2020 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

[VUGrad1314]

That is the way the Valley use to do it. I am not sure how long the Valley has been doing the seeding this way but I believe the reasoning was to get teams to play a better non-conference schedule.

The MVC abandoned the points system a long time ago. Don't remember the exact year, but I'm guessing '09.

Maybe it's time to bring it back? I think we're entering a phase of the league where it would be useful and viable for us to do so. Our NCSOS as a league needs some work if we want to be a multibid league again.

[VUGrad1314]

Hacksaw,

So what are we looking at now that the games have gone final? What are the final probabilities as we head into the final slate of Valley play this Saturday? Once again thank you for everything you do here with these analytics. I really appreciate reading them and discussing them! Congrats on the regular season title for the Panthers by the way (at least a share of it anyway). Probably good that UNI still has something to play for @ Drake (the outright title) to keep them focused and sharp going into St Louis.

[Hacksaw]

Lots to be determined via NET rankings. I've done my best to try and predict how the NET rankings will fall in each scenario, but that's obviously up for debate (and potential revision after seeing the update tomorrow morning).

[pafan]

Maybe it's time to bring it back? I think we're entering a phase of the league where it would be useful and viable for us to do so. Our NCSOS as a league needs some work if we want to be a multibid league again.

I think you misunderstood me. The point system, where you got 10 points for beating the #1 seed, 9 points for beating the #2 seed, etc, had nothing to do with NCSOS.

The NCSOS tiebreaker didn't seem very effective at promoting improved SOS when it was in place.

[Hacksaw]

[Hacksaw]

[ACECARD]

Which is more improbable? Mo. St a Thursday team, or the Aces going 0-18.

[BCPanther]

Which is more improbable? Mo. St a Thursday team, or the Aces going 0-18.

0-18. It hasn't happened in 20+ years. Lots of teams with big expectations have underperformed.

[Kyle@MOState]

Which is more improbable? Mo. St a Thursday team, or the Aces going 0-18.

0-18. It hasn't happened in 20+ years. Lots of teams with big expectations have underperformed.

Missouri State was picked to finish 1st in 17/18, and played on Thursday night. It's still a sore subject for me... (Also, stop picking Missouri State to finish first in the Valley. It never works out for them, and it just creates a lot of disappointment for me when it happens.)

Go Trees and Go Bears! Let's not have a repeat of that.

[VUGrad1314]

Which is more improbable? Mo. St a Thursday team, or the Aces going 0-18.

0-18. It hasn't happened in 20+ years. Lots of teams with big expectations have underperformed.

Evansville gets a pass for this year. Between their coaching situation and their injuries it's been a total ____Show for them. Anything that can go wrong for them has and I hope they get rewarded with a much better year soon. To answer the question though 0-18 is way more improbable. And if we were going to pick a team that would have done it it darn sure would not have been Evansville this year. Missouri State severely underperforming expectations and ending up a Thursday team despite great preseason fanfare is unfortunately something we've all seen before already. Not that improbable. Illinois State had a similar year as I recall recently. Was it last year or the year before? Sometimes weird things happen when the team for whatever reason doesn't mesh or come together. 0-18 is borderline unheard of. I think it hasn't happened since like the mid 90s in this conference if I'm not mistaken.

Which is more improbable? Mo. St a Thursday team, or the Aces going 0-18.

Missouri State was picked to finish 1st in 17/18, and played on Thursday night. It's still a sore subject for me... (Also, stop picking Missouri State to finish first in the Valley. It never works out for them, and it just creates a lot of disappointment for me when it happens.)

Go Trees and Go Bears! Let's not have a repeat of that.

I think you guys are just fine where you are. Just kidding but seriously go SIU and Go Valpo!

I used to think the issue was just all Paul Lusk and once you moved on from him things would get better in Springfield Now I'm not so sure. What's the issue with that program. It constantly recruits excellent talent but they don't ever seem to play or win consistently. Can any Bears fans enlighten me? Is it just trying to shoehorn as much talent onto a team without regard for fit and chemistry? Is it coaching? Is it player personalities not meshing and not playing together? I don't get it.