The road to 2 NCAA bids

[mvfcfan]

Sorry not sorry.

Sincerely,
A Sycamore fan

[VUGrad1314]

The great thing about this conference is that every team shows flashes of being the kind of team that can beat anyone and everyone they play against.

The frustrating thing about this conference is that every team shows FLASHES of being the kind of team that can beat anyone and everyone they play against.

Every team in the MVC (but especially Valpo since we are new and represent a downgrade from the team we replaced that we have not even come close to living up to) needs to work on consistency finishing and maximizing opportunities if we're going to become a perennial multibid league again.

[BCPanther]

We're overreacting.

This game was basically a pick em by all metrics and UNI only dropped one spot in KenPom. Still in better shape than Belmont was last year. The NET won't drop by more than one or two places. If UNI gets to Sunday, the conversation still exists.

I know we instantly go into 'mid-major' doom and gloom but this isn't the crushing loss that we internally make it.

Let's roll!

[VUGrad1314]

Is UNI really in a better position than Belmont in 2019? I really don't know if that's true...


2019 Belmont:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/schedule/Belmont

2020 UNI:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/ ... thern-Iowa

UNI has a better NET rating than Belmont did but...

Belmont had 3 Q1 wins UNI has 1. As well as a second win over UCLA that is impressive to the Selection Committee based solely on the brand value of UCLA. South Carolina doesn't have that same cache and the UCLA win was a road win while South Carolina was a neutral site.

Belmont got lucky in that Lipscomb and Murray State had such amazing years and gave them unexpected strong opportunities of which they took advantage. UNI's resume had some warts in the sense that some of the teams they played weren't as good as expected and with each loss in a Q2 opportunity that resume gets weaker.

UNI NEEDS TO WIN OUT and get the ship righted to have ANY hope and even then that hope appears thin with the competition from other mids like Rhode Island VCU ETSU Richmond and Utah State.

[uniguy]

I like his optimism but I think we are done. If we win our next five (big if the way we are playing) and lose on Sunday we'll have six losses. That may put us in the convo, but it would be at best a coin toss at that point. That is the absolute best case scenario.

Might not hurt the NET too much, but we simply can't have that many losses, and losses to teams like SIU and Ill St (I know SIU is a good team.....but the computers don't see it that way). I think we are done.

If we don't win these home games coming up the NIT might even become a question.

[MVCfans]

For the MVC to feel confident that we will receive two tournament bids:
1 - UNI needs to win final 4 regular season games (@ ISUb, SIU, UE, @DU)
2 - UNI cannot lose in the first round of the MVC tournament
3 - Loyola (or maybe Bradley) need to beat UNI in the Arch Madness final

It is certainly possible that either item 1 or 2 might not occur and UNI can still overcome it, although it would be very tenuous. It would probably would help if Colorado finished their season strong as that looks like UNI's signature win.

Well I definitely feel less confident now, but it is a very weak bubble. Panthers cannot afford any more slip ups.

[stable genius]

Way I see it, UNI put all their chips into the table to chase the at large bid. Which was absolutely the right call. Leaving starters in late in games to bolster their NET. But the probability odds were never really on their side (except briefly, before the Loyola OT loss), and what they’re left with is a team that #341 in bench minutes played that appears to be reeling down the stretch. Winning 3 times in 3 days will be a tough task for this group.

This is a sad story for fans of mid major basketball fans and a reminder of how tough it is out there. The power 5 teams have the luxury of removing all of these tricky @Indy State type games but we don't. They may seem insignificant on their own but when you have to play 15 of them your chances of losing a couple add up and the committee will hammer you for it, even though it's likely to happen.

I don’t think at large is necessarily gone, but it very well may be, and it’s at least improbable to a point where I’m not going to spend any more time worrying about it.

[BCPanther]

Way I see it, UNI put all their chips into the table to chase the at large bid. Which was absolutely the right call. Leaving starters in late in games to bolster their NET. But the probability odds were never really on their side (except briefly, before the Loyola OT loss), and what they’re left with is a team that #341 in bench minutes played that appears to be reeling down the stretch. Winning 3 times in 3 days will be a tough task for this group.

This is a sad story for fans of mid major basketball fans and a reminder of how tough it is out there. The power 5 teams have the luxury of removing all of these tricky @Indy State type games but we don't. They may seem insignificant on their own but when you have to play 15 of them your chances of losing a couple add up and the committee will hammer you for it, even though it's likely to happen.

I don’t think at large is necessarily gone, but it very well may be, and it’s at least improbable to a point where I’m not going to spend any more time worrying about it.

This is a very good post.

Couple all that with knowing in the back of your head that you can not afford more than 4 or 5 total losses and its really starts to take a toll.

Hopefully coming home to an energetic, sold out building for Senior Day on Sunday is the shot in the arm that we need right now. Get these next two and see what happens in Des Moines and St Louis. Hopefully, if we don't win the tournament, we're at least in the middle of the conversation on Selection Sunday.

There are worse places to be than, at worst, a sure fire NIT home team at this point in the year when the world is stacked against leagues like ours.

[stable genius]

I've had a lot of meatheads over the years telling telling me about how their P5 team would have run the table in the MVC. These people just don't understand statistics and probably, and unfortunately neither do the ADs (who are not at all trained or versed in data science) who sit on the committee.

UNI is low 40s in kenpom, for fun let's look at how some of these similar B10 teams did this year away from home against MVC-tyoe teams. I'll define that as teams that are mid majors or P5 teams kenpom rated 75 or higher.

#30 Wisconsin. 1-3.
Wins: @Nebraska
Loses: (N) St Mary's, (N) New Mexico State, (N) Richmond

#31 Rutgers. 2-2.
Wins: @Neb, @ NWern
Loses: (N) St Bonnaventure, @Pitt

#33 Minnesota. 0-1
Wins:
Loses: @Utah

#41 Indiana 1-0
Wins: @Nebraska
Loses:

Power 5 teams have very few opportunities for these bad loses. When they find themselves in these games, they lose them at the same rate as similarly rated mid majors. I haven't actually seen or done the research to confirm that but I'd be very surprised if it's not true.

UNI was 8-5 on the road, 6-4 against MVC type teams.

[Red]

This is a sad story for fans of mid major basketball fans and a reminder of how tough it is out there. The power 5 teams have the luxury of removing all of these tricky @Indy State type games but we don't. They may seem insignificant on their own but when you have to play 15 of them your chances of losing a couple add up and the committee will hammer you for it, even though it's likely to happen.

This is right on and explains why schools like Creighton and Wichita State bolted when they had the chance.