Official 2019-20 MVCfans.com Prediction - 8th Place

[Blers]

I struggle with Evansville because while fans seem excited, I haven’t seen a ton of substance behind it (and maybe that’s my fault and I’ve just missed it). From my perspective, recently it seems to be a lot of "DEANDRE WILLIAMS IS AMAZING AND IF YOU DISAGREE YOU DON’T KNOW ANYTHING," which… cool. He probably is a stellar player, but there’s also reasonable questions surrounding the team (like any).

There’s questions about the center position… who plays behind Evan Kuhlman the first half of the season? And how will Kuhlman be able to hold up against tougher bigs come conference play like Da Silva/Prim, Childs, and Krutwig. What are the expectations Peace Ilegomah when he’s available? Yes he’s long with a 7’4” wingspan, but he was also a non-factor at Pitt (over his career he averaged about 1.5 fouls in 5 mpg).

Then there’s the question of who’s going to facilitate the offense… is the expectation on one of the freshman point guards to take over? Givance? KJ Riley? From the outside looking in it looks like a lot of shot makers but not a ton of shot creators. Maybe that helps with the run and gun nature of offense you want to run, but what happens when teams try and grind you out with long offensive possessions and your shots aren’t falling (UNI, Loyola, Bradley).

None of this is to say Evansville isn’t going to be a surprising team in the Valley, I just haven’t really heard an articulate reason as to why I should by the hype (other than Deandre Williams and to some extent Cunliffe). And I think there’s good reason for many to be hesitant before anyone has really seen it on the floor. We’re also still learning about who McCarty is as a coach. With more talent can come more ego, and more ego, more challenges. To be clear though, i'm cautiously optimistic and really hope Evansville good! It’d be great to see that program bounce back in a strong way. And I definitely think it’s possible, I’m really curious to see how they play.

[ACECARD]

I struggle with Evansville because while fans seem excited, I haven’t seen a ton of substance behind it (and maybe that’s my fault and I’ve just missed it). From my perspective, recently it seems to be a lot of "DEANDRE WILLIAMS IS AMAZING AND IF YOU DISAGREE YOU DON’T KNOW ANYTHING," which… cool. He probably is a stellar player, but there’s also reasonable questions surrounding the team (like any).

There’s questions about the center position… who plays behind Evan Kuhlman the first half of the season? And how will Kuhlman be able to hold up against tougher bigs come conference play like Da Silva/Prim, Childs, and Krutwig. What are the expectations Peace Ilegomah when he’s available? Yes he’s long with a 7’4” wingspan, but he was also a non-factor at Pitt (over his career he averaged about 1.5 fouls in 5 mpg).

Then there’s the question of who’s going to facilitate the offense… is the expectation on one of the freshman point guards to take over? Givance? KJ Riley? From the outside looking in it looks like a lot of shot makers but not a ton of shot creators. Maybe that helps with the run and gun nature of offense you want to run, but what happens when teams try and grind you out with long offensive possessions and your shots aren’t falling (UNI, Loyola, Bradley).

None of this is to say Evansville isn’t going to be a surprising team in the Valley, I just haven’t really heard an articulate reason as to why I should by the hype (other than Deandre Williams and to some extent Cunliffe). And I think there’s good reason for many to be hesitant before anyone has really seen it on the floor. We’re also still learning about who McCarty is as a coach. With more talent can come more ego, and more ego, more challenges. To be clear though, i'm cautiously optimistic and really hope Evansville good! It’d be great to see that program bounce back in a strong way. And I definitely think it’s possible, I’m really curious to see how they play.

Nobody is more curious to see how the Aces play than we are. Nobody has seen them play, an American team, so how the hell would we really know what to expect. I don't think any straight thinking person really thinks the Aces are going to challenge for a Conference championship this year, although I have seen a few who think they are. That of course is their opinion. Your concerns about the 5 position are also mine. Peace is strictly a project as far as I am concerned from an offensive point of view, but we hope that he will be able to rebound, and play some decent defense. Hopefully he won't foul out in 5 minutes. Williams, Cunliff, and Labinowicz, are far more athletic, and better at finishing shots, than we have had in the last 20 years. I'm picking the Aces 5th, but hope they will do better. If they don't, then so be it. Defense will probably be the key to this season, and will determine just how good the Aces will be. I said it at the beginning of all this discussion, and still believe that they will not be a "Thursday" team this year. We will see.


As far as the USI game is concerned, the exhibition, I think it will answer some questions. USI will be one of the better D2 teams in the nation this year. If we have to struggle to beat them, or even worse to lose, then we will certainly have to reassess what this year will hold. If we handle them like I think a good D1 team should, then I think you had better bring your "A" game when you play the Aces.

