Updated 1/6/18: MVC Expansion Poll

[Kip Dynamite]

Nothing may become of this but it looks like Missouri State may positioning themselves for a future move to FBS football.

https://amp.news-leader.com/amp/8247819002

The president of MSU was on the radio at halftime of the football game yesterday and said that they are using an architecture firm to take a look at the football stadium and that while they’re happy where they’re at, they’re not sitting on the sidelines.

[VUGrad1314]

Nothing may become of this but it looks like Missouri State may positioning themselves for a future move to FBS football.

https://amp.news-leader.com/amp/8247819002

The president of MSU was on the radio at halftime of the football game yesterday and said that they are using an architecture firm to take a look at the football stadium and that while they’re happy where they’re at, they’re not sitting on the sidelines.

Selfishly, I hope they stay. They are one of the best overall athletic departments in the conference. Losing them would be a heavy blow in multiple sports.

I've seen some chatter (from 365Sports a Baylor outfit) that the Big XII might expand in two waves with even more AAC teams as their targets (South Florida Memphis SMU as well as Boise State and (debatably) Colorado State of the MWC were mentioned. If that happens I have to wonder whether the idea of a team like Tulsa going independent in football and rejoining the MVC might be possible but I think they would lose any share of playoff revenue by not being in a conference so I'd still say that's unlikely. A WSU reunion however could be very possible depending on what the MWC does either in response to losing teams or in a potential expansion.

If anyone's interested here's that link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbBiaVjQwe0

As for UT-Arlington I think that both school and conference would be well-served by looking elsewhere. I just don't see it as a good match for either side. If I had to guess I would say the WAC with its new Texas footprint makes more sense for them if they do decide to leave the Sun Belt.

[Red]

Nothing may become of this but it looks like Missouri State may positioning themselves for a future move to FBS football.

https://amp.news-leader.com/amp/8247819002

The president of MSU was on the radio at halftime of the football game yesterday and said that they are using an architecture firm to take a look at the football stadium and that while they’re happy where they’re at, they’re not sitting on the sidelines.

Maybe you guys can rejoin WSU in the AAC.

[BEARZ77]

Nothing may become of this but it looks like Missouri State may positioning themselves for a future move to FBS football.

https://amp.news-leader.com/amp/8247819002

The president of MSU was on the radio at halftime of the football game yesterday and said that they are using an architecture firm to take a look at the football stadium and that while they’re happy where they’re at, they’re not sitting on the sidelines.

Maybe you guys can rejoin WSU in the AAC.

There's so much shakeout still to come at the P-5 level , the AAC may not survive having lost UCONN/Houston/Cinn/ UCF and Memphis sure to grab the first spot it can somewhere. Best chance for a school like us would be in some league combining schools left over in a reconfiguration of conferences like the AAC/USA/ SUNBELT. Not really interested in the MAC, too north and east, but certainly that's a league UNI and Illinois State would make sense to if they want to move up . It'll be interesting to see what the next 5 years bring; we have the enrollment, facilities,aggressive administration, and location to be a possibility, but where ya get the $$$ I don't know.

[BCPanther]

UNI is a dying institution in a small population state. Our chances to move up died about 15 years ago when the university president at the time decided to cap enrollment in a year where enrollment could have gotten to 18 or 19,000. Today we're barely at 10,000.

I fully expect that we'll be the University of Iowa at Cedar Falls within 10 years and be nothing more than a satellite campus to run the education and accounting programs for Iowa along with some general business degrees. Whether we retain DI status is completely dependent on the whim of our Board of Regents who has been trying to drive UNI out of existence since the early 90s.

[Kip Dynamite]

UNI is a dying institution in a small population state. Our chances to move up died about 15 years ago when the university president at the time decided to cap enrollment in a year where enrollment could have gotten to 18 or 19,000. Today we're barely at 10,000.

I fully expect that we'll be the University of Iowa at Cedar Falls within 10 years and be nothing more than a satellite campus to run the education and accounting programs for Iowa along with some general business degrees. Whether we retain DI status is completely dependent on the whim of our Board of Regents who has been trying to drive UNI out of existence since the early 90s.

This is exactly why Missouri State is keeping their options open and looking around right now. They are going in the opposite direction with about 25,000 students and growing and don’t want to get left behind in the 3rd tier when the power five breakaway. And let’s be honest, at this point it’s not like they’re really sacrificing basketball because we all know that you have to almost go undefeated in the MVC to get a second bid anymore.

