Bracketology 2012-2013

[MVCfans]

From ESPN:

WINNERS:
Creighton: For months, Creighton had no place in the bubble conversation. It was assumed, and not unfairly so, that the Bluejays and star forward Doug McDermott would rather effortlessly coast through Missouri Valley Conference play, maybe suffer an upset or two, and not have to worry much or at all about locking up an at-large bid in case Arch Madness proves to be exactly that.

And then things came apart. Creighton dropped a game at Drake. McDermott's scoring dried up in a hard fall at Indiana State, which was followed by a close home loss to Illinois State and a 61-54 upset at Northern Iowa. The Bluejays barely got past Evansville -- a fourth straight loss would have started a major panic -- and last Saturday's trip to Moraga, Calif., for a BracketBusters matchup with Saint Mary's didn't go so well, either. All of a sudden, Creighton, a lock in our Bubble Watch since the month-old first edition, was at semi-serious risk of missing the NCAA tournament.

Its fans can breathe easier now. McDermott's 15-of-18 shooting, 41-point masterpiece led the Bluejays to a 91-79 win over Wichita State -- another surefire tournament team in its own right -- Saturday afternoon. If there was any doubt in the selection committee's mind, having your All-American reclaim his status with a Bill Walton-esque shooting performance over the best competition your league has to offer should just about shore everything up. Finally.

LOSERS:
Indiana State: Ah, Sycamores. You thrilled us with your win over Miami at the Diamond Head Classic; you dazzled us with victories at Wichita State and against Creighton. Unfortunately, you've now lost five of your past six, including Saturday's loss at Evansville (RPI: 100) and defeats to Missouri State (RPI: 212), Bradley (RPI: 171) and Drake (RPI: 131). Failing a deep run in Arch Madness, the dream appears to be over.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... and-losers

[TheAsianSensation]

It's meaningless, but it warrants mentioning that the Mountain West is now showing with the #1 CRPI in the country.

[Deanthonybowdenfan]

I like the fact that Creighton is playing well again, but I don't like what it looks like it will lead us to in the Dance. Right now we are an 8 or 9 seed and that leaves us with a game against a 1 seed if we win in the first round. If we lose our first game in St. Louis, or if we win the whole tournament we are probably in the 7/10 seed game either way (not sure a 7 seed is better than being a 10) And this would leave us playing a 2 seed in the second round if we won. I would rather be a 6 or an 11 seed, as opposed to a 7-10 seed. I guess if we won the whole MVC tournament we might have a chance at a 6 seed idk.

[GoShockers89]

I like the fact that Creighton is playing well again, but I don't like what it looks like it will lead us to in the Dance. Right now we are an 8 or 9 seed and that leaves us with a game against a 1 seed if we win in the first round. If we lose our first game in St. Louis, or if we win the whole tournament we are probably in the 7/10 seed game either way (not sure a 7 seed is better than being a 10) And this would leave us playing a 2 seed in the second round if we won. I would rather be a 6 or an 11 seed, as opposed to a 7-10 seed. I guess if we won the whole MVC tournament we might have a chance at a 6 seed idk.

I see you guys as a 6 or 7 if you win in St. Louis, with an outside shot at a 7 if you lose to WSU in the finals.

[Jays26]

I like the fact that Creighton is playing well again, but I don't like what it looks like it will lead us to in the Dance. Right now we are an 8 or 9 seed and that leaves us with a game against a 1 seed if we win in the first round. If we lose our first game in St. Louis, or if we win the whole tournament we are probably in the 7/10 seed game either way (not sure a 7 seed is better than being a 10) And this would leave us playing a 2 seed in the second round if we won. I would rather be a 6 or an 11 seed, as opposed to a 7-10 seed. I guess if we won the whole MVC tournament we might have a chance at a 6 seed idk.

I see you guys as a 6 or 7 if you win in St. Louis, with an outside shot at a 7 if you lose to WSU in the finals.

I sure hope you would be right but just not sure we could jump that high if we happen to win in the Lou.

[WestOmahaBluejay]

I like the fact that Creighton is playing well again, but I don't like what it looks like it will lead us to in the Dance. Right now we are an 8 or 9 seed and that leaves us with a game against a 1 seed if we win in the first round. If we lose our first game in St. Louis, or if we win the whole tournament we are probably in the 7/10 seed game either way (not sure a 7 seed is better than being a 10) And this would leave us playing a 2 seed in the second round if we won. I would rather be a 6 or an 11 seed, as opposed to a 7-10 seed. I guess if we won the whole MVC tournament we might have a chance at a 6 seed idk.

