Bradley to A10?

[DoubleJayAlum]

WSU/VCU as public schools are far more likely to join the Big East than Bradley.

I think the league has been pretty consistent is stating that it does not want to admit public schools. If they back off that, which seems pretty unlikely at this point, you can still be darn sure that academics will play a very important role in evaluating any such public schools. I don't know where VCU/WSU stand in that regard, but I'd suggest that they could improve their chances dramatically if they could get significantly stronger in that area, assuming local politicians would even allow it.

[saluki762]

WSU/VCU as public schools are far more likely to join the Big East than Bradley.

I think the league has been pretty consistent is stating that it does not want to admit public schools. If they back off that, which seems pretty unlikely at this point, you can still be darn sure that academics will play a very important role in evaluating any such public schools. I don't know where VCU/WSU stand in that regard, but I'd suggest that they could improve their chances dramatically if they could get significantly stronger in that area, assuming local politicians would even allow it.

Believe that the argument being made though is that to go to 14/16 teams and to maintain the BB strength, public schools have to be on the table. Unless expansion goes to the west coast and that is unlikely.

I see no reasonable scenario that the go past 12 teams with the additions of SLU and Dayton. After those 2, no one really makes any sense. That however is the SLU alum in me talking. 10 might actually be best case in the long run.

[Red]

Are we talking about Bradley joining the A10 or the Big East? I could see them have a little bit of appeal to the A10 if that league loses teams to other conference expansion, but no chance Bradley is an option for the Big East.

[rlh04d]

WSU/VCU as public schools are far more likely to join the Big East than Bradley.

I think the league has been pretty consistent is stating that it does not want to admit public schools. If they back off that, which seems pretty unlikely at this point, you can still be darn sure that academics will play a very important role in evaluating any such public schools. I don't know where VCU/WSU stand in that regard, but I'd suggest that they could improve their chances dramatically if they could get significantly stronger in that area, assuming local politicians would even allow it.

I don't think the Big East ever expands to public schools, personally. And I think WSU's academics would probably prevent expansion even if it did.

However, the important things for the Big East will always be the TV deal primarily, and basketball in general secondarily. What schools would benefit those two things for the Big East other than Saint Louis, Dayton, WSU, and VCU? UConn or Cinci if they could fix the football issue (stashing their football in a different conference, if they were ever willing to deal with football schools at all).

Saint Louis and Dayton are the clear, obvious move, and will undoubtedly happen. But if there's any further expansion, what programs wouldn't lower the TV deal? And wouldn't be a net loss in NCAA shares? I think the answer to that will be that the conference won't expand past that number, but if they do, it would have to be an expansion into public schools.

[rlh04d]

Market is but one factor of many. They're not going to admit Detroit if UDM can't/isn't going to invest in their program. I'll agree with you on SLU, Dayton and Richmond. I'll say maybe to Duquesne, Belmont, Davidson and Charleston... and VCU and WSU if they decide to allow public schools. I wouldn't dismiss the importance of academics to a bunch of university presidents.

Another school to throw out is George Washington, but just like with Loyola and St Joes, there is already a NBE school in the market that likely wouldn't want to share the spotlight.

The TV deal is absolutely the biggest factor for the Big East. By miles.

In no way will Bradley increase the TV deal. So in no way will you ever be a member.

You'll need to be a consistent NCAA powerhouse to make up for the utter irrelevance of your market to ever have a hope at joining the Big East.

There is nothing Bradley would add that would make people accept the loss of TV revenue.

Of course it's not just a strict look at market size ... but to join a conference so focused on their TV deal, Bradley would have to add significant value to the TV contract, to the point where it would at least not reduce the amount of money coming in to the other teams. Every team in the Big East makes something like $4 million a year ... do you really think Bradley could add $4 million to the TV contract to keep from reducing the per-team share? I'm not sure WSU would add that much, and we have a FAR better market and a FAR better basketball program.

[siufan4life]

One factor that many people are missing completely here is that 9 out of the 10 schools are Jesuit institutions(Butler being the only non-Jesuit). It is most likely that they will add 2 Jesuit schools probably St. Louis and Dayton/St. Joseph's.

[rlh04d]

One factor that many people are missing completely here is that 9 out of the 10 schools are Jesuit institutions(Butler being the only non-Jesuit). It is most likely that they will add 2 Jesuit schools probably St. Louis and Dayton/St. Joseph's.

I don't think even the most optimistic of Bradley fans would ever think they'd be added ahead of Saint Louis and Dayton.

[DoubleJayAlum]

One factor that many people are missing completely here is that 9 out of the 10 schools are Jesuit institutions(Butler being the only non-Jesuit). It is most likely that they will add 2 Jesuit schools probably St. Louis and Dayton/St. Joseph's.

I think you are confusing Jesuit with Catholic. All Jesuits are Catholic, but not all Catholics are Jesuits. The only Jesuit schools in the new Big East are Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette and Xavier. St Louis is also a Jesuit institution, as are Detroit and Loyola. Dayton is a Catholic school, but is not Jesuit.

[Mikovio]

Market is but one factor of many. They're not going to admit Detroit if UDM can't/isn't going to invest in their program. I'll agree with you on SLU, Dayton and Richmond. I'll say maybe to Duquesne, Belmont, Davidson and Charleston... and VCU and WSU if they decide to allow public schools. I wouldn't dismiss the importance of academics to a bunch of university presidents.

Another school to throw out is George Washington, but just like with Loyola and St Joes, there is already a NBE school in the market that likely wouldn't want to share the spotlight.

The TV deal is absolutely the biggest factor for the Big East. By miles.

In no way will Bradley increase the TV deal. So in no way will you ever be a member.

You'll need to be a consistent NCAA powerhouse to make up for the utter irrelevance of your market to ever have a hope at joining the Big East.

