New and not so too-early predictions

[hot nuts]

It would be dumb not to pick UNI first, but I suspect they won't run away from the field...to much talent all over The Valley. After them it's a real crap shoot. Tight games that could fall either way will be the rule not the exception. The only sure thing is that the refs will be abused on fan message boards after losses...but what's new?

[Kyle@MOState]

So far UNI is the clear leader of the pack going in to the conference slate.... I have also seen UNI year after year stumble when it comes to conference play. We all thought they were set up for an At Large bid the year when they took down UNC at home. The wheels came off after non-con. The good news for Coach Jake is that the league is full of relatively new coaches, that may have not figured his schemes quite yet. For now, they are the team to beat. I would just say UNI is number 1, jumbled mess 2-9, and SIU at 10, but there is no fun in that.

1. UNI
2. Evansville (Some ugly losses, but everyone has those outside of UNI, and they have the best win)
3. Bradley (Best win outside of Evansville and UNI)
4. Missouri State (You gotta hope the teamwork catches up with the talent)
5. Drake (Less bad losses, could see them finishing higher
6. Loyola (I just can't see them dropping any lower)
7. Valpo (Retooling and not rebuilding, looked impressive at times)
8. Indiana State (guard play to climb in to the upper echelon)
9. Ill State (Someone had to be 9, but had some good performances even in losses)
10. SIU (Rebuilding with some nice pieces and good coach)

[VUGrad1314]

I think it's quite obvious that UNI is our best hope for success in March. I'm rooting for them to do well. Maybe they might have the resume to log an at large bid if they can avoid pitfalls throughout the year.

[just ducky]

I have now had the opportunity to watch every Valley team multiple times and have realized that much of my pre season thinking was based on total ignorance.

I've got it all figured out now!

Northern Iowa 12-6
Loyola, MSU, Drake, Bradley, Valpo, Evansville, ISU-blue and red 9-9
SIU 6-12

I'm really looking forward to sorting through the tiebreakers!

[PantherSigEp]

I really hope these predictions are also wrong. If UNI loses more than 3 in conference games (that may even be too many) then we'll be a one bid league again. Anything worse than 15-3 is plenty ammo for the committee to salivate over a 7-11 P5 team

[just ducky]

I really hope these predictions are also wrong. If UNI loses more than 3 in conference games (that may even be too many) then we'll be a one bid league again. Anything worse than 15-3 is plenty ammo for the committee to salivate over a 7-11 P5 team

It's early to speculate but that isn't going to stop me. I'd guess that UNI would be likely in with a 14-4 record and a championship game loss if their losses were top half and on the road.

I personally think that some of the also rans are much better than their OOC records so UNI getting to 14-4 or better will be a real project.

Yes, I know Loyola would have been out with 3 Valley losses but they got drubbed at Boise St and also lost at Milwaukee. Right now the UNI OOC results are looking better than Loyola had

[Drakey]

I really hope these predictions are also wrong. If UNI loses more than 3 in conference games (that may even be too many) then we'll be a one bid league again. Anything worse than 15-3 is plenty ammo for the committee to salivate over a 7-11 P5 team

Sadly you are probably right. UNI has one loss to a team with an RPI of 1 and a NET of 10. 14-4 should be a guarantee. UNI usually plays better than they actually are in the Valley tournament, so I'm guessing that they will win it since they actually appear to be better than anybody else this year, so we will still be a one bid league.

[BCPanther]

Here goes nothing--

1--UNI (17-1)-Clearly the class of the league, we always wondered what would happen if a Ben Jacobson team ever learned to play offense and here we are. Homer for sure, but UNI is a legit Top 25 team. AJ Green is going to be 3 time Player of the Year.

2--Drake (12-6)-Only team, other than UNI, to beat the teams they were supposed to beat. Didn't look great against Cincy or Dayton but didn't lay a total egg anywhere.

3--Indiana State (11-7)-Played a really good Dayton team tough and have been good since they figured it out around Thanksgiving.

4--Loyola (10-8)-Inconsistent and seem to be playing slow for playing slow's sake, defensive intensity is way down.

