2012-13 discussion

[MoValley John]

I do not count out the Shockers at all. Their recruiting has been first rate and they are becoming a program that is a reload, not rebuild. If you look what they gave coming in this year, they are every bit, or even more-so, athletic as they were this year. They lose Stutz, who could dominate smaller posts, but he almost always disappeared in games where he was pitted against a quality big man. Even in the Shocker's rout over the Bluejays in Omaha, Stutz did very little against Echineque. While EO may not be an offensive juggernaut, he will defend Echineque much better than Stutz could.

My only concerns with Shocker recruiting is that GG is still augmenting his roster with too many juco's and transfers. My philosophy is that a few one and two year guys are great, they fill obvious, immediate needs, but consistency is built by having a stable loaded with four year players. When you have too many one or two year guys, and a few of them don't pan out, it can be disastrous. That said, I don't see that with the 2012-13 version of the Shockers.

For the coming year, I do see Creighton taking another step forward. They only lose Young, but he will be replaced by Austin Chatman, who proved as this last season wore on, he will be more than just an adequate replacement. Creighton also gains another big man, 7' Geoff Groselle, from what I have heard, is everything that was reported when he signed last year. Most schools wouldn't have had the luxury to redshirt him, but with Echineque and others to fill the post, Creighton did. He had a year to practice and bang against Echineque, for a big man he is very quick, a great passer and tenacious defender. He possesses a great shot with soft touch and what is lacking in Echineque, Groselle's range extends to the three point line. While I always saw Wichita State as the most athletic team in the Valley, I always saw Creighton as the most fundamentally sound and smartest. I think they close the athletic talent gap somewhat without losing in the basketball IQ department. With as good as Creighton was this last year, I only see them better next.

Just as this year was a cluster in the middle, I see the same happening again next year. A whole lot of quality and parity. I know Jank once again impressed everyone in St Louis, but count me in as part of the seemingly smaller and smaller minority that isn't sold on him. I have believed, and still do, that in his tenure in the Valley, Jank has assembled the most talent, year in and year out. It shouldn't take a great coach until March to figure out how to use that talent. That said, this could be the year he does. Then again, maybe not. One of these days, he will prove me wrong.

My very rough and too early to pin me down as my final preseason predictions as to how the Valley shakes out.

1. Creighton - First time I have picked them. They are loaded and have a whole offseason to figure out how they came short last year. Talent and experience combined with disappointment equals hunger and danger.
2. Wichita State - Going to be much better than people think. More defensive oriented, but not lacking in highlight reel dunks, either!
3. Illinois State - Strong finish. Dangerous again in St Louis. I Don't give Jank the credit to win the whole season.
4. UNI - Always good. Very blue collar. Lacking a go to gamechanger type player, but very solid top to bottom.
5. Evansville - Lost some players, but Three words, Colt effing Ryan.
6. Missouri State - Weems is gone. He seemed like a head case this last year, but you cannot argue his talent and he will be missed. Expectations in Springfield might be more realistic this year. Who knows?
7. Indiana State - Still not sold. In fact, more Credit for the resurgence should be given to McKenna. He's gone. Indiana State is who we thought they were. Better than five years ago, not as good as two years ago.
8. SIU - Sentimental bump in how I think they will do, simply throwing some goodwill to Hinson. Go Barry!
9. Bradley - They will be better this year. And competitive. But it will take a couple of years for Geno to fix the mess. They will play with heart and enthusiasm.
10. Drake - Prior to Rice leaving, I had them much higher. They are one of my three favorite teams and it pains me to place them at the bottom. What seemed like a pleasant offseason has me wondering about Phelps and his future.

[valleychamp]

I feel that Creighton is the clear favorite, and at this point I feel as though ISU, UNI, and WSU round out the top 4 teams. In what order? I don't know. I feel that these 4 are above the rest at this point, and I would possibly put Drake up with them too if not for the loss of Rice.

ISU had a good couple of games to close out the season, but for the whole rest of the season they were just as mediocre as everybody else. I really love their starting 5, and I love the fact that their two best players are a good PG and a monster big man. If they can play like they did in the last 4 games of the year, they will be championship contenders. One problem with them is (once again) their schedule. They are going to have to either a) win a ton of games, or b) win arch madness to make the NCAA's.

UNI has everybody returning, but how good they will be will depend on how good the redshirted big man Olivier will be, and how good Nate Buss will be on the wing, IMO. If those guys are good, then UNI is a really good team and a championship contender. This is a veteran team, a very deep team, and they have, IMO, the best coach in the MVC. This should be a year that UNI can get back to the NCAA tournament. One thing UNI has in its favor is an absolutely stellar non-conf schedule, with plenty of chances to make a splash.

WSU is the hardest to figure out because they are so unknown at this point. They appear to have a really good amount of talent on their roster next year yet, but you just never know how they are going to fit together. Its hard to replace as many good players as they will have to do next year. You could realistically make an argument for them to finish 2nd or for them to finish 8th. You just don't know until they get on the court together. Right now IMO, I think they will definitely be a top 4 team, and if everything falls right for them, they too could be a contender.

[Wufan]

I feel that Creighton is the clear favorite, and at this point I feel as though ISU, UNI, and WSU round out the top 4 teams. In what order? I don't know. I feel that these 4 are above the rest at this point, and I would possibly put Drake up with them too if not for the loss of Rice.