They admitted recently that they funded all of their athletics pretty well except football over the years and they’re now trying to make up for that. They are not going to leave the MVC tomorrow but they are wanting to get their football facilities ready. All of their other athletic facilities are already at a G5 level.

There were a lot of rumors about this a few years back and they weren’t all completely false. The timing just wasn’t right. I think now is a different story. They believe it’s kind of getting to a now or never stage and if they are ever going to make the move they better start doing more than just thinking about it. It is, however, going to be a very heavy lift for fundraising so that is going to dictate how far and how much upgrades to football facilities they are able to actually do.

[mvfcfan]

Patty V in the past has said in interviews that the MVFC office has at least discussed maybe trying to go FBS at some point down the road. I think 9 of the 11 schools would be FBS ready tomorrow if they needed to be. INSU and WIU would probably get left behind, unless they really invest in their facilities and I don't think either school has the money or the will.

FBS costs more, but you also make more for P5 money games and bowl games. Apparently a lot of FCS schools think it is worth the money.

Personally I think if the P5 ever splits off G5 FBS and FCS will be at the same level. These G5 schools are just trying to keep up with the Big Boys and are hoping to maybe get an invite to the party if and when the split happens. I do think the Big East will be part of the split and if you are a non-FB school that is the conference you want to be in if you don't want left behind.

[BEARZ77]

I agree alot with your last paragraph.

[goramblers2011]

Patty V in the past has said in interviews that the MVFC office has at least discussed maybe trying to go FBS at some point down the road. I think 9 of the 11 schools would be FBS ready tomorrow if they needed to be. INSU and WIU would probably get left behind, unless they really invest in their facilities and I don't think either school has the money or the will.

FBS costs more, but you also make more for P5 money games and bowl games. Apparently a lot of FCS schools think it is worth the money.

Personally I think if the P5 ever splits off G5 FBS and FCS will be at the same level. These G5 schools are just trying to keep up with the Big Boys and are hoping to maybe get an invite to the party if and when the split happens. I do think the Big East will be part of the split and if you are a non-FB school that is the conference you want to be in if you don't want left behind.

I think it is more likely that football breaks away completely from the NCAA, but other sports stay put. Football is the cash cow and the NCAA really doesn't do anything for college football. The College Football Playoff is separate and apart from the NCAA (as was the BCS and as is the bowl system).

NCAA does play an important part in non-revenue sports as well as running March Madness. I think March Madness is a cash cow because of its history, the number of teams involved, upsets, etc. And the TV deal, which drives that revenue, is between the NCAA and CBS (and goes through 2032). Schools don't want to rock that money boat. I think big time programs disaffiliate with the NCAA for football but they (through their conferences) stay put for other sports.

[VUGrad1314]

I was just thinking about how this expansion affects our peer leagues as well as the Big XII and by extension the MVC. You can make the argument that the Big XII just got better in basketball or at the very least they certainly didn't get any worse. The AAC just suffered a heavy blow that will be hard to recover from especially if they don't make basketball their priority when backfilling which they likely won't because of the importance of football. Some of the best potential football adds aren't great at basketball (Appalachian State Louisiana-Lafayette and Coastal Carolina if you buy that the latter two have staying power) come to mind though there are some good potentially balanced choices out there like UAB Marshall and North Texas. This is a big blow to the AAC regardless and brings them much closer to this tier of basketball than the P5+BE. If they choose the balanced route they probably still remain a viable multibid conference (or at least a conference that has a real good shot at multiple bids but they'd be in the same tier as the MVC MWC A10 WCC. However there is more to the story here than just the AAC\Big XII fallout.

BYU leaving the WCC (I have seen no indication whatsoever that this is anything but a full membership) is a MASSIVE blow to the conference. This could very well cost them Gonzaga. They already gave Gonzaga all the concessions they reasonably could have one of which was a 16 game conference schedule to help Gonzaga face less exposure to the bottom of the conference. That's all well and good when you still have BYU but with BYU gone and a 9 member league right now you're looking at a 16 game conference schedule with a double round robin. That insulation from the bottom feeders is gone and so is the home and home with BYU. That is crushing to Gonzaga's SOS and there is no realistic add the WCC could make that even comes remotely close to replacing BYU. The short list is likely Seattle Cal Baptist Grand Canyon and Denver and none of those programs are anywhere near BYU's caliber. The league just got a lot worse and they have few or no concessions left to offer Gonzaga if they make noise about leaving again.

