by uniguy » May 17th, 2017, 5:55 pm
So I used to have a screen name back in the ValleyTalk Days, and I think I had one on here long ago (although I can't remember what it was). Eventually I just sort of faded away from this board as the Wichita folks got overwhelming. I would still read from time-to-time in season and when big events happened, but just stopped posting.
Anyway I feel compelled to come back. Losing Wichita may not be good for the league, but it is definitely good for this board.
One of the positives of Wichita leaving is that the league is competitive again. You can make an argument that five or six teams could win. It isn't "who can stay with Wichita" or "can anybody catch Wichita", etc. I am hopeful that some programs that have been in the doldrums will maybe even see a revival with a little room to breathe now that Wichita is gone. It definitely sucks that multiple bids will be harder, but there is a silver lining here.
Anyway, here are my way-too-early picks for the MVC next year. The best part about it is how hard it was. Honestly wouldn't be shocked if anyone 1-6 won it this year. That is very exciting.
10.) Drake- Could see the new coach plus Reed Timmer get them out of the cellar, but will likely be a Thursday team again.
9.) Evansville- Unless it is one of their new recruits, I don't see who on their roster can shoulder the load offensively in their typical system this year.
8.) Indiana State- Kind of an enigma. They had one of the better noncons in the league last year and fell apart in league play. Scott can ball. Wouldn't be surprised if they finish in the middle, but if I had to guess I would put them on Thursday.
7.) Southern Illinois- They have a good chunk of the cast returning, but lost a couple key pieces. They were decent last year, and could certainly finish higher than this, but I think a mid-pack finish like last year is their best cased scenario.
6.) Valpo- The Crusaders are extremely hard to peg. They had the second best season of any current MVC member last year, and would have been very competitive last year. But they lost their stud and their second leading scorer to boot. But they have some P5 transfers coming eligible and some good supporting pieces back. If those transfers become impact guys (which doesn't always happen....ask Drake) then Valpo could be in the top third of the league. Otherwise I envision somewhere in the middle.
5.) Missouri State- I know many of the prognosticators are high on these guys, but I have a tough time having faith in a Paul Lusk team until they show me something. Yes, Alize Johnson is a BEAST, but this is a team that went 7-11 last year and had to use the RPI tiebreaker to (barely) get avoid Thursday over Bradley. I don't understand why everyone thinks they are the favorites. Do they have a big influx of talent (honestly asking....I don't follow recruiting closely)? Otherwise, I have a hard time seeing them on top. I hope they prove me wrong....a strong MSU would be a coup for the MVC.
4.) Bradley- In year one Wardle's freshmen showed strides as the season went on. Year two, the freshmen and sophomores made big strides and almost avoided Thursday. I think this is the year they "break out" into the Valley's upper division. They'll play in the CIT and maybe win it too. They'll be a real contender next year.
3.) UNI- I have seen a lot of skepticism of my Panthers on this board and, honestly, I completely get it. We were bad last year and we lost easily our best player. On paper, we should not be very good. But I also understand why UNI fans are more optimistic. Last year we relied on a lot of young guys to play big minutes. Coach Jake tends to get major improvments out of young guys. I think UNI fans are banking on improvements from players like McCloud, Haldeman, Brown, and McDonnell which will complement veterans like Koch, Carlson and Lohaus. Throw in a few new guys and that is where the optimism lies. If we don't get improvements from the young guys.....yeah we'll suck.
2.) Loyola- Like MSU, I have a hard time putting Loyola this high, but it is hard to deny where they are. They had one of the better seasons of the MVC's "other" teams last year (although that isn't saying much). Losing Doyle hurts, but they have 3 double digit scorers returning and an outstanding recruiting class. Loyola hasn't been this hyped as an MVC school, and based on the last 30 years I doubt it happened much as a Horizon League member. If Moser and his guys can make that transition to favorite....Loyola could be good enough to win the thing.
1.) Illinois State- The Redbirds are here because they earned it. They went 18-0 against current MVC teams last year. And the next closest (SIU) went 10-8. So that is a huge gap to make up. ISU Red was decimated by graduations and defections, and although they have a big influx of talent and couple talented players left....this will be a very different ISU team. They are here because they dominated what is left of the league last year and they earned it. But they certainly are not heavy favorites.
Those are my thoughts. Go MVC!
