Official 2017-18 MVCfans.com Prediction - 3rd Place

[BEARZ77]

I'll defend uniftw a bit in that I really do respect Koch's offensive skills. And a big guy who shoots 57%/76% fg/fts is giving good production. I do think the turnover to assist numbers are pretty bad and along with his foul troubles keeping him to 20 mpg are both things that need to improve if he's going to be a true impact guy.

But here's the thing and not just about Koch; it's one of my issues with sabermetrics and stat projections. Saying a guy's stats who averages 11ppg project to 20 ppg if he played x minutes, isn't the same as the guy who is doing it. They're fictitious numbers that you're making too many assumptions about. I have no problem saying you got really good production for the minutes he played, but making the assumption a guy who averaged x ppg or rbs in x minutes would average x more if he played whatever additional minutes and is therefore on the level with a guy who actually produced real stats is folly. Real stats win games , projections don't. You can make stats say whatever you want, but sometimes they make you think things that common sense and your vision tell you are not accurate. I know it's the trend in sports, and I do think there is value in looking at things from different angles, but projected stats just aren't the same as real statistics.

[BirdsEyeView]

I know it's the trend in sports, and I do think there is value in looking at things from different angles, but projected stats just aren't the same as real statistics.

My fantasy football team agrees with you there. Always under-performing their projected points!

[Red]

What's the deal with Alize? Did he get hurt? if so, I might need to change my vote.

[Born2Shock]

I'll defend uniftw a bit in that I really do respect Koch's offensive skills. And a big guy who shoots 57%/76% fg/fts is giving good production. I do think the turnover to assist numbers are pretty bad and along with his foul troubles keeping him to 20 mpg are both things that need to improve if he's going to be a true impact guy.

But here's the thing and not just about Koch; it's one of my issues with sabermetrics and stat projections. Saying a guy's stats who averages 11ppg project to 20 ppg if he played x minutes, isn't the same as the guy who is doing it. They're fictitious numbers that you're making too many assumptions about. I have no problem saying you got really good production for the minutes he played, but making the assumption a guy who averaged x ppg or rbs in x minutes would average x more if he played whatever additional minutes and is therefore on the level with a guy who actually produced real stats is folly. Real stats win games , projections don't. You can make stats say whatever you want, but sometimes they make you think things that common sense and your vision tell you are not accurate. I know it's the trend in sports, and I do think there is value in looking at things from different angles, but projected stats just aren't the same as real statistics.

I agree that advanced stats arent the be all/end all of things to consider. However, uniftw said Koch was the most efficient player last year and it wasnt close, and that I could look it up. So I did. And...it wasnt the case. He was the one touting the advanced metrics to pimp Koch.

[Redbirds4Life]

1. UNI
2. MSU
3. ISUr
4. SIU
5. Brad
6. Loyola
7. Drake
8. Valpo
9. Evan
10. ISUb

[BirdsEyeView]

1. UNI
2. MSU
3. ISUr
4. SIU
5. Brad
6. Loyola
7. Drake
8. Valpo
9. Evan
10. ISUb

LOL

[BirdsEyeView]

What's the deal with Alize? Did he get hurt? if so, I might need to change my vote.

I heard Greg Williams is out again this year

[BEARZ77]

It's been known about Williams for a while; he had another surgery this past week with the hope it might finally correct the problem[ sports hernia and complications]. If not he will probably never play; if it does , then we'll see come this spring/summer what's possible. Gotta pull for the kid, he's had such a string of problems related to this. As far as Alize, again was reported about a week ago he had a MCL sprain; doesn't appear serious, but they are being careful and holding him out of most activity for 4 weeks. Probably ready at start, but have to see.

[Sir Sci]

What's the deal with Alize? Did he get hurt? if so, I might need to change my vote.

He has a minor injury, but is expected to be ready for the first game of the season. He won't be available for the KSU exhibition, though.

[Blers]

The Greg Williams stuff really sucks. Did you all land him knowing injuries were a risk or has it been one fluke after the other? Regardless I feel bad for the kid.