As far as asking what the Aces will do when their shots aren't falling, maybe you should ask what are Loyola, Mo. State, and Bradley going to do when their shots aren't falling. They may look like Loyola did against the Aces last year at the Ford Center.

[ACECARD]

I struggle with Evansville because while fans seem excited, I haven’t seen a ton of substance behind it (and maybe that’s my fault and I’ve just missed it). From my perspective, recently it seems to be a lot of "DEANDRE WILLIAMS IS AMAZING AND IF YOU DISAGREE YOU DON’T KNOW ANYTHING," which… cool. He probably is a stellar player, but there’s also reasonable questions surrounding the team (like any).

There’s questions about the center position… who plays behind Evan Kuhlman the first half of the season? And how will Kuhlman be able to hold up against tougher bigs come conference play like Da Silva/Prim, Childs, and Krutwig. What are the expectations Peace Ilegomah when he’s available? Yes he’s long with a 7’4” wingspan, but he was also a non-factor at Pitt (over his career he averaged about 1.5 fouls in 5 mpg).

Then there’s the question of who’s going to facilitate the offense… is the expectation on one of the freshman point guards to take over? Givance? KJ Riley? From the outside looking in it looks like a lot of shot makers but not a ton of shot creators. Maybe that helps with the run and gun nature of offense you want to run, but what happens when teams try and grind you out with long offensive possessions and your shots aren’t falling (UNI, Loyola, Bradley).

None of this is to say Evansville isn’t going to be a surprising team in the Valley, I just haven’t really heard an articulate reason as to why I should by the hype (other than Deandre Williams and to some extent Cunliffe). And I think there’s good reason for many to be hesitant before anyone has really seen it on the floor. We’re also still learning about who McCarty is as a coach. With more talent can come more ego, and more ego, more challenges. To be clear though, i'm cautiously optimistic and really hope Evansville good! It’d be great to see that program bounce back in a strong way. And I definitely think it’s possible, I’m really curious to see how they play.

Nobody is more curious to see how the Aces play than we are. Nobody has seen them play, an American team, so how the hell would we really know what to expect. I don't think any straight thinking person really thinks the Aces are going to challenge for a Conference championship this year, although I have seen a few who think they are. That of course is their opinion. Your concerns about the 5 position are also mine. Peace is strictly a project as far as I am concerned from an offensive point of view, but we hope that he will be able to rebound, and play some decent defense. Hopefully he won't foul out in 5 minutes. Williams, Cunliff, and Labinowicz, are far more athletic, and better at finishing shots, than we have had in the last 20 years. I'm picking the Aces 5th, but hope they will do better. If they don't, then so be it. Defense will probably be the key to this season, and will determine just how good the Aces will be. I said it at the beginning of all this discussion, and still believe that they will not be a "Thursday" team this year. We will see.


As far as the USI game is concerned, the exhibition, I think it will answer some questions. USI will be one of the better D2 teams in the nation this year. If we have to struggle to beat them, or even worse to lose, then we will certainly have to reassess what this year will hold. If we handle them like I think a good D1 team should, then I think you had better bring your "A" game when you play the Aces.

As far as asking what the Aces will do when their shots aren't falling, maybe you should ask what are Loyola, Mo. State, and Bradley going to do when their shots aren't falling. They may look like Loyola did against the Aces last year at the Ford Center.

[siudawgs]

I struggle with Evansville because while fans seem excited, I haven’t seen a ton of substance behind it (and maybe that’s my fault and I’ve just missed it). From my perspective, recently it seems to be a lot of "DEANDRE WILLIAMS IS AMAZING AND IF YOU DISAGREE YOU DON’T KNOW ANYTHING," which… cool. He probably is a stellar player, but there’s also reasonable questions surrounding the team (like any).

There’s questions about the center position… who plays behind Evan Kuhlman the first half of the season? And how will Kuhlman be able to hold up against tougher bigs come conference play like Da Silva/Prim, Childs, and Krutwig. What are the expectations Peace Ilegomah when he’s available? Yes he’s long with a 7’4” wingspan, but he was also a non-factor at Pitt (over his career he averaged about 1.5 fouls in 5 mpg).

Then there’s the question of who’s going to facilitate the offense… is the expectation on one of the freshman point guards to take over? Givance? KJ Riley? From the outside looking in it looks like a lot of shot makers but not a ton of shot creators. Maybe that helps with the run and gun nature of offense you want to run, but what happens when teams try and grind you out with long offensive possessions and your shots aren’t falling (UNI, Loyola, Bradley).

