Top 4

[ValleyFAN]

At some point the Bears have to play with more consistency to make a run. We just got Mayo back and he had an impact in the Drake game, and we hope to get Graham back in the next week. He was just coming on after missing most of the early season with a different injury than the one limiting him now. He gives the Bears another 6'6 wing type that helps make their perimeter defense tough, and was the leading 3 point shooter on the team in his brief earlier stints. But again, can the Bears get some consistency , but lots of time to still work towards that.

I agree with you in that it's tough for me to see the Bears being consistent enough to win 4 games in 4 days. I can certainly see 3 games in 3 days based upon matchups, but even then it's a stretch. Ford teams just dont have a great history in St Louis.

[BCPanther]

I wouldn't be scared by the 5, 6 or 7 at all. You're going to get a team that you're clearly better than and you get to shake off the 'big building jitters' while playing a 'cold' team the next day. It's also not like the previous format where you had a team that had to play at 6:00 on Thursday turn around and play at noon Friday, you get a full 22ish hours between games to get off your feet.

I feel like I'm pretty confident in how 8-12 shake out (Murray, Illinois State, Valpo, UIC, Evansville) but you throw the other 7 in any order and I wouldn't be at all shocked. We're all bad but at least it makes it kind of fun.

[siudawgs]

I wouldn't be scared by the 5, 6 or 7 at all. You're going to get a team that you're clearly better than and you get to shake off the 'big building jitters' while playing a 'cold' team the next day. It's also not like the previous format where you had a team that had to play at 6:00 on Thursday turn around and play at noon Friday, you get a full 22ish hours between games to get off your feet.

I feel like I'm pretty confident in how 8-12 shake out (Murray, Illinois State, Valpo, UIC, Evansville) but you throw the other 7 in any order and I wouldn't be at all shocked. We're all bad but at least it makes it kind of fun.

I think the challenge with not having a bye isn't so much on Friday (you make some good points) but more with trying to win the whole tournament, as winning four games in four days is no joke. Shooting and transition defense legs on Saturday/Sunday could be a real issue, depending on the team's depth, conditioning, etc.

[keane1]

I'm stealing this from the pjstarforums (Bradley) board, but it has good information about what teams have left as far as home and away against the other top 8 teams:

Southern Illinois Salukis 7-2 --- 7 games left vs top 8 (4H,3A)
Belmont Bruins 7-2 --- 7 games left vs top 8 (2H,5A)

Bradley Braves 6-3 --- 7 games left vs top 8 (5H,2A)
Missouri State Bears 6-3 --- 8 games left vs top 8 (4H,4A)
Indiana State Sycamores 6-3 --- 7 games left vs top 8 (3H,4A)
Northern Iowa Panthers 6-3 --- 8 games left vs top 8 (4H,4A)

Drake Bulldogs 5-4 --- 8 games left vs top 8 (4H,4A)
Murray State Racers 5-4 ---- 8 games left vs top 8 (4H,4A)

Based on this information, I think Bradley and SIU are in great shape for a top 4 finish. Although Belmont has the advantage right now, they have a lot of road games against the top 8 left, so I would not put them in the top 4 right now. I honestly don't know who I would put as my other two right now. And looking at Hackman's chart, the 3 and 4 spots are wide open.

Thanks for posting this, great info.

Belmont (Really tough February ahead)
Bradley (how can you not be a top 4 lock with that schedule)
Drake (Road record not good, so gonna have to win a few)
INST (Early schedule was a lot easier than what's to come)
MSU (When this team gets healthy and some consistency, could be interesting)
MUR (Not sure they have the horses to get there)
SIU (better protect the home court looking at the away games)
UNI (And I thought Belmont's Feb schedule was tough DU x2, BU, BEL, INST, @MSU, @SIU)

With that said, in alphabetical order I'm going with Belmont, Bradley, Drake, MSU.

[BruinGrad]

I hope I am wrong, but I think the Bruins have too tough of a schedule and rely on too many freshmen to last in the top 4. I see them in 5th. With that said, I would go with Drake, Bradley, SIU, and Indiana State.

[Salukimadness86]

Salukis take another step towards finishing in the top 4 with a big road win over Mo State 61-57. A true team effort in so many ways. Team is starting to gel in all facets. Fun times for SIU fans.

[keane1]

Salukis take another step towards finishing in the top 4 with a big road win over Mo State 61-57. A true team effort in so many ways. Team is starting to gel in all facets. Fun times for SIU fans.

Congrats on the win. I think MSU had “Drake Win Hanogver” and did not look like the same team. Injuries and inconsistent play are really hampering us.

[BCPanther]

Indiana State is showing us who they were all along.

[DUBulldog]

Salukis take another step towards finishing in the top 4 with a big road win over Mo State 61-57. A true team effort in so many ways. Team is starting to gel in all facets. Fun times for SIU fans.

Congrats on the win. I think MSU had “Drake Win Hanogver” and did not look like the same team. Injuries and inconsistent play are really hampering us.

After MSU players taunted the Drake fans in Des Moines after the game, happy to see this result for them.

[sivert]

I certainly like all the UNI inclusions, but I'm afraid we lose most tie-breakers. So we NEED 13 or 14 wins to get top 4. Will be tough. Need 7 or 8 more wins.

W-1 A Illinois Chicago
W-2 H Valparaiso
?? A Indiana St.
?? A Drake
W-3 H Bradley
W-4 A Evansville
W-5 H Indiana St.
W-6 H Drake
?? A Missouri St.
?? A Southern Illinois
W-7 H Belmont

The 8th is going to be tough to come by. Even the 7 will be tough. Need Hackman to put up the charts...

I would assume your 5,6,7 wins you have are questionable at best. UNI is tough at home, but those are all tough games you’re including there.

Yes. And I actually called them “tough.”

https://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Northern+Iowa

UNI has 5 remaining games in which UNI is expected to win or lose by less than 3 points.