Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

Missouri State. 100% due to coaching.

Northern Iowa. 100% due to the players who play on the court.


(They got this far because apparently Ben Jacobson is God and can control how good the players play on the court while sitting on the bench).

I picked UNI 6th and then 5th and then 4th and then 3rd.

I wonder about this polling method. Essentially it eliminates your vote if you are in the minority. I wonder how the results would vary if everybody had to pick the order of finish 1-10 all at once and then the results were tabulated. I'm guessing there would be a significant difference.

We should do that after this ends

[Blers]

What I may be overlooking though is how bad the rest of the MVC might be this year. If we are a Horizon league level conference in 2017-2018, does that mean finishing 3rd is an accomplishment? Doubt it, but that could happen for UNI (or better) if the rest of the conference is incompetent.

I really feel the average talent level of each team is up this year. There's are just really no "elite" teams. Lower ceiling but generally a way higher floor in my opinion. I went UNI hear. I think their sophomores will be really good, but need one more year. I would be worried about them going into the next season with them as Juniors along with Pickford and Green though. They'll continue to improve.

[Old School MVC]

I too have picked UNI the last three poll questions, but have trouble picking them here since I can not see Lusk and Moser having the top 2 teams in the league.

[uniftw]

I never said coaching didn't matter. Coaching only takes you so far. Ben typically develops his recruits and is good every 2-3 years. However, in this instance unlike say 2013-2014, you don't have returning players of pedigree except Koch (you lost your best player). Predictable you would get defensive though.

In general, I want, and the conference wants UNI to be good. It helps us overcome the loss of WSU, but your roster does not scream that this year. I will GLADLY eat crow if you are very good as it's good for the MVC.

Where do you believe ISUr finishes?

Mind you, I've done the math and posted it here many times. The Redbirds have lost something like 83% of their statistics from last season.

Bennett Koch is, and you can look this up, the most efficient player in the league last year and it wasn't really close. If he finds a way to stay out of foul trouble and gets to 28-30 MPG from 20 this league is in some real trouble.

Yes, Morgan is gone. That sucks. I'm not too worried.

[BEARZ77]

I like Koch a lot, and I'm sure you have some definition of efficiency that supports your point. His[Koch's] ability to get to the foul line and make fts is probably what makes him high in your formula. But just for comparisons sake, a guy like Obediah Church, who is certainly not a guy I'm touting as an all -league or difference maker performer, does a lot more things better than Koch for a post player. He shot 64% to Koch's 57%, he outrebounded him 5.8 to 3.8, he blocked 74 shots to Koch's 21, he had 42 assists to Kochs 13 and only 43 turnovers to Koch's 67. Which calls into question the term efficiency when a guy has 5x more turnovers than assists. Again I like Koch and believe he has all -league potential, but he has a lot more areas he needs to improve on than just foul problems.

[uniftw]

You're looking at raw numbers, not efficiency numbers.

Church played 6 more minutes per game

Player efficiency rating - Koch is 3 points ahead of Church. Koch is a head of Church in wins shares

Per 40 numbers
Church: 15 PTS 9 REBOUNDS 3 BLOCKS
Koch: 22 PTS 8 REBOUNDS 2 BLOCKS

Look at conference numbers per 40- given the extreme difference in SOS in the OOC
Church: 8 PTS 8 REBOUNDS 3 BLOCKS 2 AST 58% FG 43% FT
Koch: 22 PTS 8 REBOUNDS 2 BLOCKS 1 ASSIST 57% FG 79% FT

In conference play Church played 499 minutes - Koch 415. That's 2 games plus an OT difference. If Koch can stay on the floor there isn't another post player that impacts the game like he does.

[BirdsEyeView]

I never said coaching didn't matter. Coaching only takes you so far. Ben typically develops his recruits and is good every 2-3 years. However, in this instance unlike say 2013-2014, you don't have returning players of pedigree except Koch (you lost your best player). Predictable you would get defensive though.

In general, I want, and the conference wants UNI to be good. It helps us overcome the loss of WSU, but your roster does not scream that this year. I will GLADLY eat crow if you are very good as it's good for the MVC.

Where do you believe ISUr finishes?

Mind you, I've done the math and posted it here many times. The Redbirds have lost something like 83% of their statistics from last season.

Bennett Koch is, and you can look this up, the most efficient player in the league last year and it wasn't really close. If he finds a way to stay out of foul trouble and gets to 28-30 MPG from 20 this league is in some real trouble.

Yes, Morgan is gone. That sucks. I'm not too worried.

I have posted many times on here as well...I think ISUr is 4-6th place finishers just like UNI. We lost too much and our stud recruits are either ineligible (Copeland) or injured during preseason as a Freshman pg (Clarance). My expectations are low unless Fayne and Yarbrough can carry us.

I am not a homer ISUr fan. I am a realist, just like I am a realist for what I see with your roster at UNI.

Agreed on Koch. Averaged 20 minutes per game last year, needs to up that statistic, but you aren't worried you lost a guy who led you in 5 categories on what I consider a shi**y UNI team last season? Then also your #3 scorer Ashton? Who did you replace Morgan and Ashton with besides adding back your pg Lohaus? Mind you, we beat you by 21 points on your home floor WITH Morgan/Ashton/Koch/Carlson last year.

I just don't see it.

Again, I hope I am wrong for both ISUr and UNI....but too many people put WAAAAYYY too much weight on Ben Jacobson. The UNI roster screams mediocre to me unless someone has a break out year.

