When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

[Go4Valley]

Two-thirds of the way through. Today's update:

Better chance for Missouri State to get a top 2 seed than it is to play on Thursday... I like it!

They were picked 8th...I had em 6th....right now 6th os 3pct chance....wow. Still alot of ball left

[Majik45]

Did not even think of the 4 and 5 way tie possibilities.

[Go4Valley]

Did not even think of the 4 and 5 way tie possibilities.

Oh my lord....yes you are correct. Wont it go to round robin then the NET rankings?

[Kyle@MOState]

Did not even think of the 4 and 5 way tie possibilities.

Oh my lord....yes you are correct. Wont it go to round robin then the NET rankings?

Yes, the log jam up the middle. I think it was Drake that finished tied for 3 or 4th and still managed to get stuck in the PIG. I am sure one of the fans can tell you the year and the scenario better than I can.

[purple&orange]

In 2012 Evansville, 9-9 in league play was in a very unique tiebreaker. They ended up being the 3rd seed in the tournament by virtue of an overtime win over Missouri State. They needed a three basically at the buzzer that got a fortunate bounce to force that overtime. They finished 5-1 in the round robin (MSU, UNI, Ill St.) to capture the 3 seed via the 4 way tiebreaker.

Had that shot not gone in, they would have been the 8 seed as they were swept by both Drake and Indiana State.

That season 4 teams finished 9-9 (3-6 seeds) and 2 finished at 8-10 (7-8 seeds) in league play. Just further proof that numbers themselves don't mean a whole lot without some context.

[MSUDuo]

Hacksaw, any chance we could see the expanded graphs heading into tomorrow?

[Hacksaw]

Hacksaw, any chance we could see the expanded graphs heading into tomorrow?

Happy to. These are based off of 10,000 simulations and have updated Sagarin ratings, so may not quite align with the numbers from yesterday. Nonetheless, here you go. Let me know if you have any questions or other requests.

[musiccitybulldog]

A big Thanks to Hacksaw for preparing all these stats and possibilities. I know I enjoy looking at them and thinking "what if".
I bet many others feel the same. Thank You.

[Bear4Life]

A big Thanks to Hacksaw for preparing all these stats and possibilities. I know I enjoy looking at them and thinking "what if".
I bet many others feel the same. Thank You.

100%! For years I have always done my own little predictions spreadsheet, but this is a whole 'nother level! Thank you so much for the breakdown Hacksaw, I look forward to it every week.

The addition of the team-by-team view is even cooler. And I had always wondered the exact math around wins and where that generally seeds you (had a good idea), but so awesome to see the exact math on it! Thank you for all your work on it!

[Hacksaw]

Also, in addition to the predictive metrics, I forgot to add the historical seeding results based on wins through 12 games.

Teams 4-8 have 95% of the time played Thursday.
Teams 5-7 have 70% of the time played Thursday.
Teams 6-6 have 16% of the time played Thursday.
Teams 7-5 have 3% of the time played Thursday.


And for reference, here are the historical seeding results through 13 games:

Teams 4-9 have 100% of the time played Thursday.
Teams 5-8 have 86% of the time played Thursday.
Teams 6-7 have 47% of the time played Thursday.
Teams 7-6 have 2% of the time played Thursday.