Bears #55 @ CBB Central preseason top 100

[BCPanther]

I really think the Valley has 4 Top 100 teams this year. Missouri State, Bradley, UNI and Loyola should all be in the Top 100 or very close to it. If everything would break right I could see MSU, BU and UNI challenging to be in the 50-75 range.

I love the MVC and would really like to believe that. But that would mean the league would go from being a 1-bid 15 seed league to a 2-4 bid league with seeds likely ranging from 10-13. I don't see that drastic changing happening so quickly. I do think Mo State will make some noise, but it seem they will be somewhat reliant on the strong play of highly touted freshmen. Sometimes it may take a little bit to get some kinks out or there would be a bad loss in there somewhere to an Indiana State or SIU during conference play. Same concept could be applied to any other team mentioned. The NCAA has shown they are unforgiving when it comes to losses like that in our league. Heck, a 26-win Redbird team was left out just a few years ago after going 17-1 in the conference and getting smacked in the title game in STL.

I hope to see the MVC as a multi-bid league again very soon, but would be shocked if this was the year. Conference play is going to be another dog-fight where each team has to scrap for positioning for those magical three (or four) days in March. I see another year of 3 or 4 (9-9) teams with the regular season league champ having 12 or 13 wins. If there is any significant sort of jump in the NCAA Tournament regarding the MVC I would guess our tournament champ would be a 12/13 seed instead of a 15. But that would be just one step up the long climb.

I'm not a "the MVC Sucks" guy. But like the MVFC- our league really beats up on each other in efforts to make it to post season play. Same can be argued for the OVC, MWC, A10, or any other MM. You could argue the same for the P6 but as we know, the NCAA is much more forgiving to them.

Oh, I don't think it'll get us any more bids but it would get our tournament champion to the 11 or 12 line. Unfortunately, that should be our goal most years at this point. Also, outside of maybe SIU and/or Valpo there shouldn't be any boat anchors on our computer numbers.

If I HAD to predict what the preseason poll will look like, I'd go-

Missouri State
Bradley
UNI
Loyola
Drake
Illinois State
Evansville
Indiana State
Valpo
Southern Illinois

The top 6 would all have a good shot to be top 150. That's our best bet to get to that 11 or 12 line.

[Mikovio]

You could argue the same for the P6 but as we know, the NCAA is much more forgiving to them.

The NCAA seemed pretty forgiving to Belmont last year in giving them an at large. With Bradley AD Reynolds on the committee I'm more confident in getting a fair shake. Now it's up to the individual teams to assemble that bubble profile.

[siudawgs]

I wouldn’t rule out multiple bids this year with the makeup of the conference. The trick is the team with the best noncon wins also winning the regular season title, which obviously doesn’t always happen. But, at least there are some interesting teams with potential to have big years.

[MissouriValleyUnite]

You could argue the same for the P6 but as we know, the NCAA is much more forgiving to them.

The NCAA seemed pretty forgiving to Belmont last year in giving them an at large. With Bradley AD Reynolds on the committee I'm more confident in getting a fair shake. Now it's up to the individual teams to assemble that bubble profile.

In 2014-18, you had 5/10 committee members hail from the P5+BE who had the capability of aligning together and effectively blocking non-surefire mid-majors because it benefitted them to maximize P5+BE bids. Those 5 years happened to be the worst 5 years for mid-major at-large bids.

2019 resumed the pre-2014 committee makeup of 4/10 P5+BE members and seeding (Utah St=8, VCU=8) and at-large bids (Belmont, Greensboro first out) shot up for mid-majors. ‘17 ISU makes the tournament with last year’s committee.

Remember, in the years leading up to the 5/10 committee composition, you saw CAA-era VCU (‘11), Iona (‘12), & SBELT-era Middle Tennessee (‘13) obtain at-large bids. First year back to that setup and Belmont joins them.

[glm38]

I wouldn’t rule out multiple bids this year with the makeup of the conference. The trick is the team with the best noncon wins also winning the regular season title, which obviously doesn’t always happen. But, at least there are some interesting teams with potential to have big years.