ISU had a good couple of games to close out the season, but for the whole rest of the season they were just as mediocre as everybody else. I really love their starting 5, and I love the fact that their two best players are a good PG and a monster big man. If they can play like they did in the last 4 games of the year, they will be championship contenders. One problem with them is (once again) their schedule. They are going to have to either a) win a ton of games, or b) win arch madness to make the NCAA's.

UNI has everybody returning, but how good they will be will depend on how good the redshirted big man Olivier will be, and how good Nate Buss will be on the wing, IMO. If those guys are good, then UNI is a really good team and a championship contender. This is a veteran team, a very deep team, and they have, IMO, the best coach in the MVC. This should be a year that UNI can get back to the NCAA tournament. One thing UNI has in its favor is an absolutely stellar non-conf schedule, with plenty of chances to make a splash.

WSU is the hardest to figure out because they are so unknown at this point. They appear to have a really good amount of talent on their roster next year yet, but you just never know how they are going to fit together. Its hard to replace as many good players as they will have to do next year. You could realistically make an argument for them to finish 2nd or for them to finish 8th. You just don't know until they get on the court together. Right now IMO, I think they will definitely be a top 4 team, and if everything falls right for them, they too could be a contender.

Hard to argue this post.

[Aargh]

Almost everybody has WSU way too high. WSU lost maybe 80% of last year's minutes at the perimeter positions and a 7' first team All-Valley player. After the S16 year, all WSUY lost was the post player and that knocked WSU from 1st to 6th in the Valley.

The recruiting class is solid, but relying on Fr is always a gamble. JuCos often take half a season to get the feel of D1 ball (if they ever do). I don't think the Shox will be a Thursday team, but Marshall would have to be CoY again next year to get the Shox into the top 3 or 4.

[Village Jay]

Almost everybody has WSU way too high. WSU lost maybe 80% of last year's minutes at the perimeter positions and a 7' first team All-Valley player. After the S16 year, all WSUY lost was the post player and that knocked WSU from 1st to 6th in the Valley.

The recruiting class is solid, but relying on Fr is always a gamble. JuCos often take half a season to get the feel of D1 ball (if they ever do). I don't think the Shox will be a Thursday team, but Marshall would have to be CoY again next year to get the Shox into the top 3 or 4.

100% agree. History is on the side of this arguement. 2007-08 Creighton Bluejays (P'Allen's Freshman year, the year following Funk, Tolliver, & Porter) was similar to what Wichita can expect. That was the year Drake won it all in a one-bid Valley. Creighton barely finished 4th, thanks to Cavel Witters heroics. Marshall and Altman are both great coaches so I expect Marshall to keep WSU competive. Dane Watts = Carl Hall IMO. The big difference is that I believe next year's Valley is deep with experience. This won't be a 1 bid league so I don't think WSU will be able to finish higher than 4th, but 5th or 6th is more likely.

Last year's Missouri St is another example of replacing a senior heavy team. They finished 6th and had the player of the year returning. Kyle Weems > Carl Hall, but Marshall > new Coach Lusk - so call it even/slight advantage Wichita for Marshall factor > Weems Factor.

Using this analysis I'd have WSU as a 5 seed for next year. But I will stand by my Indiana St in that slot only beating WSU on a coin flip making WSU a 6 seed.

[sixth ace]

Evansville was the 3 seed in the tournament, lost no one in the starting lineup, graduated one non playing senior,a juco who didn't get it,and the Aces will play on Thursday??? Next time that guy comes thru town with whatever ya'll are smoking, please share. My name ain't Skip, Boggie

[valleychamp]

:huh: Evansville was the 3 seed in the tournament, lost no one in the starting lineup, graduated one non playing senior,a juco who didn't get it,and the Aces will play on Thursday??? Next time that guy comes thru town with whatever ya'll are smoking, please share. My name ain't Skip, Boggie

Kennith Harris and Denver Holmes are both gone, correct? Both seniors, and were the 2nd and 3rd leading scorers on the team. They were huge parts of that team, especially Holmes. Maybe it is you that is smoking something??

Not to mention the fact that they have no size, and limited depth.

And please, lets not have the "we were the 3 seed so we were obviously better" argument again.

[sixth ace]

:huh: Evansville was the 3 seed in the tournament, lost no one in the starting lineup, graduated one non playing senior,a juco who didn't get it,and the Aces will play on Thursday??? Next time that guy comes thru town with whatever ya'll are smoking, please share. My name ain't Skip, Boggie

Kennith Harris and Denver Holmes are both gone, correct? Both seniors, and were the 2nd and 3rd leading scorers on the team. They were huge parts of that team, especially Holmes. Maybe it is you that is smoking something??

Not to mention the fact that they have no size, and limited depth.

And please, lets not have the "we were the 3 seed so we were obviously better" argument again.

Excuse me you are correct. The Aces did lose Holmes and Harris but lets see A senior backcourt and a 4 man 6'8 Sophmore front court that played their freshman year extensively, along with a 6'6 redshirt sophmore by the name of Jahr.

Oh yeah I believe we did sweep UNI last year

[iSASO]

WSU is not a contender. Remember, Marshall is "in over his head in this conference."

[FeartheQ]

Last year's Missouri St is another example of replacing a senior heavy team. They finished 6th and had the player of the year returning. Kyle Weems > Carl Hall, but Marshall > new Coach Lusk - so call it even/slight advantage Wichita for Marshall factor > Weems Factor.

Using this analysis I'd have WSU as a 5 seed for next year. But I will stand by my Indiana St in that slot only beating WSU on a coin flip making WSU a 6 seed.

We tied for third.