Who wins in St. Louis

[BirdsEyeView]

I voted UNI...now I think I want to change my vote to Bradley. The Braves looked like the better team tonight.

Lol. UNI is squeaking out victories left and right.

[uniftw]

UNI beats a Thursday team by one possession and it's "they suck"

Illinois State beats a Thursday team by one point and it's "See. MSU is really good and can cause fits".

Just 4 days ago when UNI beat MSU by 3, on the road, it was "See, UNI wins but it's not by much. They suck".

Again, I voted WSU. I think UNI gets bounced on Saturday but can we at least try to be consistent here?

[Redbirds4Life]

last night, where ISU played one of it's worst games all year and won...

Really? Did we watch the same game?

Sure the defense and effort wasn't at the highest level but they were up against an inspired Bears team
that has the 3rd most talented roster in the Valley.

ISUr shot 45% FG 38% 3Pt and only had 8 TO's to 15 assists. I thought they responded well to adversity
and toughed out a difficult road win.

Wish Lee and Clayton would have hit their FT's at the end to make things easier but to say they played
one of their worst games is just wrong!

Not to start a pissing match on here, but I don't think we did watch the same game. They scored 2 points in the final 2 and a half minutes and your leader missed the front end of a 1 and 1 in a huge spot...not sure that constitutes as responding to adversity. Even in the last couple minutes, Missouri State missed on a lot of really good looks and a better team beats ISU last night. Offensively the stats may be there, but their defense wasn't very good at all, and if you have trouble stopping Missouri State, you can't say you played well. When you give a bad team that many open 3 point looks, of course that team is going to play inspired. ISU was extremely fortunate to win that game last night, because they didn't play well at all.

[Stickboy46]

UNI beats a Thursday team by one possession and it's "they suck"

Illinois State beats a Thursday team by one point and it's "See. MSU is really good and can cause fits".

Just 4 days ago when UNI beat MSU by 3, on the road, it was "See, UNI wins but it's not by much. They suck".

Again, I voted WSU. I think UNI gets bounced on Saturday but can we at least try to be consistent here?

Neither ISU or UNI has looked impressive lately but both have won .. The only impressive team lately (last 5-6 games) is WSU.

[uniftw]

UNI beats a Thursday team by one possession and it's "they suck"

Illinois State beats a Thursday team by one point and it's "See. MSU is really good and can cause fits".

Just 4 days ago when UNI beat MSU by 3, on the road, it was "See, UNI wins but it's not by much. They suck".

Again, I voted WSU. I think UNI gets bounced on Saturday but can we at least try to be consistent here?

Neither ISU or UNI has looked impressive lately but both have won .. The only impressive team lately (last 5-6 games) is WSU.

Don't disagree at all.

UNI has the defense to be good, but the offense is bad. If we need to score more than 65 or 66 to win it won't happen. Thankfully we've been able to keep scores low for the most part.

Go back to the any of the 7NCAA teams UNI has had over the last 13 years though and you'd see the same type of keep the game in the 50s and 60s pattern with games closer than they should be on the scoreboard.. Obviously this team isn't as good as those, but it's nice to see UNI playing "UNI basketball" to some extent again

[TheObserver]

Missouri State is a talented team with the byproduct of bad coaching. Bradley is just plain bad. Comparing Bradley (especially at home) to Missouri State isn't a good comparison.

UNI has lost to Bradley which is egregious. Illinois State has spanked them both times. UNI's comparisons start and end with they're the best of the rest (i.e. the toilet bowl).

[uniftw]

Missouri State is a talented team with the byproduct of bad coaching. Bradley is just plain bad. Comparing Bradley (especially at home) to Missouri State isn't a good comparison.

UNI has lost to Bradley which is egregious. Illinois State has spanked them both times. UNI's comparisons start and end with they're the best of the rest (i.e. the toilet bowl).

UNI also was without Morgan for that first game against BU.

Probably worth noting.

[BirdsEyeView]

last night, where ISU played one of it's worst games all year and won...

Really? Did we watch the same game?

Sure the defense and effort wasn't at the highest level but they were up against an inspired Bears team
that has the 3rd most talented roster in the Valley.

ISUr shot 45% FG 38% 3Pt and only had 8 TO's to 15 assists. I thought they responded well to adversity
and toughed out a difficult road win.

Wish Lee and Clayton would have hit their FT's at the end to make things easier but to say they played
one of their worst games is just wrong!

Not to start a pissing match on here, but I don't think we did watch the same game. They scored 2 points in the final 2 and a half minutes and your leader missed the front end of a 1 and 1 in a huge spot...not sure that constitutes as responding to adversity. Even in the last couple minutes, Missouri State missed on a lot of really good looks and a better team beats ISU last night. Offensively the stats may be there, but their defense wasn't very good at all, and if you have trouble stopping Missouri State, you can't say you played well. When you give a bad team that many open 3 point looks, of course that team is going to play inspired. ISU was extremely fortunate to win that game last night, because they didn't play well at all.

I will argue that MSU, when they play inspired (which goes to the UNI fans post above) is top 3 in talent in this league. I think they played inspired last night for the first time in awhile. I watched them against UNI the other day and they looked completely disinterested for most of it.

