2011-12 Non-Con Schedules

[pafan]

Updated preseason SoS rankings (previous):

1) Bradley - 18.1
2) Creighton - 13.6
3) Drake - 11.1
4) Evansville - 10.4
5) Illinois St. - 10.0
6) Southern Illinois - 9.9
7) Missouri St. - 7.2
8) Indiana St. - 1.6

The formula omits teams who might appear on a schedule, e.g. tournaments. It does, however, include tournaments whose first round pairing has already been announced.

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Some of those numbers I fully agree with, but Missouri State's position is a little odd.

[bigdawg]

What do these numbers signify? Who's is most difficult?

[DoubleJayAlum]

Updated preseason SoS rankings (previous):

1) Bradley - 18.1
2) Creighton - 13.6
3) Drake - 11.1
4) Evansville - 10.4
5) Illinois St. - 10.0
6) Southern Illinois - 9.9
7) Missouri St. - 7.2
8) Indiana St. - 1.6

The formula omits teams who might appear on a schedule, e.g. tournaments. It does, however, include tournaments whose first round pairing has already been announced.

Can you provide the formula you used?

At first glance, Evansville's schedule looks best to me, but your formula has them fourth.

I just hope Evansville can win some of those big games. Since they get a couple of them at home, they should have a decent chance.

[ihsi]

It's pretty hard to compare these with any sense of confidence. For example, Creighton gets credit for playing San Diego State this year based on last year's Top 5 RPI which will be much different this year.

Plus, a team could look like it has an average SOS if they played the #1 team and the #300 team in the same season. In fact, it might look worse than a team playing two game against teams around RPI 100 when it's clear that the former is the more desirable opportunity.

[AndShock]

Updated preseason SoS rankings (previous):

1) Bradley - 18.1
2) Creighton - 13.6
3) Drake - 11.1
4) Evansville - 10.4
5) Illinois St. - 10.0
6) Southern Illinois - 9.9
7) Missouri St. - 7.2
8) Indiana St. - 1.6

The formula omits teams who might appear on a schedule, e.g. tournaments. It does, however, include tournaments whose first round pairing has already been announced.

Can you provide the formula you used?

At first glance, Evansville's schedule looks best to me, but your formula has them fourth.

I just hope Evansville can win some of those big games. Since they get a couple of them at home, they should have a decent chance.

I wouldn't even have UE in the running for best schedule. Once you throw out Butler and UNC all the other schools were 190+ last year. Of course Indiana will be better than that, but I'm not sure about the other teams. I agree with the formula having Bradley and Creighton at top, but I think SWOMO is also in the mix.

[glm38]

Sounds like MSU's final game will be at home against NC State with a return trip next year.

Again, more solid information from the MSU camp.

Instead of a home and home with NC State that was all "but a done deal", MSU's final non-conference game will be a home game against... Emporia State.

So Grillz info about this one game wasn't correct. Big deal. It doesn't change the fact that MSU's non conference schedule is pretty solid.

[WSUbballer]

I kindly pointed this out because Mr. Grillz doesn't seem to be too solid regarding "inside info". He was all over here when it was a done deal that MSU was going to cusa. And then he was very matter of fact in saying that MSU had a home and home lined up with NC State. Just pointing out these factoids.

I don't believe I ever stated that MSU had a bad schedule...?

[glm38]

No you didn't say anything about MSU's non con schedule. But I was just staying with the theme of the thread and saying that despite the Emporia State game - MSU's schedule is pretty good IMHO.

And I again say it's not a big deal if someone's inside info doesn't pan out. That's the nature of the beast. The forum would be pretty boring if we didn't discuss rumors and possibilities. And in this particular instance Grillz prefaced his statement with "sounds like". Not exactly a guarantee. Not even close.

[pafan]

What do these numbers signify? Who's is most difficult?

Yes. This is intended to be a ranking of "pre-season SoS." Bradley has two solid Big Ten schools on the schedule, ISUb has two dates with Louisiana Monroe.

I wouldn't even have UE in the running for best schedule. Once you throw out Butler and UNC all the other schools were 190+ last year. Of course Indiana will be better than that, but I'm not sure about the other teams. I agree with the formula having Bradley and Creighton at top, but I think SWOMO is also in the mix.

It's pretty hard to compare these with any sense of confidence. For example, Creighton gets credit for playing San Diego State this year based on last year's Top 5 RPI which will be much different this year.

There's nobody in the Valley whose schedule looks good if you remove their two best games. If you do, Drake comes out on top.

The goal here is to do a preseason SoS respectably, but unfortunately, last year's RPI is one of the few tools that can be applied to any team.

Can you provide the formula you used?

I'll definitely consider doing so, but I don't consider it "done" yet.

[AndShock]

The point I was trying to make was you need some middle teams, and judging from last year, UE doesn't have any. Take out Creighton's top 2 and you have 84, 87, 167, 189. Bradley still has 105, 150, 172, 177. UE has 193, 194, 209, 232. I am only looking at last season RPI numbers though, nothing more. It's very possible CU's and BU's opponents are projected to slide a bunch, it's possible UE's opponents are expected to do much better, I have no idea.