Official 2015-16 MVCfans.com Prediction - 5th Place

[Play Angry]

Evansville, UNI, Loyola and Illinois State are all pretty interchangeable to me from a projections standpoint. I am just hoping (at least) one of them can break out and manage 13 or 14 wins in conference play...preferably after not shitting the bed in the OOC.

I guess I'll vote Illinois State here but it would be zero surprise to me if they wind up finishing 2nd this year. Choosing these next 4 is a dart toss.

[Tom Servo]

I went with Loyola...

Bottom line from an Aces perspective is that if they don't get the job done this year, it ain't happening. This is the most talent they have had since 99. There is no excuse to finish anywhere below 2nd with two first team players, a Juco all american, a Villanova transfer, and a guy who finished second in Indiana Mr. Basketball this year. I mean, that is enough to get the job done.

The question is, as always, who will be on the floor and how will they be utilized. If the Aces play fast and everyone is a threat, they will finish second. If not, they very will could finish right here.

Evansville's record the last 5 years when they score:
70 or More: 62-21 (.747 win percentage)

Less than 70: 28-57 (.329 win percentage)

We have to play faster...

[sixth ace]

Bottom line from an Aces perspective is that if they don't get the job done this year, it ain't happening. This is the most talent they have had since 99. There is no excuse to finish anywhere below 2nd with two first team players, a Juco all american, a Villanova transfer, and a guy who finished second in Indiana Mr. Basketball this year. I mean, that is enough to get the job done.

The question is, as always, who will be on the floor and how will they be utilized. If the Aces play fast and everyone is a threat, they will finish second. If not, they very will could finish right here.

Evansville's record the last 5 years when they score:
70 or More: 62-21 (.747 win percentage)

Less than 70: 28-57 (.329 win percentage)

We have to play faster...

+1 This but I went with Illinois State. Hopefully shaving off 5 seconds on the play clock makes Evansville a better team.

[Born2Shock]

Bottom line from an Aces perspective is that if they don't get the job done this year, it ain't happening. This is the most talent they have had since 99. There is no excuse to finish anywhere below 2nd with two first team players, a Juco all american, a Villanova transfer, and a guy who finished second in Indiana Mr. Basketball this year. I mean, that is enough to get the job done.

The question is, as always, who will be on the floor and how will they be utilized. If the Aces play fast and everyone is a threat, they will finish second. If not, they very will could finish right here.

Evansville's record the last 5 years when they score:
70 or More: 62-21 (.747 win percentage)

Less than 70: 28-57 (.329 win percentage)

We have to play faster...

+1 This but I went with Illinois State. Hopefully shaving off 5 seconds on the play clock makes Evansville a better team.

Is there a correlation between scoring 70points and the quality of the opponent?

[Tom Servo]

Bottom line from an Aces perspective is that if they don't get the job done this year, it ain't happening. This is the most talent they have had since 99. There is no excuse to finish anywhere below 2nd with two first team players, a Juco all american, a Villanova transfer, and a guy who finished second in Indiana Mr. Basketball this year. I mean, that is enough to get the job done.

The question is, as always, who will be on the floor and how will they be utilized. If the Aces play fast and everyone is a threat, they will finish second. If not, they very will could finish right here.

Evansville's record the last 5 years when they score:
70 or More: 62-21 (.747 win percentage)

Less than 70: 28-57 (.329 win percentage)

We have to play faster...

+1 This but I went with Illinois State. Hopefully shaving off 5 seconds on the play clock makes Evansville a better team.

Is there a correlation between scoring 70points and the quality of the opponent?

There certainly is to an extent. However a couple times we only scored 50 (or less) against weak MVC teams in the last few years and ended up losing because we got sucked into the stall game. We scored fifty points against Bradley at home last year........

[Cdizzle]

The question is, as always, who will be on the floor and how will they be utilized. If the Aces play fast and everyone is a threat, they will finish second. If not, they very will could finish right here.

Evansville's record the last 5 years when they score:
70 or More: 62-21 (.747 win percentage)

Less than 70: 28-57 (.329 win percentage)

We have to play faster...

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your eventual conclusion, as I don't watch enough UE games to be sure, but your reasoning isn't great. Some WSU media person always likes to point out that WSU is like 48-1(made up number because I think it's too bogus to ever remember) when scoring 80+ points under Marshall.

Turns out, usually you score more points when the other team is just plain worse than you, and the pace doesn't have much to do with it. The numbers could be more interesting when stripped of the Quincy's of the world, just down to league games.

[Tom Servo]

The question is, as always, who will be on the floor and how will they be utilized. If the Aces play fast and everyone is a threat, they will finish second. If not, they very will could finish right here.

Evansville's record the last 5 years when they score:
70 or More: 62-21 (.747 win percentage)

Less than 70: 28-57 (.329 win percentage)

We have to play faster...

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your eventual conclusion, as I don't watch enough UE games to be sure, but your reasoning isn't great. Some WSU media person always likes to point out that WSU is like 48-1(made up number because I think it's too bogus to ever remember) when scoring 80+ points under Marshall.

Turns out, usually you score more points when the other team is just plain worse than you, and the pace doesn't have much to do with it. The numbers could be more interesting when stripped of the Quincy's of the world, just down to league games.

Totally get what you're saying...but I guess my response would be look at WSU's record when they don't score 70 or 80. It's still an outstanding record so it really doesn't matter how much they score. You guys still win.

Honestly, I would say the terribleness (if that's even a word) of the Aces in low scoring games is more of my argument. 28-57 is just beyond terrible.

I know basing it just totally on points scored is weak, but like many have said here and most Aces fans will tell you. We are a better team when we don't stall and wait for DJ to come off ten thousand screen while everyone else just watches. Everyone has to be in attack mode, all the time.

Good discussion!

[uniftw]

Playing faster but not playing better won't result in more wins.

I would bet you don't have that significant of a pace differential in most of your games in the upper 50s and 60s than you do in the 70s

[shockalot]

I think the Valley really needs Loyola to be a very good team ASAP. If they can attain 5th this year and improve on that next, and get more Chicago talent to stay perhaps it can happen.

Any team improving is good for the Valley as a whole, but back-to-back tourney appearances by the Panthers would be the biggest boost to the MVC this year. Maybe Luke McDonald can be what Doug McDermott was supposed to be. ISUr needs to get over the hump as they are slowing improving year-by-year. UE could have a monster season this year, but they look to fall off the cliff after Mock graduates. Bradley is an historically good program...better than WSU, so hopefully Wardle can get them out of their historically bad slump.

Agree for the most part, but I think if the Valley gets any second team after WSU to get to the tournament it will be a big boost. Unless there is a big surprise out of UNI front court player production I don't see them as a likely returner, but it isn't impossible.

[Drakey]

I'm not an Evansville expert, but I totally understand what Servo is saying about tempo. I assume since he has watched the Aces play a lot of games he is sharp enough to know the team is better when they push the tempo. I watched Mark Phelps for five years make a team that should have been running walk the ball up court. That is how you have the highest rankled recruiting class in the Valley two years in a row and still never get out of the Thursday night game. A control freak can kill a team.