Official MVCfans 2011-12 prediction - 3rd place

[glm38]

I'm going to defend the Sycamores and their fans just a bit. I do see the point regarding their undistinguished history over the last 10 years. But I certainly understand their exuberance and optimism for the future especially after a decent regular season and then winning the tourney. That optimism is kind of what being a fan is all about. Or at least it should be in my opinion. To me the worst kind of fans are the ones that constantly pick apart their own team. Way worse than the pollyanna types that think all of their recruits are the next Michael Jordan.

I think CU and WSU look like they are head and shoulders above the rest. But I'm thinking deep down that my Bears even though we lost a lot this past year - that we've got at least a reasonable shot at being right there at the end too. My hope and thinking is that our program is on the rise too after a pretty fine season. So I guess I'll probably be labeled an annoying and unrealistic Bears fan? If so that's fine with me.

[Shockerfan13]

I picked ISUblue 3rd. I definately think Creighton is the team to beat. That's not to say there aren't 2-3 teams that could easily win the conference. And every fan of every team should be hoping they will be improved over the previous year. This is the time of the year the slate is clean and everyone starts out even. Every fan has hope for good things right now. Some fans probably take it to the extreme, but that is just the way it is when you are talking basketball in september.

In the end it will all be settled on the court. Some teams will overachieve, some will underachieve and others will perform as expected. Which teams will fall under which category won't be known for a while. One thing is for SURE, it won't ALL work out exactly as the masses would think. That's why it's so exciting. In approx. 6 months we will see how it all worked out. I can almost guarantee one thing, it won't end up exactly as predicted on this forum. I LOVE COLLEGE BASKETBALL!!!!

[Aces1982]

I think most need to reread this thread. ISU fans did nothing. Everything was started by other fan bases. Jake Odum jabs, Post season wins jabs, one weekend in STL jabs. All ISU fans said was they couldn't wait for the season to play out. I didn't see one ISU poster saying they deserve to be in the top 2. Not one. What I did see, was lots of posters taking cheap shots for no reason. That is what I was coming to the defense of.

[WSUbballer]

First of all, MVJ is a neutral observer and I value his opinion than most because of his neutrality. He pretty much nailed it to the point.

Secondly, I'd like to thank jaycat for compiling those list of statistics with some perspective. Also, Aces0976 added some very good points to the conversation.

I'm with MVJ. Aces1982 has lost me. I think he's lost a lot of people judging by the way this thread has turned. Where did fans from other fanbases start anything? If you're talking about my first post, I stated that Indiana State was my vote and cleverly, well not really, called their team the Jake Odum All-Stars, because obviously he is their best player. After that, Sycamore fans got really defensive and one specifically started spewing nonsense left and right that made no sense.

I would like to get this discussion back on topic, if possible. It seems like whenever some posters chime in, even after a long absence, they just attract arguments. Silly ones at that.

[MoValley John]

I'm going to defend the Sycamores and their fans just a bit. I do see the point regarding their undistinguished history over the last 10 years. But I certainly understand their exuberance and optimism for the future especially after a decent regular season and then winning the tourney. That optimism is kind of what being a fan is all about. Or at least it should be in my opinion. To me the worst kind of fans are the ones that constantly pick apart their own team. Way worse than the pollyanna types that think all of their recruits are the next Michael Jordan.

I think CU and WSU look like they are head and shoulders above the rest. But I'm thinking deep down that my Bears even though we lost a lot this past year - that we've got at least a reasonable shot at being right there at the end too. My hope and thinking is that our program is on the rise too after a pretty fine season. So I guess I'll probably be labeled an annoying and unrealistic Bears fan? If so that's fine with me.

I don't have a problem with any of this, in fact, fans should be excited for the coming season. Sycamore fans should be excited and hopeful for the coming season. But the pent up angst regarding a few Sycamore fans isn't from this thread alone and you can't simply disregard their behavior to this point. Since they won in St. Louis, based on their behavior, you would almost think that they are a perennial power. In fact, the Sycamores did less than both MSU and WSU last year, they just got hot at the right time. But since then, they have looked down on everyone else, gotten upset when McDermott received preseason acclaim over Odum, and have also spouted how Odum was jobbed on the POY award. This doesn't include the other stuff, including the football link I posted earlier. Nobody wants to take anything away from what ISU did last year, they deserve their day in the sun, and nobody thinks their fans should be anything less than optimistic this year, they should.

But this whole thing has been going on a long time and when you counter their behavior to that of most Bears fans, Bears fans will at least accept why others would rank them as low as sixth. Bears fans will rate the Bears higher, but at the same time, accept why others might not. And when a couple of Bears fans started the C-USA stuff, it was Bears fans that were out there saying it wasn't happening.

Here is an exact quote from this thread:

Indiana State has the talent to be a top 3 team this year in the Valley...if you don't see that I'm sorry but you don't know anything about basketball.

So basically, if anyone voted the Trees any lower than third, we don't know a thing about basketball. I voted them fourth, so I guess anyone that cast a vote for them prior to this week, along with myself, knows nothing about basketball and we shouldn't take any offense to those comments....

[Aargh]

Wht do these schools have in common?

Long Island, Texas - San Antonio, Hampton, Oakland, Bucknell, Northern Colorado, UNC - Asheville, Belmont, Wofford, UC - Santa Barbara, St. Peters, and Akron

That's the list of automatic qualifiers that lost in the first round of the NCAA's last year. That's the glorious group that InSU is now a part of.

Do I remember any of those teams from last year's tourney? No. Does it raise my opinion of those teams because they made the NCAA tourney? No. Would I be happy to see any of those teams on WSU's schedule? No. I want the Shox to play better OOC opponents than that.