I see you guys as a 6 or 7 if you win in St. Louis, with an outside shot at a 7 if you lose to WSU in the finals.

I sure hope you would be right but just not sure we could jump that high if we happen to win in the Lou.

I share your sentiment Jays26 - after the Jays were pegged an 8 seed last year (and had a better record to boot), I don't have much faith that the Jays will get anything higher than a 7 or 8 this year, even if they win the MVC tourney. The season ending shellacking last year at home by the Shockers, and not facing them in the MVC final I considered were the two biggest reasons CU got shafted by the committee last year.

This year CU did themselves a big favor by beating WSU in the last game, and could help themselves more if they win all 3 games in STL... but I still see a 7 seed being the MAX, especially with some losses that will be considered "bad losses" by the committee (i.e. Drake, getting blown out at Indiana State, losing at home to Illinois State). If CU stumbles against BU/Drake in the Quarterfinals - I see CU being a 10 seed, if they lose in the Semis a 9-10 seed, and if they lose in the Finals, a solid 9 seed. Win it all and CU is looking at the 7-8 seed, most likely the 7 seed if they happen to meet the Shockers in the finals... anyone else and CU will get an 8 seed at best.

Still a lot of basketball to be played, and lots of things could happen - and I wouldn't be surprised if CU or WSU got beat in the Quarterfinals - there is so much parity in this league and if CU or WSU don't show up with their A-game, they will be sent home early.

[Deanthonybowdenfan]

There is no benefit at all to being a 7 seed versus being a 10 seed IMO, you play a slightly worse team, but you also don't have the mental edge that comes with being the underdog. This tournament in St. Louis is big for us, we need to win it to at least avoid the 8/9 seed. Or lose the first round and get a 10, but Id much rather play well and win the thing. Either way, the NCAA is about match ups and there doesn't seem to be any un-beatable teams this year, so even if we do have to go up against one of the top 4 teams we wont be hopeless. We will just have to play like we did against Wichita, minus the turnovers, and put up 90 points cause against an Indiana or Miami we will have a tough time holding them anything below 80 or even 90.

[TheAsianSensation]

Let's have fun with S-Curves.

The 1 line
Indiana (25-4)
Kansas (25-4)
Gonzaga (28-2)
Duke (25-4)

The 2 line
Georgetown (23-4)
Michigan (23-5)
New Mexico (25-4)
Miami (23-5)

The 3 line
Michigan St (21-7)
Louisville (24-5)
Florida (23-5)
Kansas St (23-5)

The 4 line
Arizona (23-6)
Marquette (21-7)
Syracuse (22-7)
Wisconsin (20-9)

The 5 line
UNLV (21-7)
St Louis (23-5)
Ohio St (21-7)
Oklahoma St (22-6)

The 6 line
UCLA (22-7)
Pittsburgh (23-7)
Illinois (20-9)
Oregon (23-6)

The 7 line
Butler (21-7)
Notre Dame (22-7)
Minnesota (20-9)
Colorado St (20-7)

The 8 line
VCU (23-6)
North Carolina St (21-8)
Creighton (24-7)
San Diego St (18-8)

The 9 line
North Carolina (20-8)
Missouri (21-8)
Colorado (19-9)
Wichita St (24-7)

The 10 line
Cincinnati (20-9)
California (20-9)
Memphis (25-4)
Oklahoma (19-9)

The 11 line
LaSalle (20-7)
Belmont (22-6)
Temple (21-8)
St Mary's (25-5)

The 12 line
Middle Tennessee St (27-4)
Boise St (18-8)
Villanova (17-12)
Kentucky (20-9)
Virginia (20-9)
Iowa St (19-10)

The 13 line
Akron (22-5)
Louisiana Tech (25-3)
South Dakota St (19-7)
Bucknell (24-5)

The 14 line
Stephen F Austin (20-3)
Valparaiso (23-7)
Niagara (18-12)
Davidson (22-7)

The 15 line
Stony Brook (22-6)
Mercer (19-10)
Montana (18-6)
Robert Morris (22-9)