Ditto for ISUr.

[glm38]

Regarding Koch - its certainly not a given he can curb his fouling. That's a big "if". A lot of talented players never overcome that deficiency. Maybe he does in his senior year but maybe not.

Bearz - regarding Church i do see him as a big difference maker for us. Primarily on the defensive end. The kid has out of this world athletic ability and plays hard ALL the time. I love his game. If he just develops a post up game he would definitely be all conference worthy. He seems very coachable. Hopefully the MSU coaching staff has made this a priority. But given our recent history I'm not counting on it.

[Born2Shock]

I never said coaching didn't matter. Coaching only takes you so far. Ben typically develops his recruits and is good every 2-3 years. However, in this instance unlike say 2013-2014, you don't have returning players of pedigree except Koch (you lost your best player). Predictable you would get defensive though.

In general, I want, and the conference wants UNI to be good. It helps us overcome the loss of WSU, but your roster does not scream that this year. I will GLADLY eat crow if you are very good as it's good for the MVC.

Where do you believe ISUr finishes?

Mind you, I've done the math and posted it here many times. The Redbirds have lost something like 83% of their statistics from last season.

Bennett Koch is, and you can look this up, the most efficient player in the league last year and it wasn't really close. If he finds a way to stay out of foul trouble and gets to 28-30 MPG from 20 this league is in some real trouble.

Yes, Morgan is gone. That sucks. I'm not too worried.

You're right. It wasnt close...


https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/co ... /2017.html

PER:
1. Aundre Jackson Loyola (IL) 26.6
2. Alize Johnson Missouri State 24.7
3. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 23.1
4. Jaylon Brown Evansville 22.5
5. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 22.0
6. Milton Doyle Loyola (IL) 21.6
7. Bennett Koch Northern Iowa 21.6
8. Phil Fayne Illinois State 21.4
9. Paris Lee Illinois State 21.3
10. Jeremy Morgan Northern Iowa 20.6

Offensive Rating:
1. Landry Shamet Wichita State 132.1
2. Aundre Jackson Loyola (IL) 123.4
3. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 121.8
4. Donte Ingram Loyola (IL) 120.7
5. Alize Johnson Missouri State 116.3
6. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 114.4
7. Jaylon Brown Evansville 114.2
8. Paris Lee Illinois State 112.8
9. Clayton Custer Loyola (IL) 112.8
10. Armon Fletcher Southern Illinois 112.



Defensive Rating:
1. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 89.1
2. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 92.5
3. Phil Fayne Illinois State 92.9
4. Paris Lee Illinois State 93.2
5. Zach Brown Wichita State 93.5
6. MiKyle McIntosh Illinois State 93.8
7. Jeremy Morgan Northern Iowa 94.2
8. Tony Wills Illinois State 94.9
9. Landry Shamet Wichita State 95.0
10. Milton Doyle Loyola (IL) 95.5

[BirdsEyeView]

I never said coaching didn't matter. Coaching only takes you so far. Ben typically develops his recruits and is good every 2-3 years. However, in this instance unlike say 2013-2014, you don't have returning players of pedigree except Koch (you lost your best player). Predictable you would get defensive though.

In general, I want, and the conference wants UNI to be good. It helps us overcome the loss of WSU, but your roster does not scream that this year. I will GLADLY eat crow if you are very good as it's good for the MVC.

Where do you believe ISUr finishes?

Mind you, I've done the math and posted it here many times. The Redbirds have lost something like 83% of their statistics from last season.

Bennett Koch is, and you can look this up, the most efficient player in the league last year and it wasn't really close. If he finds a way to stay out of foul trouble and gets to 28-30 MPG from 20 this league is in some real trouble.

Yes, Morgan is gone. That sucks. I'm not too worried.

You're right. It wasnt close...


https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/co ... /2017.html

PER:
1. Aundre Jackson Loyola (IL) 26.6
2. Alize Johnson Missouri State 24.7
3. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 23.1
4. Jaylon Brown Evansville 22.5
5. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 22.0
6. Milton Doyle Loyola (IL) 21.6
7. Bennett Koch Northern Iowa 21.6
8. Phil Fayne Illinois State 21.4
9. Paris Lee Illinois State 21.3
10. Jeremy Morgan Northern Iowa 20.6

Offensive Rating:
1. Landry Shamet Wichita State 132.1
2. Aundre Jackson Loyola (IL) 123.4
3. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 121.8
4. Donte Ingram Loyola (IL) 120.7
5. Alize Johnson Missouri State 116.3
6. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 114.4
7. Jaylon Brown Evansville 114.2
8. Paris Lee Illinois State 112.8
9. Clayton Custer Loyola (IL) 112.8
10. Armon Fletcher Southern Illinois 112.



Defensive Rating:
1. Markis McDuffie Wichita State 89.1
2. Deontae Hawkins Illinois State 92.5
3. Phil Fayne Illinois State 92.9
4. Paris Lee Illinois State 93.2
5. Zach Brown Wichita State 93.5
6. MiKyle McIntosh Illinois State 93.8
7. Jeremy Morgan Northern Iowa 94.2
8. Tony Wills Illinois State 94.9
9. Landry Shamet Wichita State 95.0
10. Milton Doyle Loyola (IL) 95.5

SHHHH, you can't use facts that defeat blind homerism of some UNI fans.

And his per 40s are hilarious given Koch can barely play 20 minutes per game. I guess if he plays two games and everyone else plays one game then his stats look a bit better.