I think picking WSU 4th is perfectly reasonable based on the production, experience and leadership we have to replace from last year's MVC Champion and based on what CU, ILS and UNI return.
OTOH, we were pretty much in the same postion last year when we had to replace Durley, Blair, Hatch and Ellis who were very key cogs in the Shocks run to the NIT Championship.
There is no reason to think we won't have pretty solid senior leadership this year between Armstead, Hall and Williams.
Also, as with last year we also have a lot of new pieces, many of whom have not been tested at the D-1 level, but who by all accounts are very good althetes and basketball players. It is difficult to predict how all these new pieces will fit and develop as a team. At this point, however, we do appear to have good depth, good size and good athletes.
Yes, the Shocks could easily finish 4th this year and that is probably where they should be picked preseason. There is no doubt CU, ILS and UNI will be solid. However, it would not surprise me at all if the Shocks finish as high as 2nd. I would be a little surprised if they could overcome Creighton in 2012-13 although even that is not out of the realm if they come together quickly and the newcomers adapt to D-1 ball quickly.