that height can bulk up past 250 is a recruiting restriction at AFA).
I don't see the upside.