How long before the AAC implodes?

[uniguy]

I think the thing we are all missing here is that the Big East seemed to have somehow solved the "scheduling with 11 teams" impossible puzzle that has kept us from adding to our league. If someone could get the formula from them that would be great.

The solution to this puzzle is to be on a network that doesn't have a lot of conferences under contract.

(this requires a bit of in-depth explanation).

A one-week schedule for a conference with 11 members would look something like:
Monday: 1 vs. 2, 3 vs. 4
Tuesday: 5 vs. 6
Wednesday: 7 vs. 8, 9 vs. 10
Thursday: 1 vs. 11
Friday: 2 vs. 3
Saturday: 4 vs. 5, 6 vs. 7, 8 vs. 9
Sunday: 10 vs. 11

Every team has played twice in 1 week. Everyone has played on relatively normal rest. But notice a few things here. TV contracts are a lot more complicated with league games each night. Limited flex opportunities. Also note that travel partners don't work well in this type of setup, and scheduling officials might get tricky. Lots of moving parts.

There's a reason why many conferences avoid this, especially those with solid ESPN contracts. Look at the SEC and Pac-12 for example. Pac-12 has a pretty strict Thursday-Saturday schedule plan (with some Sunday instead of Saturday, and sometimes rivalry games on a Friday). SEC plays almost exclusively a Tuesday-Saturday schedule every week. Now the ACC has an odd number of teams, 15. But notice they also have a locked in spot on Big Monday, and notice how they get on TV 4 weeknights every week. Every other conference has a night (Big 12 has a Big Monday spot; B1G has a usual Tuesday spot, so does the SEC, etc etc). ACC, the one team with odd numbers, shows up everywhere.

Now, what does this have to do with the Big East and FOX?

FOX doesn't have a lot of CBB rights. They need to maximize the number of times they show the Big East. If the Big East just had 10 teams and a rigid Wednesday/Saturday schedule, that'd be awful for FOX. They need Big East games every day of the week if possible.

Now look at the breakdown of 11 teams on a weekly schedule. Going from 10 to 11 actually lets them do that.

If the MVC went to 11 teams, they would have to consider things like scheduling officials, making sure their best games always fall into the right TV windows, and the like. Certainly possible to do, but not the easiest. Big East is actually in a unique position thanks to the FOX CBB rights situation to go to 11 teams and make it stick.

I don't know if I agree that is a huge deal for the MVC. We only have a handful of games on over-the-air TV anyway. Most are on the digital network only. When we do get on, its at 9pm on a Saturday. I think we can set it up so our roughly one game a week that is on actual TV would be easy for ESPN to schedule.

The other option would be to continue with the same model and start two weeks earlier (allowing for two extra games, and two open dates on everyone's schedule). Or (given that we are done a week earlier than everyone else already) start one week earlier and schedule a week of games in early December like a handful of conferences have done lately.

[Red]

In case anyone was wondering why UCONN left, 13 years from now the AAC is still going to be getting peanuts (and maybe even less now with the membership change after the deal was done). The AAC is married to this deal for a long long time.

The American Athletic Conference, with the best football and men’s basketball outside the power conferences, also has its media rights expiring after next year and recently finalized a $1 billion package with ESPN that sounds promising for its mid-major brethren until you start peeling back layers.

At first glance: Each school will get just under $7 million per year starting in 2020-21, still not at the level of the SEC’s $43.1 million from 2017-18 but considerably more than the couch change that Div. I’s have-nots receive.

The fine print: Most games will be on ESPN+, a pay web service ($4.99 per month) with only 2 million subscribers, rather than linear or “real” TV; schools are responsible for on-campus production costs, which some estimate could lower their net annual take by as much as $2 million; and the deal is for 12 years, when technology may change and media rights might be worth more and Div. I athletic budgets will undoubtedly have soared.

“That’s what blew me away,” SDSU’s Wicker says, “that 13 years from now they’re still going to be getting $7 million per school, knowing what things cost today and what they might cost in 13 years. I would be surprised if we got locked into something like that. I think that’s too long.”

[BCPanther]

And remember, Wichita is getting around 50% of that $7M because they don't play football.

Wait until the Big 12 adds Houston and see what ESPN is willing to pay.

[Ali]

And remember, Wichita is getting around 50% of that $7M because they don't play football.

Wait until the Big 12 adds Houston and see what ESPN is willing to pay.

Less than 50%, I'm sure.

[AndShock]

Even if we only get 10% that’s not an insignificant upgrade. For some reason 40% sticks out in my mind but don’t quote me on it.

[rally]

In case anyone was wondering why UCONN left, 13 years from now the AAC is still going to be getting peanuts (and maybe even less now with the membership change after the deal was done). The AAC is married to this deal for a long long time.

The American Athletic Conference, with the best football and men’s basketball outside the power conferences, also has its media rights expiring after next year and recently finalized a $1 billion package with ESPN that sounds promising for its mid-major brethren until you start peeling back layers.

At first glance: Each school will get just under $7 million per year starting in 2020-21, still not at the level of the SEC’s $43.1 million from 2017-18 but considerably more than the couch change that Div. I’s have-nots receive.

The fine print: Most games will be on ESPN+, a pay web service ($4.99 per month) with only 2 million subscribers, rather than linear or “real” TV; schools are responsible for on-campus production costs, which some estimate could lower their net annual take by as much as $2 million; and the deal is for 12 years, when technology may change and media rights might be worth more and Div. I athletic budgets will undoubtedly have soared.

“That’s what blew me away,” SDSU’s Wicker says, “that 13 years from now they’re still going to be getting $7 million per school, knowing what things cost today and what they might cost in 13 years. I would be surprised if we got locked into something like that. I think that’s too long.”

They'll be getting less than that in the Big East so I don't think you can blame just the TV contract.

[squirrel]

They'll be getting less than that in the Big East so I don't think you can blame just the TV contract.

Yep. Big East TV revenues are going to be smaller than the AAC based on the football factor alone. I still don't fully understand why this move makes sense for either party, but, it's mostly to offset a revenue deficit of over $41M. It looks like the biggest motivating factor is drastically reducing travel expenses (~$8M in the AAC), and perhaps to boost TV revenues with the league's new supplemental CBS/CBS Sports deal which can be linked with appearances, and probably on the comparative strength of their WBB program.

But as a football independent, that's going to be a big question mark. They won't have to share revenue, but they're going to be taking a lot of buy games, most likely, and it will probably be tough for them to get good bowl games, when they are bowl-eligible.

Buried in this article: https://www.apnews.com/d9c991f546bd4621a65a80832c97a14a Elgin says the league projects revenues for the Valley declining from $7.2M to $2.6M by 2025.

[BCPanther]

It's weird.

It's like the P6 knew that the Valley, A10 and Mtn West were its main competitors and taking bids from their .500 teams and have done everything they can to undercut those three leagues specifically.

[RacerJoeD]

You think?

[Red]

And now the Cincy AD is on record as having a beef with the new media deal because of the unknown production costs that have to be provided by the schools at their own expense. If they have a basketball game on ESPN+, the school foots the bill for the cost. At the end of the day, the $7M is going to be lessened by that and we know that WSU gets only a fraction of the media rights since they don't play football. Who knows how bad of a deal this is going to look like in 2030.