New Expansion Poll Thread

[BCPanther]

There will still be some shake-out in the coming years where I could see a team[s] from maybe CUSA , AAC, or similar maybe consider the MVC. The issue there right now, but maybe not later, would be FBS vs FCS football, but that could change . Till that becomes more clear, 12 is a very good number .

all of conference USA and the AAC are FBS schools except Wichita. Very doubtful anyone considers the MVC except Wichita who I believe will get a MWC invite with Gonzaga

I used to be right there with you in the Wichita State will eventually get a Mountain West invite camp but considering the fact that the coach that got them into the AAC is gone and they haven't won a tournament game since they were in the MVC there might be enough bloom off the rose for them that the Mountain West might not consider expanding into the Central Time Zone for a basketball add to be worth it. If they were still making runs doing better overall then perhaps but I'm wondering if maybe we're witnessing another down cycle for the Shockers. I think Gonzaga is the only basketball team the MWC is interested in but of course what the Big XII does after Texas and Oklahoma formalize their departure dates will matter a lot. If the Mountain West loses Boise State to the XII and SMU doesn't get an invite I could see the Mountain West poaching the AAC of SMU and Tulsa and adding North Dakota State (FB Only) and looking for a program like Wichita State to balance that out. But that might be the only way they get out of the AAC if they are looking to exit.

I do believe if it came to it the MVC would take them back and I do think (especially with the previous association even though there was no doubt some bad blood between the two sides) they would be the type of addition the MVC would go beyond 12 for.

Would the Shockers really want to do that even if the AAC is further depleted? Joining a Mountain West that also adds Gonzaga is one thing but going back to a conference they turned their nose up and sneered at on the way out the door? That would be an admission that their move out of the MVC was a mistake and as we know decisionmakers are prideful and don't like to admit mistakes.

Additionally, as somebody else said in a previous thread when I brought this up, Wichita State might prefer the markets and national footprint\exposure of the AAC anyway even in its depleted state and even if most of their media deal probably gets eaten up in Jet Fuel (especially when the AAC gets a haircut in like 2031 or so). That's the earliest I could see this happening anyway because that would probably be enough time to soothe any lingering hard feelings on either side and until then the money is still pretty good for Wichita State.

I think the MW wants into the Central Time Zone for football but I'm not sure a basketball only school that isn't Gonzaga does anything for them. I think they'd pick Tulsa over Wichita because opening up that 11:00 AM central window for football is worth way more money than any other basketball add would be.

[VUGrad1314]

I think the MW wants into the Central Time Zone for football but I'm not sure a basketball only school that isn't Gonzaga does anything for them. I think they'd pick Tulsa over Wichita because opening up that 11:00 AM central window for football is worth way more money than any other basketball add would be.

I agree with the premise of this post wholeheartedly but is Tulsa a strong enough brand\add on its own to do that for them? I feel like they'd need SMU as well to really have a good foothold in the Central Time Zone. That could give the MW two potential 11AM kicks which would be great for them plus SMU is a pretty strong brand. Also so much of this depends on what the XII does. If they do nothing which is possible the AAC holds and Wichita State probably finds it a tolerable enough place to stay anyway. If the MVC will be as strong as I think it can and will be going forward then it's not like we need the Shockers anyway but they'd certainly be the kind of add I would go past 12 for. I do see Gonzaga leaving a post-BYU WCC though even with the potential risk of membership defections for that conference.

[Salukimadness86]

I'm on the stick with 12 until someone leaves again train. 14 feels like it would dilute the league. I know power conferences have a bunch of teams but I feel there's also a lack of "conference pride" in those leagues. For example, MVC fans root for MVC teams to do well in the NCAA tournament. I don't think Boston College is rooting for Duke in March.

Excellent point, and agree.
12 is the ideal number IMO.

[Campbellproud]

The league hit it out of the park during this round of expansion. I am glad that they didn’t sit on their hands. They struck at the right time and were savvy about who they took. All three adds coming from weaker leagues. If, and only if, we expanded again, it should be a team from a stronger league that no longer wants the travel expenses. SLU is really the only add that would make sense right now. I’ve always heard that they were waiting for a big East invite, but they aren’t even competitive in the A10 so I don’t know where those ambitions come from. I also think that at least one league will totally implode in the next 5 to 10 years. That would be a good time to potentially look for another add. But there is no reason to add just to add. 12 is a great number. Arch Madness is going to be lit.

[E-Villan]

The league hit it out of the park during this round of expansion. I am glad that they didn’t sit on their hands. They struck at the right time and were savvy about who they took. All three adds coming from weaker leagues. If, and only if, we expanded again, it should be a team from a stronger league that no longer wants the travel expenses. SLU is really the only add that would make sense right now. I’ve always heard that they were waiting for a big East invite, but they aren’t even competitive in the A10 so I don’t know where those ambitions come from. I also think that at least one league will totally implode in the next 5 to 10 years. That would be a good time to potentially look for another add. But there is no reason to add just to add. 12 is a great number. Arch Madness is going to be lit.

