When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

[Hacksaw]

Of course you've seen all the predictive metrics above for seeding, but from a historical perspective, how often does a team achieve a certain tournament seed based upon their record to date? The below chart covers that question:



Teams that start 2-7 or worse have always played in a PIG.
Teams that start 3-6 have avoided a PIG 35% of the time.
Teams that start 4-5 have avoided a PIG 50% of the time.
Teams that start 5-4 have avoided a PIG 83% of the time.
Teams that start 6-3 have avoided a PIG 96% of the time.
Teams that start 7-2 or better have always avoided a PIG.

[Saluki 4 Life]

bump.

[Hacksaw]

I got you! It doesn't take too long to run after I get the updated Sagarin and NET ratings in the morning.

[Saluki 4 Life]

I got you! It doesn't take too long to run after I get the updated Sagarin and NET ratings in the morning.

Thanks man! you're the best... strongly supports my "SIU will avoid the play in with 8-10" theory.

[Hacksaw]

... strongly supports my "SIU will avoid the play in with 8-10" theory.

This is interesting. Since 1997, there have been 22 teams that have finished 8-10, and it's actually an exact 50/50 split of playing Thursday or not. In fact, five of the last six 8-10's have avoided the PIG.



At the moment, my model is suggesting 8-10 gives SIU about a 50/50 chance of Thursday, however that is the best odds in the league at that record.



SIU also does have the best NET rating of the group amongst the teams likely to finish with around 8 wins and a season sweep of UNI already, so any H2H or group tie including UNI will be to SIU's advantage.

[Saluki 4 Life]

... strongly supports my "SIU will avoid the play in with 8-10" theory.

This is interesting. Since 1997, there have been 22 teams that have finished 8-10, and it's actually an exact 50/50 split of playing Thursday or not. In fact, five of the last six 8-10's have avoided the PIG.



At the moment, my model is suggesting 8-10 gives SIU about a 50/50 chance of Thursday, however that is the best odds in the league at that record.



SIU also does have the best NET rating of the group amongst the teams likely to finish with around 8 wins and a season sweep of UNI already, so any H2H or group tie including UNI will be to SIU's advantage.

Very interesting.... It would seem to me that this is a year where there may be multiple teams tie in places and tie breaks are key in determining seeding. Without any metrics just looking at schedules I have Bradley, SIU, UNI, Indiana State and Evansville all between 6-8 wins. I am betting 8 wins avoids Thursday for somebody, also depending how it shakes out 8 wins could be good enough for a 5 seed for someone too... really strange.

[Hacksaw]

Very interesting.... It would seem to me that this is a year where there may be multiple teams tie in places and tie breaks are key in determining seeding. Without any metrics just looking at schedules I have Bradley, SIU, UNI, Indiana State and Evansville all between 6-8 wins. I am betting 8 wins avoids Thursday for somebody, also depending how it shakes out 8 wins could be good enough for a 5 seed for someone too... really strange.

I agree, and selfishly I hope so - time for the model to earn it's worth!

[Go4Valley]

At the top of conference at the middle and bottom.....its gonna be bunched up

I can see

1 seed 12-6
2 seed 11-7
3 seed 11-7
4 seed 10-8
5 seed 9-9
6 seed 9-9
7 seed 8-10
8 seed 7-11
9 seed 6-12
10 seed 6-12

I mean seriously would you be shocked with these standings?

[TheAsianSensation]

At first I thought this year might be the doppleganger of 2012, but Loyola isn't separating like Wichita/Creighton did that year. A giant blob of 5 teams finished 9-9, meaning Drake both tied for 3rd in the league and played on Thursday.

With no cellar dweller to pad everyone's win total, I'm guessing we get a 5-team logjam at 8-10 for 5th place.

NET is going to be a mess. Bradley has a higher NET than UNI. UNI's non-con SoS is in the top 10. Bradley is 323. I don't get NET.

[Snaggletooth]

.

NET is going to be a mess. Bradley has a higher NET than UNI. UNI's non-con SoS is in the top 10. Bradley is 323. I don't get NET.

UNI has a terrible road record that kills their NET. Even though UNI played a tougher schedule, they have the same amount of Q1/Q2 wins as Bradley.

Bradly has better Q3 record. UNI pretty much only beats Q4 teams.

One of the problems with RPI was it rewarded teams who played tough non-conference schedules but didn't penalize them if they lost them. NET rewards teams that play tough schedules and win. NET also rewards teams that win on the road.