Khan4Cats wrote:I voted for WSU because I think they have the total package. But being a one and done situation, anything can happen, it only takes one hot game from an underdog to take down one of the top two.
Here's my assessment:
1) WSU 51% to win it all. has both the athletes to get into an up and down game with anyone. They also have a depth and variety of impact players that can be mixed and matched as needed. An example: Nurger and Morris at the 5. Two different body types, two different style of games, both can compete at a high level and cause fits. Add to that Marshall coaching and instilling discipline that can frustrate the other teams that are built more for athleticism. The Shockers have all of the pieces. They can survive regardless of how officials are calling the game.
2) Illinois State. 20% chance. I put them here because they are a team that seems to ride on their athleticism and just out-ballin the opposition rather than running sets. I don't attribute much to coaching at all and I don't think they can overcome a bad stretch of things not going their way-which is highly possible in one-and-done situations. They have been successful this year because of their experience, but I think a team that can force them into a half-court game that requires high basketball IQ decisions in pressure situations can put them in a bind. Officials calling a tight game could also be a tripping point.
3) UNI. 15% chance. I will get ripped since they are nothing compared to WSU and ISUr, but I put them here because of the system and coach. UNI has NEVER been the most athletic team in the conference. They get by with their system which multiplies the sum of the parts beyond individuals. It starts with a defensive philosophy of limiting possessions and forcing teams to work. When UNI is really good is when their offense is also clicking with inside/out threats. Amazingly, that has been almost totally missing so far this year. We have been more successful lately getting the ball inside, but our outside shooting has been stagnant-if that heats up for a weekend, UNI will be a tough out. UNI is locked into either the 3 or 4 seed. Personally, I would prefer the 4 to give them the extra rest going into Saturday, but that assumes we can get out of Friday.
4) Missouri State. 5% I see them as very similar to Illinois State as a highly athletic team that just wants to ball. Their coach is their achilles heel and their youth compared to ISU is a separating factor. This is a team that could get hot for three days and have the ability knock off the big two on good given day. Still a 45~% chance they play Thursday.
5) Loyola and SIU. <5% Both these teams have good pieces, I just am not sure about the overall depth to get it done. They each have players that are capable of carrying their team for a couple of games, but will need help to make a run. Both are more likely to avoid Thursday than MSU, but I don't think have as great a chance to win 3 in 3.
7-8) Indiana State and Evansville. 3% These are potentially dangerous teams if they could somehow avoid Thursday. (Less than 3% chance of that for the Sycs, less than 20% for the Aces).
9) Bradley. <1% Wardle is building this team in the shape of Wichita. He is getting them to play hard on defense, he is getting some athletes in, they just need experience. I don't see them as a Thursday team next year and they will be just getting better if the coach can keep them together. Very slim chance to
10) Drake. 0% Yeah, they could win a game on Thursday, but that is it this year.
I think this is a pretty good assessment. But I would change it just a bit:
WSU 45% chance to win St. Louis. Shockers are the best team. Would be higher except for their history at arch madness
ISUr 40% chance. McIntosh played last night and he looked pretty good. That's huge. Best starting 5.
UNI 10% chance. Significantly less talent but with Jake as their coach always a chance.
All other MVC teams combined 5% chance. Really less than 1% for the other 7 (per team) combined. MSU might win a game or 2 because we do have superior talent (outside of wsu and ISUr ) but no way a Lusk coached team wins 3 in a row at the arch.
