RPI/NET

[TreeFan]

Through Games Jan. 09 2020

48 UNI
88 Indiana St.
90 Bradley
126 Loyola
132 Missouri St.
141 Drake
166 Valparaiso
201 Southern Ill.
208 Illinois St.
231 Evansville

Hey, three teams in the top-100, progress!

[PantherSigEp]

Hopefully ISUb and Bradley keep movin' on up to the Top 75!

[VUGrad1314]

That would be awesome!

[VUGrad1314]

In case anyone is interested here is a post I made on the Valpo Board about scheduling home games and the NET with a lot of good data that you may find interesting. It's pretty Valpo-centric but I think there's good stuff to be gleaned for all teams in the conference and really mid major basketball fans in general so that's why I'm posting it here. This is a response to a fellow Valpo fan whose main complaint about Valpo's scheduling was the general lack of home games which is a valid concern but he (and I) have also been critical of the quality of the schedule in the past but that is definitely changing for the positive as this dive into the numbers shows. Here goes:

While I agree with your point on principle it's not like these schools are getting high quality home games for the most part. Here's the non conference home slates for these schools Nets in Parenthesis I assigned a value of 354 one less than the worst D1 program for any Non D1 In the second table Non D1s will be omitted for a more accurate Division 1 NET avg since Non D1 games don't count anyway but this will also lower the number of home games for each team. Neutral site games have been omitted as have conference games as the schools have no control over who they play or when those dates fall as they are set by the conference and are guaranteed parts of the schedule anyway. At issue is Valpo's NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULING anyway which is the part that they have greater control over :

All numbers come from this site using the looking at the Missouri Valley The Horizon League as well as Murray State and Belmont

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/conferencenet

8:
Bradley: IUPUI(289) UIC (271) Norfolk State (286) Radford (146) NC A&T (283) Non D1 (354) Ga Southern (177) Toledo (130) AVG: NET AVG: 242

7:
UIC: Non-D1 (354) Ball State (119) Robert Morris (248) Mercer (273) Canisius (222) Purdue-Fort Wayne (260) UC-Irvine (120) NET AVG: 228.1[/size][/font]

Wright State: Non D1 (354) Kent St (82) Non D1 (354) WKU (136) ISUb (88) Southern (336) MVSU (353) AVG: Net AVG: 243.3

Drake: Kennesaw St (346) UMKC (270) Non D1 (354) Lehigh (281) Milwaukee (256) SEMO (333) Non D1 (354) Net AVG: 313.4

UNI: Old Dominion (155) CS-Bakersfield (263) No. Colorado (110) Tennessee Martin (305) Non-D1 (354) Non D1 (354) Marshall (183) Net AVG: 246.3

Loyola: UC-Davis (238) Coppin St (292) St Joseph's (223) IUPUI (289) Non D1 (354) Norfolk St (286) Davidson (107) Net Avg 255.6

ISUr: Belmont (113) UALR (163) UCF (106) Non D1 (354) Morehead St (287) NKU (179) UIC (271) Net Avg 210.4

6:
Missouri St.: UALR (163) Alabama St (345) Cleveland St (299) Murray St (170) MVSU (353) Arkansas St (211) Net Avg 256.8[/size][/font]

SIU: Non D1 (354) San Francisco (103) NC Central (306) Norfolk St (286) Hampton (328) SEMO (333) Net AVG 285 [/size][/font]

Evansville: Ball St (119) Non D1 (354) SMU (58) WIU (317) Miami (OH) (206) Murray St (170) Net Avg 204

YSU: Non D1 (354) NC Central (306) Non D1 (354) Robert Morris (248) SEMO (333) Binghamton (325) Net Avg: 320 (W Virginia (11) Neutral Site game played in Youngstown but not at Penguins usual home venue) It's semantics yes and if I counted it Their average is still 275.9

Milwaukee: Non D1 (354) W Michigan (227) Non D1 (354) UMKC (270) North Dakota (202) E Illinois (234) Net Avg: 273.5

Murray State: Southern (336) Non D1 (354) SIU (201) Mid Tenn (315) Kennesaw St (346) Non D1 (354) Net Avg 317.7

5:
CSU: Non D1 (354) FIU (169) Robert Morris (248) Toledo (130) DePaul (73) Net AVG: 194.8

