VERY early record predictions

[PowderBlue]

In the non-con, I see ISUb going 7-4. They'll drop one of Ball State and UWGB...if for no other reason than that there is always a loss on their schedule that makes me want to scream. I really don't see them winning more than one in the Old Spice Classic with the draw they got, and I'm pretty sure the road game at Vandy isn't gonna end well.

In conference...12-6...maybe 14-4 if Kitchell can be as effective as all of us ISUb fans hope he'll be. The guys will be solid at home, but its always tough to win on the road in the MVC...especially against upper tier teams. 21-8 going into the tournament MIGHT be enough if they get to Sunday...19-10 would not be unless the Valley is much better this year.

[sixth ace]

Just a optimistic guess
OOC 7-2
Conference 11-7
BB (home) W
(Oakland City not in record)
Overall 19-9 heading into Arch Madness
10/29/2011 DePauw Evansville, Ind.
11/4/2011 University of Illinois Springfield Evansville, Ind.
11/12/2011 Butler Evansville, Ind.
11/16/2011 Indiana Evansville, Ind.
11/19/2011 Oakland City Evansville, Ind.
11/23/2011 Illinois Chicago Chicago, Ill.
11/29/2011 Alabama State Evansville, Ind.
12/3/2011 TCU Evansville, Ind.
12/6/2011 North Carolina Chapel Hill, N.C.
12/10/2011 North Carolina A&T Evansville, Ind.
12/17/2011 Tennessee Tech Evansville, Ind.
12/20/2011 Miami-Ohio Oxford, Ohio
12/29/2011 Southern Illinois Evansville, Ind.
1/1/2012 Northern Iowa Cedar Falls, Iowa
1/4/2012 Wichita State Evansville, Ind.
1/7/2012 Illinois State Normal, Ill.
1/10/2012 Indiana State Terra Haute, Ind.
1/13/2012 Drake Evansville, Ind.
1/15/2012 Missouri State Springfield, Mo.
1/18/2012 Bradley Evansville, Ind.
1/21/2012 Illinois State Evansville, Ind.
1/25/2012 Wichita State Wichita, Kan.
1/29/2012 Indiana State Evansville, Ind.
2/1/2012 Bradley Peoria, Ill.
2/4/2012 Southern Illinois Carbondale, Ill.
2/7/2012 Creighton Evansville, Ind.
2/12/2012 Drake Des Moines, Iowa
2/15/2012 Northern Iowa Evansville, Ind.
Sears BracketBuster
2/17-19/2012 TBA Evansville, Ind.
2/21/2012 Creighton Omaha, Neb.
2/25/2012 Missouri State Evansville, Ind.
State Farm MVC Tournament
3/1-4/2012 TBA St. Louis, Mo.

[2livewu]

In the non-con, I see ISUb going 7-4. They'll drop one of Ball State and UWGB...if for no other reason than that there is always a loss on their schedule that makes me want to scream. I really don't see them winning more than one in the Old Spice Classic with the draw they got, and I'm pretty sure the road game at Vandy isn't gonna end well.

In conference...12-6...maybe 14-4 if Kitchell can be as effective as all of us ISUb fans hope he'll be. The guys will be solid at home, but its always tough to win on the road in the MVC...especially against upper tier teams. 21-8 going into the tournament MIGHT be enough if they get to Sunday...19-10 would not be unless the Valley is much better this year.

WSU was 24-8 last year and 25-9 the year before (prior to post season) and in the eyes of most pundits, wasn't seriously considered for an NCAA invite. I also wouldn't consider ISUb's non-con schedule any more challenging than either of those 2 years for WSU. No way ANY Valley team is getting into the dance with a 21-8 record, especially with the schedule ISUb has, unless the Valley is A TON better than we expect it to be.

A TON.

[PowderBlue]

WSU was 24-8 last year and 25-9 the year before (prior to post season) and in the eyes of most pundits, wasn't seriously considered for an NCAA invite. I also wouldn't consider ISUb's non-con schedule any more challenging than either of those 2 years for WSU. No way ANY Valley team is getting into the dance with a 21-8 record, especially with the schedule ISUb has, unless the Valley is A TON better than we expect it to be.

A TON.

I guess I am assuming a lot by saying they'd only have one "bad" loss on the schedule along with beating the teams they should beat in conference. I am assuming the Valley will be a ton better this year as well.

Ass-u-me...all that jazz.

[2livewu]

I guess I am assuming a lot by saying they'd only have one "bad" loss on the schedule along with beating the teams they should beat in conference. I am assuming the Valley will be a ton better this year as well.

Ass-u-me...all that jazz.

I don't think you are assuming a lot, and honestly I think you are trying to be reasonable and objective, but I just don't see how you can think the Valley is going to be a lot better this year.

