Why the sky is falling attitude

[cpacmel]

Snaggle, all you are really telling us is that the BCS conferences get a ton of bids. In other news, the sun came up this morning.

By the way, our conference RPI is up to #13.

[Snaggletooth]

Snaggle, all you are really telling us is that the BCS conferences get a ton of bids. In other news, the sun came up this morning.

I guess that would be the conclusion for somebody who can't seperate the wheat from the chaff. I know you don't want admit it but it does show that Conference RPI is an indicator on how likely a conference will get multiple bids and the magic number is you need to be 10 or better.

By the way, our conference RPI is up to #13.

If you were actually looking at http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-conf-rpi.html you would understand that the MVC expected conference RPI for the year is #12, so it moving to 13 is not unexpected and shows actual convergence of the data.

[jayball]

Snaggle,

There is no magic number. Conference RPI doesn't automatically get you anything. inidivual teams resumes get them into the dance. Not their conference RPI.

We have have been in the top ten for many years now. It hasn't helped us get mutliple bids the past two years when the conference and tourney titles were won by the same school.

[cpacmel]

Snaggle,

There is no magic number. Conference RPI doesn't automatically get you anything. inidivual teams resumes get them into the dance. Not their conference RPI.

We have have been in the top ten for many years now. It hasn't helped us get mutliple bids the past two years when the conference and tourney titles were won by the same school.

Thanks Jayball. That has been what I have been trying to say. One doesn't need a t square or slide ruler to figure that out either.

[Unsmooth Moment]

RPI this early in the year is pretty random.

kenpom uses a different type of data, I think it's a little more realistic, at least up to this point. BTW polmeroy has the Valley rated 10 (ahead of Horizon and WCC)

[TylerDurden]

Snaggle,

There is no magic number. Conference RPI doesn't automatically get you anything. inidivual teams resumes get them into the dance. Not their conference RPI.

We have have been in the top ten for many years now. It hasn't helped us get mutliple bids the past two years when the conference and tourney titles were won by the same school.

Thanks Jayball. That has been what I have been trying to say. One doesn't need a t square or slide ruler to figure that out either.

Of course teams get bids. But you understand that the strength of the conference RPI numbers has an impact, right? That is a part of the resume.

The stronger your opponent is, the better win it is. That's the way the BCS leagues have been doing it for years...dominate non-conference opponents and let the RPI build on itself so that your conference games are a boost.

It's what the Valley did in 2006 and what it hasn't really done since.

When you aren't in the BCS leagues, you can't give them a reason to leave you out or they will.

MVC teams need other MVC teams to win and win a lot in the non-conference (and pick up signature wins) so that those wins are more valuable during conference play.

If you put the 2006 RPI values for MVC teams into the MVC bubble teams' results the last three years, you'd see them on the other side of the bubble.

That doesn't take a T square of slide ruler to figure out either.

[jayball]

Yeah Tyler we all get that.

I don't know what tsquares or slide rulers are but if you can honestly look at the figures below and tell me how conference RPI makes a significant difference to help a nonBCS team get a bid, then you should talk to Matt Damon about doing Good Will Hunting II.

Otherwise from what I can tell....no one gives a ****. Ideally, the top 2-3 teams in the Valley have to schedule tough and win to get at large consideration. Then they have to win in conference. Otherwise we have to have one dominant program that is a lock for at large status and then have them be uspet in St Louis. No one cares how good the MVC is overall. Really they don't care. Would WSU have gotten in last year with the #8 conference RPI? Would CU have gotten in 2009? No. For our conference, it is all about your individual resume. You have to be almost perfect.

year - Conf RPI - bids
2010 – 9 - 1 bid (second place WSU RPI 43 24-9)
2009 - 9 - 1 bid - (second place CU RPI 40 26-7)
2008 – 8 - 1 bid – (second place IlSU RPI 37 24-10)
2007 – 6 - 2 bids (SIU and CU)
2006 – 6 - 4 bids (WSU, BU, SIU, UNI)
2005 - 8 - 3 bids (UNI, CU, SIU)

[TylerDurden]

Yeah Tyler we all get that.

I don't know what tsquares or slide rulers are but if you can honestly look at the figures below and tell me how conference RPI makes a significant difference to help a nonBCS team get a bid, then you should talk to Matt Damon about doing Good Will Hunting II.

Otherwise from what I can tell....no one gives a sh!t. Ideally, the top 2-3 teams in the Valley have to schedule tough and win to get at large consideration. Then they have to win in conference. Otherwise we have to have one dominant program that is a lock for at large status and then have them be uspet in St Louis. No one cares how good the MVC is overall. Really they don't care. Would WSU have gotten in last year with the #8 conference RPI? Would CU have gotten in 2009? No. For our conference, it is all about your individual resume. You have to be almost perfect.

year - Conf RPI - bids
2010 – 9 - 1 bid (second place WSU RPI 43 24-9)
2009 - 9 - 1 bid - (second place CU RPI 40 26-7)
2008 – 8 - 1 bid – (second place IlSU RPI 37 24-10)
2007 – 6 - 2 bids (SIU and CU)
2006 – 6 - 4 bids (WSU, BU, SIU, UNI)
2005 - 8 - 3 bids (UNI, CU, SIU)

The graphs posted show the correlation. It's not 100 percent, but its not arbitrary either and the numbers you posted are pretty incomplete to draw any sort of conclusion about why teams were left out, especially since RPI cannot be compared from year to year. Each season is its own data set.

