Official 2018-19 MVCfans.com Prediction - 7th Place

[Dean Wormer]

Yep. Fear won out for me too. Fear that AJ won't be able to perfect the flop his freshman year.

[jsaluki080]

Is Northern Iowa really expected to finish this low?
I know they were down last year, but NIU seems like the type of program capable of bouncing back rather quickly.

[VU2014]

I'm a little surprised UNI is leading the vote for 7th. I have them pegged for 5th or 6th.

I went with Indiana State to finish 7th. I understand the some of the hype surrounding Neese but he's going to miss most of the first half of the season and there may be an adjustment period of finding his role the first handful of games back, which might cost them a game in conference play. Plus he'll still only be a redshirt freshman and it's tough to project what kind of impact he'll have his freshman season. I just have a lot of questions about this Indiana State team. I don't expect them to be bad by any means but I'm not sure what their ceiling is. I could see them steal a couple wins from a the top top 4 but I could also see the teams in the 5-8 range being very competitive with them and a eville and Drake could steal a game at home possibly. Indiana State is just tough to project for me so I put them 7th.

This whole league is well coached so anyone can beat anyone if the "better" team on paper is having an off night.

[BEARZ77]

I think the tendency the last few years has been to expect UNI to rebound to where they were for the previous extended period and to base that alot on Jake even as many were skeptical about their roster. But now we're looking at a 3 year trend that went from 11-7 to 9-9 to 7-11. We're looking at a team that lost it's starting frontline [ and yeah we hear all the statements about addition by subtraction] from a team that has always banked it's success on a strong frontline and playing inside out. I also think in those 3 years the Valley has changed a lot in the number of teams not playing the type of basketball UNI excelled at. The league was dominated by teams and coaches who were content to play half court , possession basketball and position defense, and by far UNI was the best at it. But that's changing and while again UNI is citing the addition of longer more athletic perimeter players, is that a style of play they can excel at ? Time will tell; I still tend to expect Jake to do well and this looks like the type of team he has done so with in the past. But the frontline is very unproven, and you always have to be cautious about expectations with freshman point guards regardless of talent. I think 5-7 are choices that are tough. Valpo has good history, but struggled last year and have several guys who will still be redshirting this year who look to help. Lansing has been so mediocre since his initial success, but he has guards and this is a guards game, so......... ? It'll be interesting.

[siudawgs]

For Indiana State to avoid Thursday in what looks to be an improved MVC, they’ll need Key to take a big step forward and at least one of the two DI transfers to also be really good to form a formidable Big 3 alongside Barnes and Key. Without that type of star power, not sure there’s enough quality depth on the roster to finish ahead of UNI, Valpo, etc. I do like Key and would like to see him thrive for the Sycs.

[BCPanther]

I think the tendency the last few years has been to expect UNI to rebound to where they were for the previous extended period and to base that alot on Jake even as many were skeptical about their roster. But now we're looking at a 3 year trend that went from 11-7 to 9-9 to 7-11. We're looking at a team that lost it's starting frontline [ and yeah we hear all the statements about addition by subtraction] from a team that has always banked it's success on a strong frontline and playing inside out. I also think in those 3 years the Valley has changed a lot in the number of teams not playing the type of basketball UNI excelled at. The league was dominated by teams and coaches who were content to play half court , possession basketball and position defense, and by far UNI was the best at it. But that's changing and while again UNI is citing the addition of longer more athletic perimeter players, is that a style of play they can excel at ? Time will tell; I still tend to expect Jake to do well and this looks like the type of team he has done so with in the past. But the frontline is very unproven, and you always have to be cautious about expectations with freshman point guards regardless of talent. I think 5-7 are choices that are tough. Valpo has good history, but struggled last year and have several guys who will still be redshirting this year who look to help. Lansing has been so mediocre since his initial success, but he has guards and this is a guards game, so......... ? It'll be interesting.

This. This is a very good post. Well done, sir.

[Drakey]

Fortunately the style of play in the Valley over the last several yeas has improved to the point of being watchable. I was fearful at one point that UNI's success was going to doom the Valley to a future of 52-49 games. We had literally become the most unwatchable basketball conference in the country. Fortunately we got some new coaches who didn't believe in the grab, stop and flop philosophy and we started to see some entertaining basketball again. This along with some officiating changes has helped make Valley Basketball enjoyable again. Fortunately for the league and unfortunately for UNI, as other schools have hired coaches who quit letting UNI dictate the tempo of the game, and the officials quit allowing defenders to maul offensive players, UNI's effectiveness has decreased. So for me it is not fear or jealousy, just hopefulness.

[Majik45]

I went with Indiana State just because of UNI's longer track record of being good, but in reality, I think UNI, ISU(b), and Valpo all are about the same on paper this year and could finish in any order.

[hot nuts]

Total Lulz that this board is going to pick UNI 7th. It's some kind of fear and/or jealousy.

Mark me down as jealous. Jealous that my state doesn't legalize the Livestock Only dating site that's so popular in Iowa.

[Blers]

I think the tendency the last few years has been to expect UNI to rebound to where they were for the previous extended period and to base that alot on Jake even as many were skeptical about their roster. But now we're looking at a 3 year trend that went from 11-7 to 9-9 to 7-11. We're looking at a team that lost it's starting frontline [ and yeah we hear all the statements about addition by subtraction] from a team that has always banked it's success on a strong frontline and playing inside out. I also think in those 3 years the Valley has changed a lot in the number of teams not playing the type of basketball UNI excelled at. The league was dominated by teams and coaches who were content to play half court , possession basketball and position defense, and by far UNI was the best at it. But that's changing and while again UNI is citing the addition of longer more athletic perimeter players, is that a style of play they can excel at ? Time will tell; I still tend to expect Jake to do well and this looks like the type of team he has done so with in the past. But the frontline is very unproven, and you always have to be cautious about expectations with freshman point guards regardless of talent. I think 5-7 are choices that are tough. Valpo has good history, but struggled last year and have several guys who will still be redshirting this year who look to help. Lansing has been so mediocre since his initial success, but he has guards and this is a guards game, so......... ? It'll be interesting.

Great post; really sums up a lot of my feelings. I picked Indiana State here but it was a bit of a toss up. The biggest thing with UNI will be their offense. Jakes a fantastic defensive coach; watching UNI games can be torture cuz of how muddy they make everything; but in their last two seasons they've been absolutely stymied on the offensive end. UNI fans probably know more but I think most of that has to do with the personnel; Juwan McCloud didn't pan out as the replacement for Washpun and there wasn't really ever an alpha guard on offense (AJ Green can really help here). With that a lot of the scoring load and pressures fell on Koch and Carlson who seemed like players who really needed to flip a switch to be "on" and too often that switch was off.

It's a defensive league, but the offenses are catching up a bit as the game advances. If Pickford can improve his offensive efficiency and AJ Green lives up to his billing this team could be scary next year. But for this year I see 9-9 as a realistic and acceptable goal in what should be a tough valley. My guess is they'll steal some wins from the top teams, while also dropping some frustrating games to the bottom. Regardless they'll make everyone work for the dub.