NKU: Non D1 (354) Coppin St (292) Non D1 (354) Texas Southern (272) E Kentucky (322) Net Avg 318.8

Green Bay: Non D1 (354) CS-Northridge (255) Colgate(131) Evansville(231) Non-D1 (354) *Green Bay's schedule needed to be made an exception because only one non conference home game (Evansville) was actually played in their usual home the Resch Center Everything else was played in the Kress Events Center which I assume is a smaller venue Net Avg 265

Belmont: Samford (264) High Point (344) Lipscomb (276) Non D1 (354) Kennesaw St (346) Net Avg. 316.8

4:
Detroit: E Michigan (219) Toledo (130) Northeastern (137) SIUE (340) Net Avg 206.5[/size][/font]

IUPUI: Non D1 (354) Evansville (231) Non D1 (354) Purdue Fort Wayne (260)Net Avg 299.75[/size][/font]

ISUb: Non D1 (354) ND State (159) Tennessee St (216) Chicago St (352) 270.25

Valpo: Toledo (130) North Dakota (202) Non D1 (354) C Michigan (200) Net Avg 221.5

3:

Oakland Non D1 (354) Hartford (288) Fairfield(261) Net Avg 301 (Michigan St Neutral site game in DET would drop this to 228)

Conference Rankings (Home games only Neutral site not considered INCLUDES non-D1s :

HL:
CSU: 194.8
Detroit: 206.5
UIC: 228.1
Wright St 243.3
Green Bay: 265
Milwaukee: 273.5
IUPUI: 299.75
Oakland 301
NKU: 318.8
YSU: 320

HL Avg. 265.1

MVC:
Evansville: 204
ISUr: 210.4
Valpo 221.5
Bradley: 242
UNI:246.3
Loyola: 255.6
Missouri St 256.8
ISUb 270.25
SIU: 285
Drake: 313.4

MVC Avg. 250.5

Belmont: 316.8

Murray State: 317.7 (They were hurt badly by Middle Tennessee being uncharacteristically terrible this year)

Conclusion: When non-D1s are factored in the HL actually has some teams that schedule more ambitiously than MVC teams but the MVC schedules better in aggregate. This should hold true when Non-D1s are factored out which I will show in the next data set I will list each team with the number of home games and its net average for D1 home games Again neutral site games even in the same town (except for GB because they would only have one data point otherwise) are omitted. Valpo for its part actually scheduled quite well in relation to its peers when it comes to home games as their slate so far holds up as the fourth toughest. As conference play gets deeper that may decline but perhaps not significantly. You can say you want more but the quality problem is conference-wide not Valpo-specific. We ALL need to step it up. :

Schedules without Non D1s (Home games NET Avg.) :

MVC:

Evansville (5 174)
Valpo (3 177.3)
ISUr (6 186.5)
UNI: (5 203.2)
Bradley: ( 7 226)
Loyola (6 239.2)
ISUb: ( 3 242.3)
Missouri St. (6 256.8)
SIU (5 271.2)
Drake: (5 297.2)

Total D1 home games: 51 5.1 Per team

Net Avg of Home games: 227.37

HL:

Cleveland St ( 4 155)
Wright State (5 199)
Green Bay (3 205.7)
Detroit (4 206.5)
UIC (6 207)
Milwaukee (4 233.25)
IUPUI (2 245.5)
Oakland (2 274.5)
NKU (3 295.3)
YSU (4 303)

Total 37 D1 home games 3.7 per team
Net Avg of D1 Home games: 232.275

Murray+Belmont:

Murray: (4 299.5)
Belmont: (4 307.5)

Conclusion: We all grouse about non-D1 games but when you take them away you will see that most teams are within 1 D1 home game of Valpo. A total of 11 teams have 2-4 D1 home games this year which is exactly half of the teams under consideration. Valpo has an average number of home games for the data set and actually grades out well above average in overall quality. They are scheduling very much like an MVC team when looking for opponents. However of the teams that had 5+ home games only 2 of them (UIC and Wright State) were in the HL. it is worth noting however that BOTH SCHOOLS net AVG opponents were BELOW Valpo's and only Evansville and ISUr exceeded Valpo when Non-D1s were factored in. Without them, Valpo actually jumped ISUr in home schedule strength trailing only Evansville. When it comes to home games, Valpo is still scheduling more like an HL team. You can argue we need more home games but you can't argue against the quality of the home games unless you want to make that a conference wide issue which is fine. It is worth wondering why Evansville and ISUr were able to book Home and Home series with AAC teams and we have not done so in some time. Also it is worth noting that (I believe) Missouri State has a series with VCU that will have a home game for the Bears next year though that might be a one off and I might be mistaken.) I will have to do a deeper dive on MLB's theory of weaker teams higher NET but a cursory glance seems like that data is going to prove inconclusive. I will look at it in greater depth below using conference SOS rank based on home NET avg. and overall NET. This is not a perfect apples to apples comparison because I am comparing only home games to a number that encompasses all games played but it should give an idea as to whether MLB's claim holds water. I will use only D1 home games for this data set:

