Who has legitimate at large chances?

[PowderBlue]

Creighton and Wichita State. If Wichita can get a W at Creighton, then I think they're pretty darn close barring any really ugly upset.

UNI and ISUb are on the outside looking in at this point. They're likely still the third and fourth best teams in the conference regardless of the start, but neither really looks like anything more than an 11 win team in the MVC right now, which won't be enough for an at large regardless of the non con wins. Three teams in is probably the limit for the MVC now, and that may only happen if Wichita gets to Sunday in the conference tournament with the way things have started this year. It's unfortunate that Evansville couldn't gel a little better in the non conference schedule; another <100 RPI would have been really nice to have, especially considering their ability to run with everyone in conference.

[Aargh]

WSU has a lot of work to do to get on the right side of the bubble. WSU is 1-3 against RPI 1-50. 1-2 in OOC. BB could even that up, but I believe WSU has a roadie in BB this year. Going 1-3 OOC against RPI 1-50 is not a good place to be on Selection Sunday.

UNI is 1-1 against 1-50, but Colorado State is their W. CoSt might remain in the top 50. They're at 42 now and are going to have to do well in the MWC to stay that high. St. Mary's has 6 conference opponents in the bottom half of the RPI rankings, so they're likely to drop from their current ranking of 26. UNI also has a huge hole by starting the league at 1-2. They probably need to go something like 13-2 (maybe 12-3) the rest of the season to be in the conversation.

InSU is in a little better shape than UNI. The W over Vandy should hold up as a top-50 W and it's against a "name" team. I don't think InSU has the players to get to 13-5 in league play. 12-6 in the Valley and a second or third-place finish with only 1 OOC W over a top-50 team isn't going to look that impressive in March.

The way this season has started, we have to consider that 12-6 could be in the hunt for second place in the league. That is going to be a huge negative for at large bids. CU looks like they could establish separation from the rest of the league. If they do that, and they win Arch Madness, the Valley could be a one-bid league again.

[beltwaybluejay]

Sagarin has MVC 7th. With losses in the A-10 hard to dispute and would seem to point to at least 2 or 3 in at this time,imo. I think the MVC will have to work hard to not get two in.

[Wufan]

Creighton just needs to win the Valley regular season championship to get in.

WSU needs to win the ones they are supposed and go 13-5 in conference with a BB win and an MVC tourney finals showing. Not an easy task.

Missouri State, Indiana State, and UNI are stil possible at-larges, but their record needs to be VERY good. Must win 14+ conference games the BB and be in the tourney finals. They are all iffy at that point.

I see this as a two bid league unless there is a suprise winner in St Louis.

[shocktheheart]

Interesting way the RPI has affected each team since conference play has started from the WSU beat writer.

http://blogs.kansas.com/shockwaves/2012 ... e-the-rpi/

[omahaben]

I think it is too early to write off UNi or even MSU. Lunardi had MSU in and UNi one of the first teams out. Even InSU could go on a roll and snag a spot. Long season left...

UNI's RPI should be good enough to get them a very solid bracketbusters opponent as well, so they will have another chance for a resume building win outside of the conference.

Lunardi had MSU in as the auto-bid since they were in first. I have no doubts they would not have been in as an at-large.

Creighton and Wichita are in if they finish 1-2. A 3rd bid is possible but unlikely; it'd take a 15-3 record by MSU, UNI, or InSU, or a tournament run by anyone other than CU and WSU.

[valleychamp]

There are still 4 teams with at-large chances. CU, WSU, UNI, and IN St. MSU has no chance, IMO, with what they did in the OOC. The MVC is still in very good shape.

Some of you overreact way too much to a few losses. The season is very long, and there are a ton of games left. The conference did very well OOC this year, and we have some national respect. In '06 when we got 4 teams in, we got teams in that had double digit losses. Its way to early to write teams off now. We probably aren't quite as good as we were 6 years ago, but we are good enough that a few losses will not kill you.

[Jet915]

Looking at Lunardi's bracket, there appears to be some weak at large teams. I think 13-5, a BB win and atleast one valley tourney win can put u in the discussion.

[valleychamp]

I will also add that re: UNI's resume, Iowa and ISU are a combined 3-0 in the B10 and B12 with wins over Wisc, Minn, and Texas. If they can continue to pick up some good wins like that throughout the year, those two wins for UNI are looking a bit better.

[omahaben]

Interesting way the RPI has affected each team since conference play has started from the WSU beat writer.

http://blogs.kansas.com/shockwaves/2012 ... e-the-rpi/

This isn't surprising. RPIs will tend towards the middle during conference season, as the worse teams drag down the better ones and the better ones pull up the weaker ones simply by playing each other.

For NCAA bids, though, it's still better to have your top teams separate themselves. Having 10 teams from 75-100 in the RPI means you're a one-bid league. Having 3 teams in the top 25, 4 around the 100 mark, and 3 in the 250+ range means you're a 3-bid league.

UNI dropping 30 spots is far more hurtful than Illinois St. jumping 100 helps.