I think our failure in communication is that you're assuming I'm saying that a conference RPI of X leads to Y number of bids.

I'm not saying that.

I'm saying it's important to care about the league RPI because it means MVC teams are winning and thus improving everyone's future opponents. The actual number doesn't mean a ton, but it reflects the strength of the league, which is important - especially to a non-BCS league.

We agree that individual teams need to build their own resumes - and the conference is vital to that.

Conference RPI is a dependent number. If the MVC has a high RPI, that makes everyone's resume better because it means they beat a bunch of teams.

So it absolutely matters.

Hell, you said as much in your post...which is why I'm confused as to why you think the conference RPI is irrelevant.

If you acknowledge that individual schools need to build a worthy resume, and that the strength of the conference RPIs has an impact, then why do you say it doesn't matter?

That's illogical.

[Snaggletooth]

Yeah Tyler we all get that.

I don't know what tsquares or slide rulers are but if you can honestly look at the figures below and tell me how conference RPI makes a significant difference to help a nonBCS team get a bid, then you should talk to Matt Damon about doing Good Will Hunting II.

Otherwise from what I can tell....no one gives a sh!t. Ideally, the top 2-3 teams in the Valley have to schedule tough and win to get at large consideration. Then they have to win in conference. Otherwise we have to have one dominant program that is a lock for at large status and then have them be uspet in St Louis. No one cares how good the MVC is overall. Really they don't care. Would WSU have gotten in last year with the #8 conference RPI? Would CU have gotten in 2009? No. For our conference, it is all about your individual resume. You have to be almost perfect.

year - Conf RPI - bids
2010 – 9 - 1 bid (second place WSU RPI 43 24-9)
2009 - 9 - 1 bid - (second place CU RPI 40 26-7)
2008 – 8 - 1 bid – (second place IlSU RPI 37 24-10)
2007 – 6 - 2 bids (SIU and CU)
2006 – 6 - 4 bids (WSU, BU, SIU, UNI)
2005 - 8 - 3 bids (UNI, CU, SIU)

The graphs posted show the correlation. It's not 100 percent, but its not arbitrary either and the numbers you posted are pretty incomplete to draw any sort of conclusion about why teams were left out, especially since RPI cannot be compared from year to year. Each season is its own data set.

I think our failure in communication is that you're assuming I'm saying that a conference RPI of X leads to Y number of bids.

I'm not saying that.

I'm saying it's important to care about the league RPI because it means MVC teams are winning and thus improving everyone's future opponents. The actual number doesn't mean a ton, but it reflects the strength of the league, which is important - especially to a non-BCS league.

We agree that individual teams need to build their own resumes - and the conference is vital to that.

Conference RPI is a dependent number. If the MVC has a high RPI, that makes everyone's resume better because it means they beat a bunch of teams.

So it absolutely matters.

Hell, you said as much in your post...which is why I'm confused as to why you think the conference RPI is irrelevant.

If you acknowledge that individual schools need to build a worthy resume, and that the strength of the conference RPIs has an impact, then why do you say it doesn't matter?

That's illogical.

Exactly.

[jayball]

You graphs mean nothing to me. The MVC will never be a perrenial Top 6 conference.

I see how teams are selected. There is no linear trend that proves if the Valley is the #8 conference then we will get more bids that if we are the #10 conference....so who cares. Very few years will the conference be a big help to any team in consideration. The top teams just need to go out and win alot and not drop one to a bad team.

Logic and graphs are irrelavent. It is about whoever the committee decides to invite that year. The only way to get in....is to win.....regardless of what the conference does.

IMO, the margin of help provided by the 5-10th teams in the MVC is very miniscule. If you team wants in they just need to win. Gonzaga just wins, Bulter just wins. Being 10 spots higher in the RPI isn't going to matter if you don't have a marquee win or if you have a bad loss or two. We need our top programs to have better resumes than the top teams in the MWC, WAC, A10, CUSA, and the 6-9th best teams in BCS leagues. We need there very few upsets in the conference tourneys.

I like seeing Valley teams do well, but I'm just not convinced that conference RPI is a big of a factor for who gets bids. I want a good conference, but I've given up on that really mattering to get multiple bids. We could be the 13th rated conference and get 2 in, if we have a really strong team that gets upset in St Louis. We could be the 7th or 8th rated conference and only get one team in. Your team has to schedule right and win and even then you might need some luck to get an at large.

Sorry, I dont' know how to graph that.