NET Rankings MVC (Conference Net Avg. rank for D1 Home games ONLY listed after NET number As well as conference rank in D1 home games):


1. UNI 48 4 T3


2. ISUb 88 7 T4


3. Bradley 90 5 1 T3


4. Loyola 126 6 T2


5. Missouri St 132 8 T2


6. Drake 141 10 T3


7. Valpo 166 2 T4


8. SIU 201 9 T3


9. ISUr 208 3 T2


10. Evansville 231 1 T3


HL:


1. Wright State 115 2 2


2. NKU 179 9 T3


3. Youngstown St 218 10 T3


4. Green Bay 228 3 T3


5. Oakland 233 8 T4


6. Milwaukee 256 6 T3


7. UIC 271 5 1


8. IUPUI 289 7 T4


9. Cleveland St 299 1


10. Detroit 308 4 T3


Clearly there is no correlation between strength or number of home games and NET performance. You have to win and win convincingly but strength of opponents matters a lot as well.But as shown by UNI especially you have to win and perform well against quality teams too. That West Virginia game would have meant so much and looked so good on that resume. But I digress. Look at Wright State. They're off to a blistering start undefeated in conference and 15-3 but because they lack quality wins (their two top 100 opponents Kent St and ISUb are two of their three losses and all three of their losses fall within their top 5 strongest opponents this year) so they are strongly lacking in overall resume. In fact they still rank two spots behind Belmont in a down year (113 vs 115). Despite this, I have no idea why more MVC teams didn't call them for games. It would have helped both parties.


I will say that scheduling does indeed appear to be quite challenging under the NET. Too many cupcakes and your metrics suffer too many losses and your metrics also suffer. UNI's loss to ISUr is an illustration of this. Their metrics tanked hard after just that one game. It is clear that this system is very hard and punishing on mids perhaps moreso than RPI. You have to walk the tight rope without much room for error. I would say that the NET is probably more skewed towards big conferences than RPI was which means there is less manipulation needed by the selection committee. Finding the balance will be very hard for mids. I do think part of the solution is to have mids band together and create and accept more series against each other in like for like home and home pairings pairings but this also is hard to nail down in any exact way a year out. Getting rid of the non-D1s for any kind of D1 opponent (either a team you can beat for your metrics or an impressive win) is a good idea. If you need that non D1 for a home game consider trying to take on a crappy D1 opponent in your region to boost your metrics. Otherwise take another buy game and give yourself another shot at a quality win. The point is Non-D1s should be gone from all schedules especially in the MVC. This will help the conference from top to bottom. Even a Q2 or Q3 win which some consider meaningless still means more than just throwing away a game on a Non-D1.


There doesn't appear to be much correlation between number of home games and NET performance either. It's all a timing game trying to get the right game for the right team in the right year which is incredibly hard. For example a couple of teams got burned by St Joseph's having an absolutely terrible year. On paper that's a terrific game to take but it cost Bradley dearly because they are one of the Hawks 3 wins so far (one of the others being UCONN LOL) and as mentioned before Murray State got burned by Middle Tennessee. UNI fans are lamenting how much and how quickly Marshall fell off and I'm sure they expected better out of Old Dominion too. In theory those are great series. By contrast for Valpo Central Michigan and North Dakota have looked like great pickups for our schedule so we lucked out there. As I said it's all about balance and timing and it's impossible to get it fully right.


