How long before the AAC implodes?

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

Don't understand the precept that that the AAC is about to implode. Currently the # 8 ranked BB conference--relative to the #10 MVC. Some decent teams in the AAC. Several good teams on the cusp of moving to a p6 conference. Big 12 should grab Houston this afternoon. Memphis, Cincy and BYU also Big 12 possibles. BYU and Cincy may be out of B12 foot print, but WVA is already in B12. If WVA why not Cincy?

I think some MVC dudes want to be hard over on the AAC because WSU dropped the MVC to join the AAC.

# 10 Realtime ranked MVC not looking good right now---if poor play continues should be happy come selection time that they are guaranteed one NCAA slot.

Nobody is saying its going to go away just drastically drop. Cincy, UCONN, Houston, UCF, and Memphis will all be in P5 conferences at some point when they all expand to 16 which is inevitable. That leaves them to replace them with teams from the Sun Belt and CUSA since they are mainly a football conference. Not many great basketball teams in those conferences. Basketball will drop significantly and football wont be considered the 6/7th best anymore either. Their basketball will be 15th-20th with what's left IF NOT LOWER. Wichita at that point will be in a worse situation than in the MVC. They will look o get out and in the MWC, A-10, back in the MVC, or what they think over on their board the Big East (which will never happen).

[IWokeUpLikeThis]

ACC/B1G/SEC might expand to 16, sure. PAC/BXII will NOT unless it’s merging with each other. The P65 want that number as exclusive as possible; they don’t want to dilute the power unless it guarantees every school more money. You’re not going to see that P65 number ever increase to more than P70.

Even if we take your premise the AAC would lose Cincy, UConn, UCF, Houston, & Memphis - which would be years down the road - that would leave the AAC with a BB lineup of:
UMass*
Buffalo*
Temple
ODU*
ECU
USF
UAB*
Tulane
Rice*
SMU
Tulsa
Wichita


FAR from “15th-20th if not LOWER”. Heck, that might still be 7th.

(All 5 additions check the boxes for FBS football and TV markets.)

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

ACC/B1G/SEC might expand to 16, sure. PAC/BXII will NOT unless it’s merging with each other. The P65 want that number as exclusive as possible; they don’t want to dilute the power unless it guarantees every school more money. You’re not going to see that P65 number ever increase to more than P70.

Even if we take your premise the AAC would lose Cincy, UConn, UCF, Houston, & Memphis - which would be years down the road - that would leave the AAC with a BB lineup of:
UMass*
Buffalo*
Temple
ODU*
ECU
USF
UAB*
Tulane
Rice*
SMU
Tulsa
Wichita


FAR from “15th-20th if not LOWER”. Heck, that might still be 7th.

(All 5 additions check the boxes for FBS football and TV markets.)

You are correct that basketball is better than expected but football sucks bad.

[VUGrad1314]

ACC/B1G/SEC might expand to 16, sure. PAC/BXII will NOT unless it’s merging with each other. The P65 want that number as exclusive as possible; they don’t want to dilute the power unless it guarantees every school more money. You’re not going to see that P65 number ever increase to more than P70.

Even if we take your premise the AAC would lose Cincy, UConn, UCF, Houston, & Memphis - which would be years down the road - that would leave the AAC with a BB lineup of:
UMass*
Buffalo*
Temple
ODU*
ECU
USF
UAB*
Tulane
Rice*
SMU
Tulsa
Wichita


FAR from “15th-20th if not LOWER”. Heck, that might still be 7th.

(All 5 additions check the boxes for FBS football and TV markets.)

You are correct that basketball is better than expected but football sucks bad.

Is that league really better than the current MVC? Would Wichita State stick around for that? Would they pay those travel costs? Sure it has a national footprint and markets so that's nice for recruiting but there are quite a few bad\iffy\inconsistent programs in there. I think Wichita State would be considering their alternatives and would probably find the MVC or MWC preferable. I also think Tulsa SMU Rice and Tulane would push for Mountain West membership before they ever signed off on this.

I think the AAC is going to have to choose between football and Olympic sports if that mass exodus occurs. They will no longer have both. And that's if they keep their large footprint. If they choose football as they probably will then the Shockers have no choice but to loook for the exit doors. It doesn't mean for sure they come back here but continued AAC membership will be untenable for them.

[Bulldog2323]

The only way I see any expansion/realignment happening is if UCF gets a third consecutive undefeated season, doesn't make the CFP, and there's no serious talk of expansion.

The Big 12 recently did an expansion study and determined no we shouldn't. Not much has changed since that study.

Media rights for the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, and the SEC on CBS all come up at the same time in 2023. The Big 12 will be the only P5 conference without a dedicated TV network, if they can get ESPN to turn the Longhorn Network into the Big 12 Network everything else will just renew.

I think the American and ESPN both like each other. The AAC might try for a 3 year extension just to line up with the other conferences, but ultimately mass realignment seems extremely unlikely at this point.

[VUGrad1314]

Can't see Texas going for that

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

I'm not sure why you say mass realignment is unlikely. When the NCAA (supposedly likely) loses the lawsuit they are involved in that will allow conferences to make their own rules from everything I read the flood gates will open.

[VUGrad1314]

They will appeal the crap out of that and in the meantime will apply for (and perhaps even receive) an antitrust exemption. I don't know why they didn't do that decades ago.

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

I'm not sure why all D1 colleges just dont break away. Why do they need them? They are more powerful than the NCAA

[TheAsianSensation]

It took a few years after the initial discussion of a playoff for the BCS to become a 4 team playoff. I think we'll follow a similar pattern for an 8-team playoff. It'll take a few years to get there, but it'll get there.

Two key questions for when it happens:
1) Does the G5 get an autobid or not?
2) Will the Big 12 expand/be forced to expand?

I do think there'll be some external pressure on the Big 12. 10 team conference, everyone else at 12 or 14; I could see some pressure put on them to expand solely because there's less teams to go through for a conference title. That's where I'd expect Cincy to be in play. I also think there's a real chance BYU would sacrifice independence during another significant change. Everyone needs to slow their roll on UCF; I'm not sure they even get the callup if there's further realignment.

If the G5 gets an autobid, AAC has a very easy move. Poach 4 MWC schools. Whichever 4 you think are strongest, doesn't matter. They are the best G5 conference; they will want to consolidate their power among the G5 and turn that autobid into a AAC conference champ spot.

I don't see any scenario right now where the AAC loses more than 2 schools at once. Maybe 3 if the combination is UConn to Big East/Memphis and Cincy to the Big 12. They could easily become a 10-team conference at that point, or expand west and try and consolidate power. Wichita will be plenty fine in either scenario.