Let's take a look at it a couple of ways. First, let's look at rosters and experience and see where everyone is: MSU is unlikely to be better, in fact almost certainly will be worse. Same with WSU. Indiana State will probably be better but not a ton, and Creighton will likely be a lot better. Evansville could improve, but the ceiling is low, especially OOC. It's also hard to project UNI being stronger than last year. Now you get to the bottom 4. BU should be a little better. ISUr also should be but recent history gives you little reason to think that's going to happen (plus the schedule...yuck). SIU was terrible and there's no reason to think that trend doesn't continue. Drake is a bit of a wild card and could improve or fall apart. 50/50

Now, if you were to say that the top of the league is going to hold steady and be as strong as last year, and that the strength of the league is going to come from the bottom 4 or 5 teams, then that is an interesting thought. Certainly impressive records in the non-con schedule from DU, SIU, ISUr and BU would bolster the Valley. That just seems like a tough sell at this point. A really tough sell.

The last item is scheduling. Few teams have assembled a non-con schedule tough enough to bolster the league even if they win a ton of games. I wish it were different.....but the last few years tell me it's not.

[Ali]

I think UNI wins 9-11 conference games. Would love to beat ISU and Iowa this year as well.

[MoBraves]

You can tell the Valley is not looking a whole lot better when Evansville & Indy St. are picked in the Top half of the Valley. Let's be real - neither of them have proven themselves yet, though many ISU (blue) fans might disagree.

For the Valley to get stronger, BU, ISU (red), and SIU need to get much stronger. Just compare last year's records to their records 4-5 seasons ago - BIG difference. I know there's an ebb-and-flow in conference, but you should be able to count on 2 of the 3 to at least finish .500 overall from year to year.
If any 2 of them stay out of the Thursday game, which would be a bit of a surprise, could be a very solid conference from top to nearly bottom.

But even so, I'm not expecting the Valley to finish Top 8 in the conf. RPI. I don't see much improvement from last season, especially with the 1-2 teams from a year ago.

[PowderBlue]

I don't think you are assuming a lot, and honestly I think you are trying to be reasonable and objective, but I just don't see how you can think the Valley is going to be a lot better this year.

Let's take a look at it a couple of ways. First, let's look at rosters and experience and see where everyone is: MSU is unlikely to be better, in fact almost certainly will be worse. Same with WSU. Indiana State will probably be better but not a ton, and Creighton will likely be a lot better. Evansville could improve, but the ceiling is low, especially OOC. It's also hard to project UNI being stronger than last year. Now you get to the bottom 4. BU should be a little better. ISUr also should be but recent history gives you little reason to think that's going to happen (plus the schedule...yuck). SIU was terrible and there's no reason to think that trend doesn't continue. Drake is a bit of a wild card and could improve or fall apart. 50/50

Now, if you were to say that the top of the league is going to hold steady and be as strong as last year, and that the strength of the league is going to come from the bottom 4 or 5 teams, then that is an interesting thought. Certainly impressive records in the non-con schedule from DU, SIU, ISUr and BU would bolster the Valley. That just seems like a tough sell at this point. A really tough sell.

The last item is scheduling. Few teams have assembled a non-con schedule tough enough to bolster the league even if they win a ton of games. I wish it were different.....but the last few years tell me it's not.

I think the Valley will be stronger throughout this year for two reasons:
1. The bottom teams will be better (Except for SIU?). Maybe not a lot better, but having a good non conference run across the board will make a difference in terms of RPI fluctuation once the conference season starts.
2. Valley teams like Missouri State, UNI, Wichita State, and Creighton often get some national recognition without being top tier teams because they've had recent successes.

If the bottom half of the conference can do well out of conference and UE and ISUb can sustain their improvement from last year, this should at least be a solid conference this year. Maybe that's a little far fetched at this point, but the MVC needs to rebound a little this year.

[Khan4Cats]

The only way the Valley improves its RPI spot this year is to win games in the non-conf, particularly in the early bracketed tournaments first games in order to get quality sedond and third round teams. WSU lost to UConn last year in Hawaii and while that gave them a chance to get the win over Virginia, it also cost them a chance at getting two such games. UNI lost to Depaul two years ago, costing them a shot at Purdue and Tennessee. Those are the games that need to be won and then built on-in addition to being at least 2-1 in those tourneys.

We also need to be much better as a conference in the MVC-MWC Challenge. 1 win is not going to cut it this year if the conference is going to move up.

The last is the Bracketbuster. I know there are a lot of complaints about it, but we should be owning those games top to bottom if we are really that much above it. It's not like we're up against BcS schools on thier floors in it.

That's the last key: Getting those BcS wins when we get our shots at them, especially at home. Do I expect Evansville to beat North Carolina? No. But a home win over Indiana should be expected. Same with Creighton over the two N's from the Big Ten, UNI with Iowa, Drake with Iowa State, and Missouri State with Oklahoma State. That's 6 games against BcS schools on our home floors and we need at least 4 Ws to have a chance to move up. Be able to split the neutral-court match-ups (at worst) and pick up one or two roadies to off-ser any home losses.

[DoubleJayAlum]

I think the MVC is on an upswing for one reason -- talent is getting better. There was much discussion and hand wringing over the last few years of one NCAA tourney birth. In all of that discussion though, very few made mention of the fact that the reason for the MVC's struggles was a lack of talent throughout. We just were not getting the same level of talent as we did in the previous decade.

I see a turnaround. McDermott, Odum and Rice are all top talents that, barring a Rice transfer, will be around for three more years. If Anthony James, Simms-Edwards and Jahenns Manigat can continue to develop the way they did over the season last year, we could really be on the verge of getting back to where we were as a conference.