3-way tie for 1st, 4-way tie for 2nd

[Adunk33]

Crazy league. Just remember too, Illinois State is 2 half court bank shot buzzer beaters away from replacing MO State in that first place jamboree. To avoid Thursday, ILST needs to win out. There is almost no tiebreaker that they would win except Evansville, beating them twice. The only other opportunities they have is winning at SIU, at INST, and at home vs Drake. Then they would own those tiebreakers ILSTs NET is crap. It's crazy to see how much of an impact the NET is going to have on this league despite not being created for leagues like the MVC. It was created to get more big boys in the dance.

[MSUDuo]

If ISUr held on against MSU they'd still only be tied for 3rd at 8-6. But you're right, the margin for error is slim. Those in first could still finish 9-9 and in 6th...

[Saluki 4 Life]

There are some huge swing games this week....

Valpo/SIU is huge for Thursday. If SIU beats Valpo they are likely going to be in the play in and SIU will be in pretty good shape.

If Bradley beats Drake they are going to avoid Thursday... If they don't they are going to have to beat Loyola on the road or Bradley could very well be a play in team. sorry to the 1/2 seed that gets them as an 8/9.

If UNI goes to MSU and wins not only is UNI in a good position but MSU will be at serious risk of falling back into the muck of the league. If UNI loses they are going to have to go 3-0 down the stretch.

The biggest IMO is this... IF Illinois State goes to Indiana State and loses I think we can safely say they're done. If Illinois State loses to Indiana State they are in huge trouble... again if they are a play in team I feel really bad for the team who earns the 1/2 seed...

Regardless, imagine being a 1/2 seed and your reward being Bradley, SIU, ILL ST or UNI... 3 of those teams are loaded with seniors and UNI/Bradley is playing its best ball of the year.

I think a play in team is going to Saturday this year, someone of that list I just put out there.

[Saluki 4 Life]

Also, predicting games this year is pointless. I have no faith at all in being able to predict who is going to win what game... one minute a team is blowing out a top team and the next they're getting blown out by someone at the bottom of the league. It is literally just a matter of who plays well on a given night. I do not even think being in the play in games matter other than winning another game. I do not see much difference between UNI and Missouri State. If that is the 8/1 match up I would guess the line would be like MSU -2 or something on a neutral court. I will give this a whirl though...

play in team locks: Evansville, Indiana State

The other 2... I am going to say Valpo and UNI... I think Bradley (losses at Drake/Loyola), SIU and UNI go 2-2 down the stretch and the tie break would shake out

5 SIU (3-1)
6 Bradley (2-2)
7 UNI (1-3)

SIU shapes up pretty well in tie breaks

[Adunk33]

If ISUr held on against MSU they'd still only be tied for 3rd at 8-6. But you're right, the margin for error is slim. Those in first could still finish 9-9 and in 6th...

My post was referring to if BOTH (@Valpo and @MSU) half court bank shot buzzer beaters didn't go in ILST would be 9-5 and drop MO State to 8-6.

[Adunk33]

The biggest IMO is this... IF Illinois State goes to Indiana State and loses I think we can safely say they're done. If Illinois State loses to Indiana State they are in huge trouble... again if they are a play in team I feel really bad for the team who earns the 1/2 seed...

Regardless, imagine being a 1/2 seed and your reward being Bradley, SIU, ILL ST or UNI... 3 of those teams are loaded with seniors and UNI/Bradley is playing its best ball of the year.

I think a play in team is going to Saturday this year, someone of that list I just put out there.

Historically, ILST has always struggled at Terre Haute, so I don't expect a win over there. Teams over the last two games are shooting lights out in the first half and ILST is trying to play catch-up. Yes the Birds defense could have been better but not all looks were wide open. Still, UNI hit just shy of 65% from 3 in the first half at UNI (9 made), and Bradley shot 70% from 3 in the first half, and won in a 2 possession game. The Birds really needed Saturday's game against BU to get back on track. Ideally, ILST would do enough to finish the season strong and avoid Thursday, but I agree with you. I don't think playing Thursday this year is the same death sentence it was when the 1/2 seeds were the Creighton's and Wichita State's of the MVC. Usually, who ever plays Thursday gets off to a decent start against the 1/2 seed, this will likely be the year the scale gets tipped and the 1/2 seed gets "upset." If the Birds are relegated to (most likely) the 7th seed, depending how they play over the next two weeks, I may feel good about making it to Saturday.

You're right though, predictions at this point are useless. The Redbirds do have a tough stretch playing at INST (never play well there) then home for the two hottest teams in the league for Drake and Mo State, and finish the season at SIU for senior day for Bartley, Lloyd, Fletcher, Pippen and Bol, and likely Hinson's final game at SIU Arena, which will be tough.

I hope the Birds will go 4-0. I think they will go 2-2.

[municup14]

Illinois St. Is a lot like Evansville right now,not playing very well.

[Kyle@MOState]

If Missouri State is a top 2 seed in St. Louis, there aren't really any teams coming out of Thursday night that I would feel comfortable against. I don't think Missouri State really scares anyone in those top two spots either. I haven't been able to get myself to the point where I just expect Missouri State to win, although I am coming around to that logic as we keep rolling.

[MissouriValleyUnite]

ILST on Thursday would be interesting fan and story-wise.

Fan-wise, it could be the biggest Thursday turnout since Wichita in the Woodfox year (was that really 10 years ago? wow) as a lot of Redbird fans probably purchased tix weeks ago not thinking this was a Thursday team.

Story-wise, you’d have the “Undisputed Favorites” with 2 1st team all-mvc seniors fighting for their careers on Thursday night.

[MSUDuo]

If ISUr held on against MSU they'd still only be tied for 3rd at 8-6. But you're right, the margin for error is slim. Those in first could still finish 9-9 and in 6th...

My post was referring to if BOTH (@Valpo and @MSU) half court bank shot buzzer beaters didn't go in ILST would be 9-5 and drop MO State to 8-6.

You're right, I misread.