There is nothing Bradley would add that would make people accept the loss of TV revenue.

Of course it's not just a strict look at market size ... but to join a conference so focused on their TV deal, Bradley would have to add significant value to the TV contract, to the point where it would at least not reduce the amount of money coming in to the other teams. Every team in the Big East makes something like $4 million a year ... do you really think Bradley could add $4 million to the TV contract to keep from reducing the per-team share? I'm not sure WSU would add that much, and we have a FAR better market and a FAR better basketball program.

As I said before, this is contingent on Bradley rebuilding its program into a consistent NCAA qualifier which, along with TV ratings, is the other major way a school can increase revenue for a conference. I agree adding Bradley would reduce the per-team TV payout of $4 million. The Peoria metro area (not including Bloomington/Normal) has 379k people, while Omaha and Dayton, which are/would be the smallest in the NBE, each are about 800k.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peoria_metropolitan_area
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omaha,_Neb ... litan_area
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dayton_metropolitan_area

Other candidates will market their media markets, so Bradley has to market its program. And because they have the tools in place to build it (ie attendance, facilities, tradition, budget) and which offer reason to believe success will perpetuate, it's very reasonable to assume that Bradley would contribute to the NCAA payouts and generally do more for the image for the conference by making it more competitive than a Cleveland State or Detroit.

If you add a team that makes the NCAAs on a consistent basis, then you're adding anywhere from $1.9 million (for a first round exit) to $9.5 million (for a Final Four) annually, so it can offset a lower per-team TV payout and bring value to the table. And it's arguably a better move than adding a team in a large market but with a poor program with poor prospects which will rarely if ever qualify for the NCAAs. The next TV network you're in negotiations with BTW may end up cutting their offer anyway with a Cleveland State because they recognize that CSU won't pull in the ratings despite the market. Markets and ratings correlate but once you get down to the list of schools AS put out, nobody is bringing all that much to the TV negotiations table regardless of where they are.

Again, all contingent on Ford's rebuilding job going as planned. It might not, who knows. And even then, it depends on the NBE's interest in getting to 14 or 16. But if so, BU would be a candidate for future expansion. Many of the pieces are in place and the program just needs to turn the corner.

[rlh04d]

Market is but one factor of many. They're not going to admit Detroit if UDM can't/isn't going to invest in their program. I'll agree with you on SLU, Dayton and Richmond. I'll say maybe to Duquesne, Belmont, Davidson and Charleston... and VCU and WSU if they decide to allow public schools. I wouldn't dismiss the importance of academics to a bunch of university presidents.

Another school to throw out is George Washington, but just like with Loyola and St Joes, there is already a NBE school in the market that likely wouldn't want to share the spotlight.

The TV deal is absolutely the biggest factor for the Big East. By miles.

In no way will Bradley increase the TV deal. So in no way will you ever be a member.

You'll need to be a consistent NCAA powerhouse to make up for the utter irrelevance of your market to ever have a hope at joining the Big East.

There is nothing Bradley would add that would make people accept the loss of TV revenue.

Of course it's not just a strict look at market size ... but to join a conference so focused on their TV deal, Bradley would have to add significant value to the TV contract, to the point where it would at least not reduce the amount of money coming in to the other teams. Every team in the Big East makes something like $4 million a year ... do you really think Bradley could add $4 million to the TV contract to keep from reducing the per-team share? I'm not sure WSU would add that much, and we have a FAR better market and a FAR better basketball program.

As I said before, this is contingent on Bradley rebuilding its program into a consistent NCAA qualifier which, along with TV ratings, is the other major way a school can increase revenue for a conference. I agree adding Bradley would reduce the per-team TV payout of $4 million. The Peoria metro area (not including Bloomington/Normal) has 379k people, while Omaha and Dayton, which are/would be the smallest in the NBE, each are about 800k.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peoria_metropolitan_area
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omaha,_Neb ... litan_area
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dayton_metropolitan_area

Other candidates will market their media markets, so Bradley has to market its program. And because they have the tools in place to build it (ie attendance, facilities, tradition, budget) and which offer reason to believe success will perpetuate, it's very reasonable to assume that Bradley would contribute to the NCAA payouts and generally do more for the image for the conference by making it more competitive than a Cleveland State or Detroit.

If you add a team that makes the NCAAs on a consistent basis, then you're adding anywhere from $1.9 million (for a first round exit) to $9.5 million (for a Final Four) annually, so it can offset a lower per-team TV payout and bring value to the table. And it's arguably a better move than adding a team in a large market but with a poor program with poor prospects which will rarely if ever qualify for the NCAAs. The next TV network you're in negotiations with BTW may end up cutting their offer anyway with a Cleveland State because they recognize that CSU won't pull in the ratings despite the market. Markets and ratings correlate but once you get down to the list of schools AS put out, nobody is bringing all that much to the TV negotiations table regardless of where they are.

Again, all contingent on Ford's rebuilding job going as planned. It might not, who knows. And even then, it depends on the NBE's interest in getting to 14 or 16. But if so, BU would be a candidate for future expansion. Many of the pieces are in place and the program just needs to turn the corner.

Sounds like they should add Wichita State, which is ACTUALLY making the NCAA on a consistent basis, making the Final Four, and has a far better market.

Which is again bringing me back to the fact that Bradley would be behind an expansion into public schools. Any addition of Bradley over VCU or WSU, even if Bradley turns the program around, is more about a stubborn refusal to be anything but private schools (while still turning away from the Catholic characteristic) than any real desire to strengthen the conference.

Yes, if you start making consistent runs in the NCAA tournament, Bradley will look far more attractive for expansion -- but I still think you're worse off in the expansion game than Wichita is. And Wichita isn't in a great position either.