There is something to be said for scheduling for how you think you'll do relative to your peers in conference as it appears that winning is a very important factor in overall metrics. As with RPI though you can't go the Barry Hinson or St Mary's (until recently) route and have a charmin soft SOS and expect any help when it comes to getting an at large. If that's your goal you have to pass some tough tests and earn it just the same. The NET is new complex and poorly understood. It will take a long time before we mids figure it out if we ever do. However, I rate MLB's theory of get a bunch of low majors at home and drub them as inconclusive in its truth and an incomplete understanding of how to navigate the NET. If he takes this strategy in his schedules going forward I fear that he will be focusing far too much on just one (important but not THE most important) aspect of the NET. You need plenty of opportunities for quality wins too and not just in your MTEs. We should consider more buy games in this environment and also we should eliminate non D1s which are an unnecessary waste of an opportunity for a resume enhancement. Even a small bump can make a big difference because as mids we're going to need all the help we can get in this system. I can tell.


I chose to focus solely on home games because that is the argument of this thread however the MVC is a great example of a league that could have it so much better if our teams had just notched a few more key wins and avoided a couple of land mines.


What would our metrics look like if we had finished against Arkansas and Cincinnati?


What if Evansville had beaten SMU and not gone through that swoon where they lost to two bad teams after that?


What if Missouri State had beaten Miami and Xavier and not lost to Little Rock?


What if Loyola had beaten Davidson and Colorado State and not lost to Coppin State?


What if Illinois State had beaten UCF and Cincinnati?


What if UNI had beaten West Virginia and Wichita State (I think they would have if they had played)? How much better would our conference look right now?


Also please understand that this data is EXTREMELY INCOMPLETE. Some of these conclusions may (and probably will) change slightly or significantly as we get deeper into conference play and toward the end of the season. This would be an interesting topic to revisit after selection Sunday (when we hopefully have multiple bids) and see if these conclusions held or how well they held with time and more data. As always with any analytical study more study and investigation are needed to reach definitive conclusions but I think this serves as a solid jumping off point at relatively the halfway point of the year. The main takeaway is this:


There is no correlation between Home games and NET


There is no correlation between SOS and NET unless you win (though taking on the challenge does appear to keep your metrics higher)


Buying a bunch of low majors and drubbing them is not the path to an at large but it is a strategy that can be effective in the right proportion when used in conjunction with other strategies in the right proportion.


There is no silver bullet strategy to cracking the NET and that is by design. it is going to take a variety of approaches blended skillfully and properly for mids to succeed.


While you can argue that Valpo doesn't schedule enough home games They are doing fine schedule wise relative to their peers. "Incompetent" is probably too strong a word to use, although there has been some luck involved in keeping the home strength high.


If we as a conference want to do better we need to keep recruiting well and make scheduling a top priority like it was in the mid 2000s when the MVC cracked the RPI code.


That said scheduling is indeed HARD. Finding the right games for the right teams in the right years is HARD and NOBODY gets it 100% right.


The difficulties can be eased--but not eliminated--if we as mids work together to ensure the teams we think will be our best get the support they need but this will require serious concerted collaboration across multiple conferences.

And even with the best laid plans and the best of intentions teams can still get burned (See St Joseph's Old Dominion Marshall and Middle Tennessee State as examples. Most would have cheered these games as good gets for any schedule but these teams have underachieved or are downright awful. By the same token other teams (North Dakota Central Michigan) have surprised somewhat.


Non-D1s need to be eliminated by any means necessary by any conference with any kind of multibid ambition. We don't have the luxury of making up those wasted opportunities in conference. By taking a non-D1 all you're doing is making all your other games that much more critical and voluntarily cutting your own throat by reducing your margin for error if you're pursuing an at large. UNI is an OUTLIER IN THIS CASE BECAUSE THEY HAVE SUCCEEDED SO FAR IN THEIR OPPORTUNITIES. DO NOT ASSUME THAT YOU CAN TAKE 2 NON D1S LIKE UNI DID AND SUCCEED. You have to be letter perfect in that scenario. You have to be nearly perfect as it is. Why make it harder on yourself for no discernible gain?

Given the difficulty HL teams seem to have getting home games maybe more games with MVC teams could be mutually beneficial? The HL needs to get better though unless they just want most of their teams to get bought by an MVC team to replace our Non-D1(s). But both conferences need to work more with their peer conferences if they want to be more successful when it comes to their metrics.

[BCPanther]

Tl:Dr

The NET has already been cracked. Beat bad teams at home by at least 10. Play one or two quality road games and win. Perform well in your MTE. That's it.

