Odds the MVC is a one bid league?

[Black]

So there's 345 teams still in the at-large hunt!
This is a message board, you know. It's ok to speculate on the at-large field now, even if it means absolutely nothing later.

[AndShock]

You may not be able to predict at large on December 5th but you can eliminate some teams in the valley already at this point

OK, I'll eliminate SIU but if they win all their games between now and February 5th, I'll un-eliminate them.

If SIU and Loyola went undefeated the rest of the season (less than a .0001% of happening statistically) they wouldn't even have a Top 50 RPI. When I predict at-large teams I like to go out on limbs and only consider things that have a greater than .01% percent of happening.

[Snaggletooth]

You may not be able to predict at large on December 5th but you can eliminate some teams in the valley already at this point

OK, I'll eliminate SIU but if they win all their games between now and February 5th, I'll un-eliminate them.

You can do better than that.

LUC
SIU
Bradley
ISUR
EU
NIU

They have reset their goals - not to play on thursday.

[TheAnswerMan]

Hypothetically speaking, why should a team, Wichita State for example, who falters and fails to win the Arch Madness championship in a lowly one-bid league receive an at-large bid? Losing to a bunch of losers shouldn't be rewarded. In fact, none of their wins against intra-conference "competition" that weak should even be considered by the selection committee. But shocker fans being shocker fans will spend the next couple of months trying to convince everyone that their conference wins are basically meaningless. Hilarious! Insane. But hilarious!

[Black]

Hypothetically speaking, why should a team, Wichita State for example, who falters and fails to win the Arch Madness championship in a lowly one-bid league receive an at-large bid? Losing to a bunch of losers shouldn't be rewarded. In fact, none of their wins against intra-conference "competition" that weak should even be considered by the selection committee. But shocker fans being shocker fans will spend the next couple of months trying to convince everyone that their conference wins are basically meaningless. Hilarious! Insane. But hilarious!

Please list us the at-large resumes of every Valley team and let us know what we're missing. What is WSU's record in the Valley the last 3 years? If it's any close to what that average record is, they'll be fine. No team is going in through a season undefeated. Upsets happen. The committee knows this. That's why even though the Valley was a 2 bid last year, they still received an at large bid with 6 Valley losses.

[Bluejay09Bear06]

It's not premature to suggest that the Valley is a one-bid league barring Wichita's annual collapse in STL. At-large bids aren't earned in conference play, they are only maintained or lost. Wichita has earned their at-large bid, now they must maintain it in conference play. The only other team in the Valley with any type of at-large resume is Indiana State, and that's a stretch. The only in-conference scalp that will help other Valley teams is Wichita, and if they lose too many games they will lose their at-large bid. So I don't see any other path to multiple bids than a Wichita loss in STL.

[Cdizzle]

It's not premature to suggest that the Valley is a one-bid league barring Wichita's annual collapse in STL. At-large bids aren't earned in conference play, they are only maintained or lost. Wichita has earned their at-large bid, now they must maintain it in conference play. The only other team in the Valley with any type of at-large resume is Indiana State, and that's a stretch. The only in-conference scalp that will help other Valley teams is Wichita, and if they lose too many games they will lose their at-large bid. So I don't see any other path to multiple bids than a Wichita loss in STL.

I agree with a lot of this. I think Drake and MSU have not played themselves out of at-large talk yet, as well, though they will need to win a lot of games and pick up at least one marquee win (WSU?) sometime.

The bolded part is more applicable for the Valley and other low-major leagues than for better conferences.

[TheAnswerMan]

Hypothetically speaking, why should a team, Wichita State for example, who falters and fails to win the Arch Madness championship in a lowly one-bid league receive an at-large bid? Losing to a bunch of losers shouldn't be rewarded. In fact, none of their wins against intra-conference "competition" that weak should even be considered by the selection committee. But shocker fans being shocker fans will spend the next couple of months trying to convince everyone that their conference wins are basically meaningless. Hilarious! Insane. But hilarious!

Please list us the at-large resumes of every Valley team and let us know what we're missing. What is WSU's record in the Valley the last 3 years? If it's any close to what that average record is, they'll be fine. No team is going in through a season undefeated. Upsets happen. The committee knows this. That's why even though the Valley was a 2 bid last year, they still received an at large bid with 6 Valley losses.

The committee shouldn't be looking at last year or the year before or the year before that. Old news. To receive an at-large bid, Wichita State must do all of their impressing before January. Shocker fans only see cupcakes with the rest of the schedule. Will their huge wins over Western Kentucky, William & Mary, Tennessee State, and North Carolina Central be enough to offset two months worth of cupcakes? We'll know on Selection Sunday. But until then, you can help your cause by letting the committee know how weak you think your conference is. To that end, you are off to a good start but don't get complacent.

[Snaggletooth]

\Will their huge wins over Western Kentucky, William & Mary, Tennessee State, and North Carolina Central be enough to offset two months worth of cupcakes? .

are you predicting WSU losses versus Alabama, ORU, Tennesse and Davidson?

[Snaggletooth]

Hypothetically speaking, why should a team, Wichita State for example, who falters and fails to win the Arch Madness championship in a lowly one-bid league receive an at-large bid?

I predict that this will be the year that WSU wins STL - has to happen sometime. So I guess it is a mute point now - hypothetically speaking of course.