None of this is to say Evansville isn’t going to be a surprising team in the Valley, I just haven’t really heard an articulate reason as to why I should by the hype (other than Deandre Williams and to some extent Cunliffe). And I think there’s good reason for many to be hesitant before anyone has really seen it on the floor. We’re also still learning about who McCarty is as a coach. With more talent can come more ego, and more ego, more challenges. To be clear though, i'm cautiously optimistic and really hope Evansville good! It’d be great to see that program bounce back in a strong way. And I definitely think it’s possible, I’m really curious to see how they play.

Nobody is more curious to see how the Aces play than we are. Nobody has seen them play, an American team, so how the hell would we really know what to expect. I don't think any straight thinking person really thinks the Aces are going to challenge for a Conference championship this year, although I have seen a few who think they are. That of course is their opinion. Your concerns about the 5 position are also mine. Peace is strictly a project as far as I am concerned from an offensive point of view, but we hope that he will be able to rebound, and play some decent defense. Hopefully he won't foul out in 5 minutes. Williams, Cunliff, and Labinowicz, are far more athletic, and better at finishing shots, than we have had in the last 20 years. I'm picking the Aces 5th, but hope they will do better. If they don't, then so be it. Defense will probably be the key to this season, and will determine just how good the Aces will be. I said it at the beginning of all this discussion, and still believe that they will not be a "Thursday" team this year. We will see.


As far as the USI game is concerned, the exhibition, I think it will answer some questions. USI will be one of the better D2 teams in the nation this year. If we have to struggle to beat them, or even worse to lose, then we will certainly have to reassess what this year will hold. If we handle them like I think a good D1 team should, then I think you had better bring your "A" game when you play the Aces.

As far as asking what the Aces will do when their shots aren't falling, maybe you should ask what are Loyola, Mo. State, and Bradley going to do when their shots aren't falling. They may look like Loyola did against the Aces last year at the Ford Center.

Re: Evansville's interior depth, I'm wondering if Dixon (a 6-9 JUCO) falling through will end up presenting a significant challenge.
https://www.courierpress.com/story/spor ... 073539001/

[Blers]

As far as asking what the Aces will do when their shots aren't falling, maybe you should ask what are Loyola, Mo. State, and Bradley going to do when their shots aren't falling. They may look like Loyola did against the Aces last year at the Ford Center.

Appreciate the answers, I know no one knows, but no ones more knowledgeable about their teams than the fans. The aggressiveness reads to me like some people are going a bit overboard, but if the general consensus is 5th I think that changes things a bit. I was mainly wondering if there was something MVC fans in general were missing, a player who's been discounted.

As for the quote above, it doesn't really answer the question. Like i get you try and try to bury a team with a flurry of shots to speed them up. I just don't think that's really been consistently done successfully in this league with the way teams play defense. It could totally happen, just hasn't yet. So my question then becomes (like you mentioned) do they have the defensive grit.

Teams adjusted to Evansville fairly quickly... after starting 3-2 in conference including wins against Drake, Loyola, and Missouri State (plus an OT loss to ISUb), they went 0-12 the rest of the way against teams not named Valpo. When they won, they usually won big, but struggled in most games with single digit differentials. Granted that could be blamed on a lack of talent. It'll be interesting to see what adjustments McCarty makes as the season progresses.

[ACECARD]

As far as asking what the Aces will do when their shots aren't falling, maybe you should ask what are Loyola, Mo. State, and Bradley going to do when their shots aren't falling. They may look like Loyola did against the Aces last year at the Ford Center.

Appreciate the answers, I know no one knows, but no ones more knowledgeable about their teams than the fans. The aggressiveness reads to me like some people are going a bit overboard, but if the general consensus is 5th I think that changes things a bit. I was mainly wondering if there was something MVC fans in general were missing, a player who's been discounted.

As for the quote above, it doesn't really answer the question. Like i get you try and try to bury a team with a flurry of shots to speed them up. I just don't think that's really been consistently done successfully in this league with the way teams play defense. It could totally happen, just hasn't yet. So my question then becomes (like you mentioned) do they have the defensive grit.

Teams adjusted to Evansville fairly quickly... after starting 3-2 in conference including wins against Drake, Loyola, and Missouri State (plus an OT loss to ISUb), they went 0-12 the rest of the way against teams not named Valpo. When they won, they usually won big, but struggled in most games with single digit differentials. Granted that could be blamed on a lack of talent. It'll be interesting to see what adjustments McCarty makes as the season progresses.

Well, I see that Walter wants 88-90 possessions per game this year. Nobody in the conference got close to that number last year. In order to get that many possessions you are going to have to get more offensive rebounds than they got last year, and that certainly was not a strong part of the Aces game last year. I am very skeptical that they will be able to pull that off. That, in my opinion, will be the biggest adjustment to the Aces game that Walter will have to give the most attention too. Now, if their increase in offensive consistency can make up for the lesser amount of possessions that Walter wants, that will be a big question mark, and will require the most adjustment. It's going to be an interesting season for a lot of teams, and certainly the Aces will have to earn everything that they get. I don't expect it to be easy.

