Official 2023-24 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

[siudawgs]

I think the 2 factors, "most disrespected " and "most unpredictable" have fed each other. The time frame of the study is short and covers 2 years , 1 under Lusk,1 under Ford where MSU was picked 1st and finished 7/6 , which are large margins . Those results then led to probable undervaluing MSU the next year, which again led to large margins the other way. Thus "unpredictable"; however if you look at Ford's record in the MVC his range of finish is 2-6 , less variance than you see with UNI 1-8, Bradley 1-8, and others during that same time frame. Ford has been consistent in putting out a competitive product and an overall end result year to year, but he's not won big games, and not been consistent game to game against varying competition. That's why he's evaluated at the level he is.

To me , you can isolate individual coaching skills and make cases on competency using those assessments, but in the end, it's wins and losses , especially in a conference vacuum. Yeah different programs have varying levels of resources etc, but that's the gig, just win baby.

You’ve made good points in this and other posts. For me, a lot of it comes down to having had a duo like Prim and Mosley and not winning so much as an NIT game is where much of the underachieving label comes in, more recently. That’s a 1-2 punch you don’t see often in the Valley, and they had some decent role guys around them.

[sivert]

I think the 2 factors, "most disrespected " and "most unpredictable" have fed each other.
...

Yes, I agree. And part of it is how we tend to view the highs and lows of our teams vs opposing teams.
We all tend to remember our own highs with a sense of "that's how it really ought to be - that's who we really are." So even if the highs and lows are equal, we better remember the highs.
And we tend to remember opponent's highs as exceptions to their proper mediocrity.

For Missouri State, from a UNI perspective, this is heightened by UNI's success vs. Missouri State. So all these things mean that it's really easy for me as a UNI fan to disrespect MSU and rank them lower than they truly deserve.

[TylerDurden]

You can go even further with the perception stuff, especially for Missouri State.

If you take a look at their conference finishes since 1999 - the last NCAA trip for the Bears - they've been relatively competitive the entire time, save for one or two seasons.

Since 2000 (Barry's first year), MSU's Valley finish: 2, 7, 4, 3, 5, 5, 2 (2006 NCAA snub), 3, 7 (Barry's last year), 10 (Cuonzo, yr. 1), 7, 1, 3 (5-way tie, Lusk 1st yr), 7 (three way tie), 4, 8, 6, 6, 7, 3 (Dana 1st year), 6, 3, 2 (three-way tie), 6

If you've followed the Valley for 20 years, you expect the Bears to be competitive, but not win the league and just as likely to be top half as they are bottom half.

My guess is posters on MVC fans and Valley Talk (RIP), basically expect a mid-pack (4-5-6) finish and aren't surprised if they jump or fall a couple of spots. At least that's how I see it.

[BEARZ77]

You’ve made good points in this and other posts. For me, a lot of it comes down to having had a duo like Prim and Mosley and not winning so much as an NIT game is where much of the underachieving label comes in, more recently. That’s a 1-2 punch you don’t see often in the Valley, and they had some decent role guys around them.

To me, the Prim/Mosley arguments are prime example of how Ford doesn't get the credit he deserves. Everyone talks about their talent, but frankly anyone could have had them out of HS. Prim was 6'6 out of HS, went D-2 and didn't even start as a frosh on that D-2 team , although he was an integral piece on a great team. Went juco and had a big year, but still was a 6'7 low post scorer who played below the rim coming out of juco. Mosely was a skilled scorer in HS and AAU, but offers fell off as he was a poor student and not overly coachable. He's a great kid , really nice , soft spoken young man, but came from a situation with zero support and little focus except on basketball . If you don't think it was a great coaching job that Ford kept him eligible and got two 20 ppg years out of him , all you have to do is look at what a disaster his one year at MU turned into . So I look at those years and say Ford got everything he could out of a pair of talented but certainly flawed individuals to a tune of a 3rd and 2nd place finish that was a contested foul on a 3 pt shot from winning the regular season title. I think Ford is one of the best talent evaluators and developers in the league , something I think will be evident again this year when people watch Chance Moore; he's got pro- league talent, but we'll have to see if like Mosley, Ford can harness and focus it.