Also, your obsession with non-DIs continues to be really odd. Games that don't count are WAY better than losing to a bad team at home. I bet Loyola would be 30 spots higher if they'd have played a non-DI instead of Coppin and they're have spent less money on it.

You can't include non-DIs in schedule strength when they literally don't count.

Going forward, Jake has said the schedule is going to be 3 or 4 home and homes with teams at our level, 2 non-DIs, one or two low major buys, the MTE and we'll be bought every two or three years when he feels he can find a favorable matchup when he's got a good team.

[VUGrad1314]

If that's true then UNI should have no problem as long as they do well in the conference tournament. They are going to be the MVC's test case for your theory about the NET having already been cracked. You're assuming a loss which you shouldn't when you're buying a low major at home. The risk of taking a bad loss is the same. Even if it "doesn't count" if you think a loss to a non-D1 is just going to be excused and ignored if a team's fate is in the hands of the selection committee you are wrong. Granted that one game being a slightly better counting opponent likely won't make the difference but my point is when the margin is already razor thin why waste opportunities to enhance your resume? Regardless that's why I took the non-D1s out in the second layer of analysis because they don't actually count. They are just a wasted empty opportunity. Wouldn't both schools have been better off if instead of the two non-D1s UNI had say played an in-season home and home with say Wright State?

[BCPanther]

If that's true then UNI should have no problem as long as they do well in the conference tournament. They are going to be the MVC's test case for your theory about the NET having already been cracked. You're assuming a loss which you shouldn't when you're buying a low major at home. The risk of taking a bad loss is the same. Even if it "doesn't count" if you think a loss to a non-D1 is just going to be excused and ignored if a team's fate is in the hands of the selection committee you are wrong. Granted that one game being a slightly better counting opponent likely won't make the difference but my point is when the margin is already razor thin why waste opportunities to enhance your resume? Regardless that's why I took the non-D1s out in the second layer of analysis because they don't actually count. They are just a wasted empty opportunity. Wouldn't both schools have been better off if instead of the two non-D1s UNI had say played an in-season home and home with say Wright State?

I absolutely see your side too. I really do.

In the end, its up to the coaches in this league to be aggressive without being reckless. We can't run out and fill up on buy games but at the same time we can't buy 4 cupcakes and think that everything is going to work out okay.

The other issue is there are only 3 coaches in the league (Jake, Porter, Wardle) that have the job security at this point where they can take a risk and if everything blows up and you go 4-9 in the non-con you can survive it. If a Lottich or Lansing did that, they could be signing their own termination papers at this point.

[PantherSigEp]

That last paragraph is a great point which puts a lot of scheduling decisions into perspective

[VUGrad1314]

You're totally right. Though Lansing already kinda did it this year having played 4 Q1 games already (too bad he didn't win any of them). He also did play Wright State (dealt them one of their losses). It's been a pretty good non-con overall but they probably scheduled above their station a bit for this year but they ALMOST got that Dayton game. You're right Valpo fans would have been PISSED if Valpo had been that bad in the non-con. Lottich has been on thin ice with a lot of posters (me included although I'm trying to be fairer and see that this team actually HAS made some progress and COULD actually be dangerous next year perhaps so maybe all we need to do is be a little more patient for things to turn around for us). While I fully accepted what a step up the Valley was for us I think even in that I underestimated just how much. Even in a down year without Creighton and Wichita State it's as good or better than our old league was in a great year with Butler. That's an incredible step to take and that is going to take more than a year or two to realistically compete in this league.Close losses are just frustrating and hard to take when you're used to seeing your team dominate as we have been in the past 25 or so years. I'm glad there are more levelheaded people than I am making the decisions for the Valpo program that's for sure. I just wish more coaches had the freedom to do what's best for the conference as a whole and put the MVC first but I get it. Fans don't always take the time to understand layers and nuance of analysis (and I have been guilty of this myself plenty) so if the team doesn't win even if it performs admirably against a tough slate the fans think the team sucks and get frustrated thinking the coach is incompetent because the team didn't win.

[TreeFan]

Through Games Jan. 16 2020

37 UNI
83 Bradley
85 Indiana St.
113 Loyola
135 Drake
152 Valparaiso
156 Missouri St.
207 Illinois St.
212 Southern Ill.
245 Evansville