Getting to the NCAA's is every team's goal. In the Valley, only InSU achieved that goal last year. Getting there doesn't earn respect. Winning there gets some.

When I read the pre-season reviews, WSU is the "reigning NIT champion". CU is mentioned as the runner-up in the tourney they were in. InSU is not mentioned as "the reigning MVC tourney champion". Winning in St. Louis, if you weren't the regular-season champion gets you categorized in the group of schools I listed earlier. Schools no one has heard of except for their being the automatic qualifier cannon fodder for the "real" NCAA teams. No one has heard of Indiana State since Larry Bird graduated.

[Aargh]

InSU fans, Welcome! to the top half of the Valley. Things change when your team gets in that position. Opponents start scouting you more heavily and actually paying attention to your personnel and schemes.

If I'm a coach and my staff has 20 hours to dedicate to scouting point guards, I'm probably going to assign 5 of those hours to Odum and maybe 45 minutes to whoever is playing point for SIU. Sorry for that, SIU fans.

That makes it easier to move up in the Valley hierarchy than it is to stay up. No one targets the bottom half of the league. That leads to things like Evansville's wins over UNI and WSU in 2010. UE, at 3-15 in the league took out the top 2 teams in February. UNI and WSU were targets - UE - was probably overlooked by UNI and WSU. InSU has typically been one of the overlooked teams. That won't be the case this year.

Don't get too overly excited about Odum. He peaked late and the scouting reports didn't keep up with his progress. That won't be the case this year.

Here's an example of how that works. David Kyles started last year on fire. At one point he was hitting almost 60% from 3. Opponents learned - if you don't guard Kyles - he can hit that shot. Defenses adjusted. Kyles went from world-beater to typical decent 3-point shooter. Odum hit his hot streak in the second half of the season and opponents didn't have time to adjust. This year, they've had all summer to watch game films and devise ways to stop what he does.

Odum has the respect of the coaches and fans in the Valley. Now we get to see how he does when that respect results in defenses designed to minimize his impact. Odum is a long ways away from being considered equal with the likes of Maniscalco and Mullins.

It's different once you're known in the Valley. Now InSU and Odum are known in the Valley.

[SycamoreFanatic]

Wht do these schools have in common?

Long Island, Texas - San Antonio, Hampton, Oakland, Bucknell, Northern Colorado, UNC - Asheville, Belmont, Wofford, UC - Santa Barbara, St. Peters, and Akron

That's the list of automatic qualifiers that lost in the first round of the NCAA's last year. That's the glorious group that InSU is now a part of.

Do I remember any of those teams from last year's tourney? No. Does it raise my opinion of those teams because they made the NCAA tourney? No. Would I be happy to see any of those teams on WSU's schedule? No. I want the Shox to play better OOC opponents than that.

Getting to the NCAA's is every team's goal. In the Valley, only InSU achieved that goal last year. Getting there doesn't earn respect. Winning there gets some.

When I read the pre-season reviews, WSU is the "reigning NIT champion". CU is mentioned as the runner-up in the tourney they were in. InSU is not mentioned as "the reigning MVC tourney champion". Winning in St. Louis, if you weren't the regular-season champion gets you categorized in the group of schools I listed earlier. Schools no one has heard of except for their being the automatic qualifier cannon fodder for the "real" NCAA teams. No one has heard of Indiana State since Larry Bird graduated.

Holy crap.........................we better find a new point guard quick............Jake ain't got a chance anymore! Bet he makes your teams all work their a$$es off for the next three (3) years though while he is trying to hang in there.

[BirdmanBB]

If I'm a coach and my staff has 20 hours to dedicate to scouting point guards, I'm probably going to assign 5 of those hours to Odum and maybe 45 minutes to whoever is playing point for SIU. Sorry for that, SIU fans.

That makes it easier to move up in the Valley hierarchy than it is to stay up. No one targets the bottom half of the league. That leads to things like Evansville's wins over UNI and WSU in 2010. UE, at 3-15 in the league took out the top 2 teams in February. UNI and WSU were targets - UE - was probably overlooked by UNI and WSU. InSU has typically been one of the overlooked teams. That won't be the case this year.

hahaha. This is exactly why Illinois State is going to fly under the radar next year and finish top 4. No one is going to pay attention to us until its too late. "Oh wait....ISU is racking up non-conference wins against cupcakes....whats new." "Oh crap...we just got beat by ISU"

[Khan4Cats]

It doesn't change much, but Jaycat didn't quite line up the teams properly-forgeting to skip a place when there were ties (note he didn't have a single team finish in 10th in the last 11 years).

BU CU DU UE IlSU InSU MSU UNI SIU WSU
10-11 9 4 7 6 9 3 1 4 8 2
09-10 5 4 8 10 3 5 7 1 9 2
08-09 4 1 8 5 3 8 10 1 5 5
07-08 5 4 1 10 2 7 7 5 3 9
06-07 4 2 7 7 7 10 3 5 1 6
05-06 5 2 7 7 9 9 2 5 2 1
04-05 8 3 7 9 6 9 5 3 1 2
03-04 6 2 6 8 10 8 5 2 1 2
02-03 5 2 8 5 8 10 3 7 1 3
01-02 8 1 5 9 3 9 4 7 1 5
59 25 64 76 60 78 47 40 32 37
6 1 8 9 7 10 5 4 2 3

In the last 10 years, InSU has the worst track record in the league and has only AVOIDED the play-in round twice. Drake and Evansville have been in the play-in round all but three years in the last ten, no one else has more than 5 play-in appearances, not counting tie-breakers.