5--Bradley (10-8)--The Childs injury is a killer and certainly doesn't help to address offensive inconsistency. Need Darrell Brown to find the Darrell Brown that existed in February of last year.

6--Missouri State (8-10)--They haven't beaten anybody good and have some truly head scratching losses. Dana also has to prove he can get it done on the bench, he hasn't shown that yet.

7--Valpo (8-10)--One man shows don't tend to work very well in this league but I'll give them credit; they're much better than I thought they'd be.

8--Evansville (6-12)--The Kentucky game says a lot more about Kentucky than it does UE. Williams is phenomenal but, like Valpo, one man shows struggle here.

9--Illinois State (5-13)--I don't hate the pieces but something is off. When they've been beaten they haven't been competitive and that's worrisome in Nov/Dec.

10--Southern Illinois (3-15)--They hired the right guy. He's got a team with no talent playing hard. They'll be back to the top half within 3 years.

[musiccitybulldog]

I agree BC, my only change would be to raise Evansville higher. I think McCarty knows how to get over the line at the end of games and that will help in Valley close ones.

[BEARZ77]

Here goes nothing--

1--UNI (17-1)-Clearly the class of the league, we always wondered what would happen if a Ben Jacobson team ever learned to play offense and here we are. Homer for sure, but UNI is a legit Top 25 team. AJ Green is going to be 3 time Player of the Year.

2--Drake (12-6)-Only team, other than UNI, to beat the teams they were supposed to beat. Didn't look great against Cincy or Dayton but didn't lay a total egg anywhere.

3--Indiana State (11-7)-Played a really good Dayton team tough and have been good since they figured it out around Thanksgiving.

4--Loyola (10-8)-Inconsistent and seem to be playing slow for playing slow's sake, defensive intensity is way down.

5--Bradley (10-8)--The Childs injury is a killer and certainly doesn't help to address offensive inconsistency. Need Darrell Brown to find the Darrell Brown that existed in February of last year.

6--Missouri State (8-10)--They haven't beaten anybody good and have some truly head scratching losses. Dana also has to prove he can get it done on the bench, he hasn't shown that yet.

7--Valpo (8-10)--One man shows don't tend to work very well in this league but I'll give them credit; they're much better than I thought they'd be.

8--Evansville (6-12)--The Kentucky game says a lot more about Kentucky than it does UE. Williams is phenomenal but, like Valpo, one man shows struggle here.

9--Illinois State (5-13)--I don't hate the pieces but something is off. When they've been beaten they haven't been competitive and that's worrisome in Nov/Dec.

10--Southern Illinois (3-15)--They hired the right guy. He's got a team with no talent playing hard. They'll be back to the top half within 3 years.

You're pretty much in line with where I'm at right now except I see Loyola a little higher and MSU a bit lower. The honeymoon period with Ford is pretty much over and there is quite a bit of concern in Springfield. While there's been a bit of bad luck with Ridder's injury, Bonner not sticking, and Prim basically only able to play games w/o much availability to practice, questions about Ford's poor offensive and defensive systems and roster construction are hot topics. While there is talent it appears to be a bad mix with too many one dimensional guys who aren't all that interested in filling necessary roles. He's been slow to integrate Mosley , probably the most talented player, and has allowed several players to continue to play key roles despite repeated poor play.

For my part, I said all along we weren't ready to challenge for the title yet this year, so while I share many of the concerns others have, I'm patient and hope Ford figures it out as the year goes along and still think we
can be in position going into next year to be on schedule. Mosley and Prim can both be elite Valley players , but Dana has to find a better on court mix to surround them with moving forward. Mosley has gone for double figures in two straight games off the bench and is simply one of the most efficient scorers I've seen come along for the Bears . He's a 60% 50% 80% type shooter and can score at every spot on the court w/o having to be a high volume shot taker. Like most freshmen he can have defensive issues at times, but hardly is a major liability there as a 6'6 sg/sf .

But right now I can't see the Bears any better than .500 this year, and then it will be a very important off season for Ford and the program. We'll have talent no matter what, but Ford's grab bag approach hasn't yielded a very cohesive unit and his overall X/O acumen is up for debate.