The 16 line
Long Beach St (15-11)
Princeton (15-9)
Northeastern (19-11)
Norfolk St (19-10)
Southern (18-9)
Charleston Southern (14-11)



Last 4 out, sponsored by the SEC:
St John's (16-12)
Tennessee (17-11)
Alabama (18-10)
Arkansas (18-11)

Next 4 out:
Massachusetts (18-9)
Maryland (20-9)
Arizona St (20-10)
Baylor (16-12)

Still on the consideration board:
Southern Miss (20-7)
Mississippi (21-8)
Providence (16-12)
Iowa (18-11)
Xavier (16-12)

[TheAsianSensation]

This was a pretty nasty bracket as far as procedural moves go. No flexibility in this one.

So Colorado St/Wichita St, St Louis/MTSU, VCU/Memphis. I obviously hate mid-majors.

Side notes:
1) Wichita St has a decent chance of lining up with Kansas or K-State this year. The committee can keep them close to home (a thing they look for) in KC, and those other two schools are near locks to play in that subregional.
2) I dunno if it holds, but a west regional with Gonzaga as the 1 and New Mexico as a 2 would make people riot. And that may be the region to be in.

MIDWEST
@Dayton
1) Indiana (25-4) vs. 16) Northeastern (19-11)/Charleston Southern (14-11)
8) North Carolina St (21-8) vs. 9) Cincinnati (20-9)
@San Jose
4) Arizona (23-6) vs. 13) Louisiana Tech (25-3)
5) UNLV (21-7) vs. 12) Iowa St (19-10)/Villanova (17-12)
@Kansas City
3) Kansas St (23-5) vs. 14) Stephen F Austin (20-3)
6) Illinois (20-9) vs. 11) St Mary's (25-5)
@Philadelphia
2) Georgetown (23-4) vs. 15) Stony Brook (22-6)
7) VCU (23-6) vs. 10) Memphis (25-4)

EAST
@Philadelphia
1) Duke (25-4) vs. 16) Norfolk St (19-10)/Southern (18-9)
8) San Diego St (18-8) vs. 9) Colorado (19-9)
@Salt Lake City
4) Marquette (21-7) vs. 13) South Dakota St (19-7)
5) Ohio St (21-7) vs. 12) Kentucky (20-9)/Virginia (20-9)
@Austin
3) Florida (23-5) vs. 14) Niagara (18-12)
6) UCLA (22-7) vs. 11) LaSalle (20-7)
@Auburn Hills
2) Michigan (23-5) vs. 15) Robert Morris (22-9)
7) Notre Dame (22-7) vs. 10) Oklahoma (19-9)

WEST
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga (28-2) vs. 16) Long Beach St (15-11)
8) Creighton (24-7) vs. 9) North Carolina (20-8)
@Dayton
4) Syracuse (22-7) vs. 13) Bucknell (24-5)
5) Oklahoma St (22-6) vs. 12) Boise St (18-8)
@Auburn Hills
3) Michigan St (21-7) vs. 14) Valparaiso (23-7)
6) Pittsburgh (23-7) vs. 11) Belmont (22-6)
@Austin
2) New Mexico (25-4) vs. 15) Montana (18-6)
7) Butler (21-7) vs. 10) California (20-9)

SOUTH
@Kansas City
1) Kansas (25-4) vs. 16) Princeton (15-9)
8) Colorado St (20-7) vs. 9) Wichita St (24-7)
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin (20-9) vs. 13) Akron (22-5)
5) St Louis (23-5) vs. 12) Middle Tennessee St (27-4)
@Lexington
3) Louisville (24-5) vs. 14) Davidson (22-7)
6) Oregon (23-6) vs. 11) Temple (21-8)
@Lexington
2) Miami (23-5) vs. 15) Mercer (19-10)
7) Minnesota (20-9) vs. 10) Missouri (21-8)

[TheAsianSensation]

I didn't realize it until the info showed up today, but Texas Southern has won the SWAC and the league's auto-bid to the NIT.

They're also APR'd out of the postseason. Their season is done. And hilarously, the SWAC is forced to waive their autobid to the NIT since their regular season champion is ineligible. They can't transfer that autobid to their #2 team just in case.

Oh, SWAC.

You guys interested in NIT/CBI/CIT projections? I think I would tell Northern Iowa you have a reasonable chance of getting shipped to Iowa in the NIT, knowing how those guys work.