2013-2014 Bracketology thread

[TheAsianSensation]

What wufan said, along with 6-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 12-2 vs. RPI Top 100, 16-1 R/N as relevant data points.

Warrants mentioning...this year's 1 seed candidates are significantly stronger than last year's. Import this year's WSU team to last year....and they're the overall 1 seed, no question, if they win out.

[Wufan]

This year WSU is 3-0 against the top 50 and 6-0 against RPI top 101 with a game remaining against RPI 100, MSU. MSU is my new second favorite team.

[MissouriValleyUnite]

Question probably best served for Wufan/TAS --

If my memory's correct...

2004 Saint Joseph's earned a #1 seed starting 27-0 and falling in the A-10 Tournament.

2006 George Washington posted a 2-loss season (one loss OOC, one A-10 tourney), yet was labeled an 8-seed (albeit they suffered a couple injuries).

Same conference, one that's an MVC peer. How does Wichita's resume stack in comparison if WSU hypothetically dropped the MVC Final?

Thanks.

[rlh04d]

Question probably best served for Wufan/TAS --

If my memory's correct...

2004 Saint Joseph's earned a #1 seed starting 27-0 and falling in the A-10 Tournament.

2006 George Washington posted a 2-loss season (one loss OOC, one A-10 tourney), yet was labeled an 8-seed (albeit they suffered a couple injuries).

Same conference, one that's an MVC peer. How does Wichita's resume stack in comparison if WSU hypothetically dropped the MVC Final?

Thanks.

Saint Joseph's resume in 2004 was better than ours will be, if we also drop one in the MVC tournament. They were 12-1 overall against top 100 RPI, 4-1 against top 50, 2-0 against top 25.

George Washington in 2006 was 5-1 against top 100 RPI. 2-1 against top 50. No games against top 25.

WSU currently 6-0 against top 100 RPI, 3-0 against top 50 RPI, 1-0 against top 25.

Also, comparing SOS: Saint Joseph was #46, George Washington #207, Wichita State #103 (RPIForecast.com). RPI: Saint Joseph #3, George Washington #38, WSU #7 (RPIForecast.com).

If we dropped the MVC Final, our resume would likely be something like 7-1 against top 100, 5-1 against top 50 (assuming ISUb is who we lost to as the 2 seed, which would cement their top 50 spot). If MoSt was able to slip back into the top 100 (they're 102 right now), WSU would be 10-1 against the top 100, 5-1 against top 50, in that scenario. Either way, we'd have a much better resume than George Washington, worse than Saint Joseph's.

George Washington was a very weak two-loss team. We wouldn't have Saint Joseph's resume, though, and I don't think we have any shot at a 1-seed with a loss. I also don't think we have any shot at not getting a 1-seed if undefeated.

[TheAsianSensation]

Was beginning to go legwork by rhl04d saved me some time

To add on though:

2004 St Joseph's played SoS #69.

2006 G. Washington played SoS #220. Half the Valley that year had an RPI higher than them. And Creighton was one spot behind them.

Also, '04 A-10 >>>>>>>>>>>>>> '06 A-10. Everyone else in the '06 A-10 had at least 10 losses. That was NOT a good conference that year. I'm pretty sure that was a one-bid league.

Wichita St has more quality wins and a significantly better SoS, so they won't go full 8 seed anytime soon.

[rlh04d]

I edited the SOS in, too

[TheAsianSensation]

grumble grumble

Good week for Wichita - a bit of breathing room behind them, although if those teams get on a winning streak they'll erase it.

Full disclosure: I'm probably moving Florida past Wichita (and maybe Arizona) if they win at Rupp. And with yesterday's win, Syracuse has now reached the point where they will stay above Wichita after their first loss.

Updated list:
Teams that can get a 1 seed ahead of Wichita if they win out, even if Wichita is undefeated:
Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Villanova, Michigan St (health is a big factor here), Duke
Maybe:
Cincinnati, San Diego St, Iowa St, Creighton, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin
Probably not, but not impossible:
Kentucky, Virginia, Texas, Louisville, St Louis (yes, even with the H2H loss), Ohio St

[rlh04d]

Updated list:
Teams that can get a 1 seed ahead of Wichita if they win out, even if Wichita is undefeated:
Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Villanova, Michigan St (health is a big factor here), Duke
Maybe:
Cincinnati, San Diego St, Iowa St, Creighton, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin
Probably not, but not impossible:
Kentucky, Virginia, Texas, Louisville, St Louis (yes, even with the H2H loss), Ohio St

My list is shorter, but I also don't think more than two of those teams have much of a shot at winning out.

[Wufan]

grumble grumble

Good week for Wichita - a bit of breathing room behind them, although if those teams get on a winning streak they'll erase it.

Full disclosure: I'm probably moving Florida past Wichita (and maybe Arizona) if they win at Rupp. And with yesterday's win, Syracuse has now reached the point where they will stay above Wichita after their first loss.

Updated list:
Teams that can get a 1 seed ahead of Wichita if they win out, even if Wichita is undefeated:
Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Villanova, Michigan St (health is a big factor here), Duke
Maybe:
Cincinnati, San Diego St, Iowa St, Creighton, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin
Probably not, but not impossible:
Kentucky, Virginia, Texas, Louisville, St Louis (yes, even with the H2H loss), Ohio St

Other than the ridiculously long list of teams that could get a 1 seed over an undefeated Shocker squad, I don't disagree.

[TheAsianSensation]

The list was designed to be extra-inclusive - remember, I'm saying it assuming those teams don't lose before Selection Sunday, which means a 10 game win streak or more in all cases. Obviously almost none of them will actually do it.