I'm also of the belief that they are much better than 6-9 in conference, if it weren't for their coach. In their losses, they have lost by...

3 (OT)
8
6
1 (OT)
1 (OT)
8
18 (WSU)
3
1

Average losing margin (excluding WSU) = 3.875 points per game

Honestly, that's either bad luck or poor execution, especially down the stretch. I think it's the Lusk effect....but they are NOT 6 or 7 seed poor in my opinion watching them play.

[Stickboy46]

UNI beats a Thursday team by one possession and it's "they suck"

Illinois State beats a Thursday team by one point and it's "See. MSU is really good and can cause fits".

Just 4 days ago when UNI beat MSU by 3, on the road, it was "See, UNI wins but it's not by much. They suck".

Again, I voted WSU. I think UNI gets bounced on Saturday but can we at least try to be consistent here?

Neither ISU or UNI has looked impressive lately but both have won .. The only impressive team lately (last 5-6 games) is WSU.

Don't disagree at all.

UNI has the defense to be good, but the offense is bad. If we need to score more than 65 or 66 to win it won't happen. Thankfully we've been able to keep scores low for the most part.

Go back to the any of the 7NCAA teams UNI has had over the last 13 years though and you'd see the same type of keep the game in the 50s and 60s pattern with games closer than they should be on the scoreboard.. Obviously this team isn't as good as those, but it's nice to see UNI playing "UNI basketball" to some extent again

Some KenPom numbers for perspective

UNI AdjO = 97.5 (286th), AdjD 95.4 (34th)
ISU AdjO = 106.7 (130th), AdjD 92.3 (13th)
WSU AdjO = 117.5 (17th), AdjD 93.4 (22nd)

Last Year:
UNI 108.5, 97.3
ISU 102.9, 98.2
WSU 110.2, 87.6

So You are correct, UNI Defense is good, though still a bit off of ISU and WSU. Offense is absolutely terrible. On average with 100 possessions, UNI would score 20 points less than WSU. UNI defense is slightly better than last year but over 10 points per 100 possessions worse on offense. WSU is actually drastically better than last year on offense and actually better on offense than the undefeated team (though slightly worse on defense. 93.4 vs 91.8).

[Khan4Cats]

I voted for WSU because I think they have the total package. But being a one and done situation, anything can happen, it only takes one hot game from an underdog to take down one of the top two.

Here's my assessment:

1) WSU 51% to win it all. has both the athletes to get into an up and down game with anyone. They also have a depth and variety of impact players that can be mixed and matched as needed. An example: Nurger and Morris at the 5. Two different body types, two different style of games, both can compete at a high level and cause fits. Add to that Marshall coaching and instilling discipline that can frustrate the other teams that are built more for athleticism. The Shockers have all of the pieces. They can survive regardless of how officials are calling the game.

2) Illinois State. 20% chance. I put them here because they are a team that seems to ride on their athleticism and just out-ballin the opposition rather than running sets. I don't attribute much to coaching at all and I don't think they can overcome a bad stretch of things not going their way-which is highly possible in one-and-done situations. They have been successful this year because of their experience, but I think a team that can force them into a half-court game that requires high basketball IQ decisions in pressure situations can put them in a bind. Officials calling a tight game could also be a tripping point.

3) UNI. 15% chance. I will get ripped since they are nothing compared to WSU and ISUr, but I put them here because of the system and coach. UNI has NEVER been the most athletic team in the conference. They get by with their system which multiplies the sum of the parts beyond individuals. It starts with a defensive philosophy of limiting possessions and forcing teams to work. When UNI is really good is when their offense is also clicking with inside/out threats. Amazingly, that has been almost totally missing so far this year. We have been more successful lately getting the ball inside, but our outside shooting has been stagnant-if that heats up for a weekend, UNI will be a tough out. UNI is locked into either the 3 or 4 seed. Personally, I would prefer the 4 to give them the extra rest going into Saturday, but that assumes we can get out of Friday.

4) Missouri State. 5% I see them as very similar to Illinois State as a highly athletic team that just wants to ball. Their coach is their achilles heel and their youth compared to ISU is a separating factor. This is a team that could get hot for three days and have the ability knock off the big two on good given day. Still a 45~% chance they play Thursday.

5) Loyola and SIU. <5% Both these teams have good pieces, I just am not sure about the overall depth to get it done. They each have players that are capable of carrying their team for a couple of games, but will need help to make a run. Both are more likely to avoid Thursday than MSU, but I don't think have as great a chance to win 3 in 3.

7-8) Indiana State and Evansville. 3% These are potentially dangerous teams if they could somehow avoid Thursday. (Less than 3% chance of that for the Sycs, less than 20% for the Aces).

9) Bradley. <1% Wardle is building this team in the shape of Wichita. He is getting them to play hard on defense, he is getting some athletes in, they just need experience. I don't see them as a Thursday team next year and they will be just getting better if the coach can keep them together. Very slim chance to

10) Drake. 0% Yeah, they could win a game on Thursday, but that is it this year.