I don't know if Missouri State is going to be in or not. If forced, I would probably say no because I just don't have the confidence in the committee giving a mid-major ANY benefit of the doubt. They always seem to find the information/stats that justify including more BcS schools and excluding mids. Once it was RPI, then it was "quality wins", then it was "wins over tournament teams", then "no bad losses", then SOS, etc, etc...
But.... If a MSU fan is trying to tout the win over UALR as a "win over a tournament team" please note that the Trojans had to win 4 straight games to get into the tournament after finishing the regular season 3 games UNDER .500. They will probably be playing the SWAC or MEAC champion in one of the "opening round" games.
Of course, should MSU make it, they will likely be there, too, as one of the last at-larges.