[BCPanther]

88-90 possessions is impossible in the college game. FIU led the country last year at 77.6 and there were only 70 teams that averaged over 70.

Never mind the fact that you have 6 games with Loyola (347th, 62.7), UNI (327th, 64.4) and Bradley (293rd, 65.3).

Drake will run with you. Missouri State says they will but when actual games were played in the league Dana figured out that playing slow made his team a whole lot better.

[Tom Servo]

I struggle with Evansville because while fans seem excited, I haven’t seen a ton of substance behind it (and maybe that’s my fault and I’ve just missed it). From my perspective, recently it seems to be a lot of "DEANDRE WILLIAMS IS AMAZING AND IF YOU DISAGREE YOU DON’T KNOW ANYTHING," which… cool. He probably is a stellar player, but there’s also reasonable questions surrounding the team (like any).

There’s questions about the center position… who plays behind Evan Kuhlman the first half of the season? And how will Kuhlman be able to hold up against tougher bigs come conference play like Da Silva/Prim, Childs, and Krutwig. What are the expectations Peace Ilegomah when he’s available? Yes he’s long with a 7’4” wingspan, but he was also a non-factor at Pitt (over his career he averaged about 1.5 fouls in 5 mpg).

Then there’s the question of who’s going to facilitate the offense… is the expectation on one of the freshman point guards to take over? Givance? KJ Riley? From the outside looking in it looks like a lot of shot makers but not a ton of shot creators. Maybe that helps with the run and gun nature of offense you want to run, but what happens when teams try and grind you out with long offensive possessions and your shots aren’t falling (UNI, Loyola, Bradley).

None of this is to say Evansville isn’t going to be a surprising team in the Valley, I just haven’t really heard an articulate reason as to why I should by the hype (other than Deandre Williams and to some extent Cunliffe). And I think there’s good reason for many to be hesitant before anyone has really seen it on the floor. We’re also still learning about who McCarty is as a coach. With more talent can come more ego, and more ego, more challenges. To be clear though, i'm cautiously optimistic and really hope Evansville good! It’d be great to see that program bounce back in a strong way. And I definitely think it’s possible, I’m really curious to see how they play.

I totally understand your points and I think they are legit questions.

I'm going to take a little different stance - to me the key isn't Williams and it isn't Cunliffe it's Givance and John Hall. Williams should be good, and Cunliffe should be as well, but if Hall and Givance don't take the next step it isn't going to matter. PG play doomed Evansville in a lot of games last year. As you mentioned, the Aces struggled in tight games - and I blame that fully on poor PG play and a lack of shot making talent. The shot making talent should be improved this year, but if Givance doesn't step up as the PG I see those same problems coming back to haunt us. Riley scored a lot last year and he got to the foul line, but he also really struggled to initiate the offense at times and was a very poor shooter. Givance is a shot creator and if he steps up it will make this team much, much better. He showed a lot of promise last year with his ball handling ability and court vision. He' got to be the PG and Riley needs to be off the ball unless Riley did a complete 180 from last year.

Also Hall was a major player for over half the year last year - putting up close to 13 and 8 and then completely disappeared in Feb. That's part of what led to the drop off down the stretch. He's got to at least get back his rebounding form from last year. If he doesn't it's going to really put a lot of pressure on Williams.

I see Peace as a defense only guy. His offensive game is non-existent, but he can defend from what I've heard.

And you are also correct, McCarty is still an unknown. Can't really judge him on last year, but now we will see what he can do. The pressure is on. I would imagine he will try to go 10 deep from what he has said, which will be something new for the Aces who usually only went about 7 deep under Simmons. If guys step up, it will really help us once we get to Late January and into Feb.

I think he's just throwing out numbers on the possessions thing. I know he wants to run but I agree 88-90 possessions isn't happening in this league.

It should be an interesting season.

[ahunte1]

Slightly off topic, but an offensive rebound doesn't create a new possession, at least in terms of calculating efficiency, right?

I could see why a coach would count it that way if you want to call them "extra possessions" or whatever.

[ACECARD]

Slightly off topic, but an offensive rebound doesn't create a new possession, at least in terms of calculating efficiency, right?

I could see why a coach would count it that way if you want to call them "extra possessions" or whatever.

It was my understanding that the Aces were counting offensive rebounds as "extra possessions", and that's why I mentioned them in a previous post. If that's the way Walter wants to count them, then so be it. It looks like we would have to get 10-15 offensive rebounds to get anywhere the number that Walter us talking about, and I think that will be a miracle for that to happen.