I agree with this. Getting 2 teams in is very possible if the regular season champs have a good enough season but fall in the conference tournament.

[Cdizzle]

You could argue the same for the P6 but as we know, the NCAA is much more forgiving to them.

The NCAA seemed pretty forgiving to Belmont last year in giving them an at large. With Bradley AD Reynolds on the committee I'm more confident in getting a fair shake. Now it's up to the individual teams to assemble that bubble profile.

In 2014-18, you had 5/10 committee members hail from the P5+BE who had the capability of aligning together and effectively blocking non-surefire mid-majors because it benefitted them to maximize P5+BE bids. Those 5 years happened to be the worst 5 years for mid-major at-large bids.

2019 resumed the pre-2014 committee makeup of 4/10 P5+BE members and seeding (Utah St=8, VCU=8) and at-large bids (Belmont, Greensboro first out) shot up for mid-majors. ‘17 ISU makes the tournament with last year’s committee.

Remember, in the years leading up to the 5/10 committee composition, you saw CAA-era VCU (‘11), Iona (‘12), & SBELT-era Middle Tennessee (‘13) obtain at-large bids. First year back to that setup and Belmont joins them.

This is highly interesting. Do you know how long until there is another change? Will be interesting to track how things shake out. I was pleased that the bubble coin-flip seemed to come up 'good mid' a couple times last year. I will always want to see a team given their chance than the team that already proved they weren't that good in 15 chances. And while 1 or 2 bubble spots is usually what gets the attention, I think the seeding for the really good mids is probably more important, which you also touch on.

[BEARZ77]

This has always been one of my major contentions about the selection process, that being that the committee makeup should reflect the overall D-1 membership. That means that P-5's should always be in the minority as to the committee mix.

[Kyle@MOState]

I wouldn’t rule out multiple bids this year with the makeup of the conference. The trick is the team with the best noncon wins also winning the regular season title, which obviously doesn’t always happen. But, at least there are some interesting teams with potential to have big years.

I agree with this. Getting 2 teams in is very possible if the regular season champs have a good enough season but fall in the conference tournament.

That would most likely require Missouri State to be good all year after some preseason hype to raise their status and then lose the conference tourney title game. As a Bears fan, I am not comfortable with this scenario.

[BEARZ77]

I know everyone likes to talk about multiple teams, and the committee's bias and on and on. But it still comes down to individual teams scheduling well enough in the noncon to have quality wins, winning a majority of those games and then navigating the conference race and tourney in good fashion. When our top teams haven't gotten bids after losing in the conference tourney, it's been the case of not having high level noncon wins plain and simple. I'm not negating bias, but the map for making it as an at large is clear, and there is little margin for error. RPI is virtually meaningless, you have to get quad 1/2 wins and avoid bad losses.

Speaking about MSU, we have games against Xavier, LSU, VCU, Miami of Fla., and possibly Florida. We have a home game with Murray State you have to win. Give me 2-3 wins against the p-5 teams, finish the conference season with 4 or less losses and play on Sunday in STL and you go dancing I bet. I'm sure other Valley teams have similar opportunities. Just do it !!

[Majik45]

This is highly interesting. Do you know how long until there is another change? Will be interesting to track how things shake out. I was pleased that the bubble coin-flip seemed to come up 'good mid' a couple times last year. I will always want to see a team given their chance than the team that already proved they weren't that good in 15 chances. And while 1 or 2 bubble spots is usually what gets the attention, I think the seeding for the really good mids is probably more important, which you also touch on.

Wasn't this the time frame that the Creighton AD was already on the committee representing the "mid-majors", and that is when Creighton moved from a mid-major up to the Big East which caused a conflict/imbalance?

Just confirmed that this is the same time frame, and Creighton's AD left the committee in 2018. He may have been replaced by Bradley AD Chris Reynolds last year.

https://www.ketv.com/article/creighton- ... ee/7637780