Will a valley team make a Final Four run in the next decade? Heck, I don't know. My guess is somewhere close to Snapshot's, but I'd be a little more broad and guess 5-15%. Making the Final Four is a daunting task for any team, and even the top BcS conferences stuggle to get teams in. In reality, "non-BcS teams" have a stacked deck against them. And even though "non-BcS" teams have made it in three of the last five years, past that, it looks pretty bleak.
That said, the Valley is in about as good of shape as any "non-BCS" conference when it comes to being in position to have a team make a Final Four run. Still very long odds.