I wouldn't go as far as saying SLU isn't competitive in the A-10. They have a basketball budget around $7mm, which hangs around the top of the A-10. Their market size, a market they are actually relevant in and facilities will keep them on the Big East short list. There was a time they kept looking at us, but with another big city Catholic school in the Central Time Zone coming into the league, I am certain they will be happy staying put, waiting for the Big East call.

It's rare for a program to drop back, but realistically, if one would be on that radar, it could be Butler. Their basketball budget is around $5.5mm. Considering the AVERAGE of the Big East is close to $10mm, and Villanova is dropping almost $15mm, that is one huge gap to overcome every year. DePaul is the second lowest, and they are around $900K higher. While that $5.5mm seems large to our averages, consider the amount of Fox money and tournament shares they are receiving. Grabbing NCAA berths while outspending your Horizon counterparts with a $2mm budget is a lot different than the game they are in now. The Indianapolis Star had an in depth article today questioning the financial viability of Butler athletics. Indianapolis is a large market, although their MSA is about 800K less than St Louis. Unlike St. Louis, Butler does not command its home market. Indiana and Purdue are both located less than an hour from Indy, and the city is full of alums.

[mvfcfan]

People need to pull their heads out of the sand when it comes to St Thomas. They just moved up to D1 from D3 for goodness sakes and they play in a D3 arena that seats 1800 fans.

Personally I like the 12 we have now and we should stick to that. If anyone ends up leaving down the road I think UWM and NKU will likely be the top 2 candidates in that order.

[ColonialBulldog]

People need to pull their heads out of the sand when it comes to St Thomas. They just moved up to D1 from D3 for goodness sakes and they play in a D3 arena that seats 1800 fans.

Personally I like the 12 we have now and we should stick to that. If anyone ends up leaving down the road I think UWM and NKU will likely be the top 2 candidates in that order.

I agree that staying put right now is the best decision for the Valley, especially when it comes to UST. But I'd be truly shocked if UST isn't a *much* better program than UWM or NKU in 2030. As a reminder, NKU wasn't an option this round because they weren't willing to clear door #1, a stronger investment in their program.

[Chuck A]

I sure would've loved to have seen how Bellarmine fared in this poll. I know I'm in the minority here, but I think Bellarmine will be a better candidate than St. Thomas. They don't have football and hockey eating up the athletic budget. Although they're renting Freedom Hall, the Knights would still bring in more than the 1,800 seat arena the Tommies have will allow.

As travel partners, NKU and Bellarmine would be an hour and a half apart. I do feel the Iowa/MoSt contingent's concern of an Eastern shift (8 hour trip) but barring some of the other possible scenarios proposed (SLU/Wichita), Bellarmine and NKU would be the 2 best while bringing you the Louisville and Cincinnati markets.

[BCPanther]

Ironically, had Loyola stayed I'd be all about 14 because I don't think Murray would have gotten in but now that they're gone, I'm fully #Team12.

Had Loyola stayed, we'd have taken Arlington and Belmont as 11 and 12.

Murray was the biggest winner and Arlington was the biggest (and probably permanent) loser.

[VUGrad1314]

I agree. Even though it should have been Murray and Belmont for 11 and 12. I think the Valley dodged a bullet by not going to 14 especially if one of those schools was to be UMKC. There's at least a chance UIC and UTA could become decent members but UMKC would have no shot and probably drag the conference down permanently. Losing Loyola sucks but I think everything is going to work out for everyone involved here.

Loyola gets more Q1\Q2 opportunities East Coast exposure and a great institutional fit

The MVC gets two great adds plus one with extremely high potential and holds on to Chicago. I think it's very possible that the league can continue on without missing much of a beat with our new additions.

Murray State and Belmont get to step up in weight class and hopefully grow their programs on a bigger stage.

UIC gets a fresh start and a new opportunity to show what they can do. If they decide to take this reset and run with it they can become just as good an add on the court as they are off of it and have perhaps just as big an impact as we expect Murray and Belmont to have.

I even think this has a chance to work out okay for the Horizon League if they are able to successfully replace UIC with a school like Bellarmine who is already doing very well in the Atlantic Sun which is technically a better conference than the HL right now but is losing its two best members in a year or two so I expect the HL to be better than the A-Sun going forward and it is a better fit for Bellarmine anyway.

The A-Sun loses even more basketball power but is taking on such a decidedly football centric identity that losing Bellarmine might actually help them in their quest to become the conference they want to be in the future.

In short this is one of those weird realignment chains where almost every link might actually benefit or will at least emerge no worse for wear. (Of course the OVC and\or Southland are probably big losers here so I guess not everyone ends up doing okay but that's why I said most links in the chain and not all.