Which brings me to the Mountain West. I can't see any school from the Mountain West joining an AAC without Cincinnati Houston or UCF but I CAN see them with their status as the #1 G5 likely secure at this point (unless the AAC goes all in on football and throws basketball to the wayside which would be a mistake because they still have schools like Memphis SMU and especially Wichita State to whom basketball is important) recruiting Gonzaga but successfully this time as part of a basketball focused strategy that doesn't hurt football but adds significantly to the value and profile of the conference. Even though the WCC finished higher than the MWC in the NET you have to consider that that was WITH Gonzaga and BYU. If you look at the top of the respective conferences you see that the WCC had four teams in the top 99 of the conference including Gonzaga and BYU while the Mountain West had four teams in the top 51 of the conference without Gonzaga and BYU. Even if I expand it out to the top 110 which gives the WCC a 6-5 advantage with BYU gone it becomes 5-5 and the MWC is stronger at each position except Gonzaga. Observe:

Top 5 NET ratings: WCC (Without BYU who is departing) :

Gonzaga 1

St Mary's 62

Loyola Marymount 99

San Francisco 105

Pepperdine 110

MWC:

San Diego State 18

Utah State 39

Boise State 50

Colorado State 51

Nevada 96

So as we can see with BYU gone the only team besides Gonzaga that provides even one Q1 opportunity is St Mary's. Meanwhile, the Mountain West would provide upwards of 5 Q1 games The #2 WCC team (St Mary's would have finished 5th in the MWC according to the NET while every other WCC team listed would have been outside the top 5 and that was with the WCC teams having the benefit of playing BYU. I'm willing to bet that the Mountain West would be willing to grant the same scheduling flexibility to Gonzaga that the WCC did if it got them to sign on and if that's the case I have a hard time imagining how the Bulldogs say no this time. The SOS benefits would be massive and one could no longer use Gonzaga's schedule or the quality of gyms they would play their games in against them in recruiting (not that that's hurting them too much but it is a factor).

Secondarily, I can imagine a universe where the Mountain West doesn't stop at just Gonzaga. If Gonzaga is their target and they're smart they would look to strengthen the conference even further by engaging schools like Wichita State and St Mary's in talks about joining to further strengthen the top of the conference and all schools more opportunities at Marquee games. (This assumes Hawaii wouldn't rejoin as a full member if the quality of the basketball conference improves significantly which isn't a guarantee. I think they would strongly consider it and the opportunity to play games in Hawaii no doubt appeals to recruits). In that case you take the top two between Gonzaga Wichita State and St Mary's. If the Mountain West is aggressive and smart they can build a western version of the old Big East with lesser football but just as good basketball that would be super valuable to its members.

How this affects the MVC:


I say all of that to say this: We probably have until 2023-2025 before any of this takes effect. The best thing we can do for ourselves is have another great year or two to stoke the interest of our primary expansion candidates. If the Mountain West is able to lure Gonzaga (and I'm not saying it's a lock but it just got infinitely more plausible) that makes things even more difficult for the MVC most years to fight for those last few at large bids especially if the AAC also takes the balanced approach and adds decent basketball strength as they backfill. If I remember the bubble correctly Drake beat out two Mountain West clubs (Colorado State and Boise State who I think were Next Four Out) and at least one AAC team (Memphis but SMU might have been on that list too I don't remember both were next four out anyway I believe) so an AAC that can weather the storm a bit in basketball as well as a stronger Mountain West is a significant issue for the MVC especially if they don't likewise expand (with the right teams of course). The impetus to take another serious look at expansion would be very strong. At a time like this we could really use an assist from a conference like the Atlantic Sun creating further instability in the OVC to shake Belmont loose alongside Murray State. If we can get those two and they perform to their capabilities and we stay strong as a conference our conference should be able to remain in the mix for at larges no matter what happens. As far as that goes however I feel like the MVC controls its own destiny. Perform well and we can get the help we need even in this new shifting climate. At the very least it will add more quality games to the schedule in a world where finding those games is getting tougher and tougher at our level.