2020 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

[Saluki 4 Life]

UNI has to be all the way up to 99% at the 1 seed now.

[Hacksaw]

[stable genius]

Haven't logged on in a while and I see now (after making my chart) that hacksaw is already providing this data using sagarin.

But I'm going to post it anyway because I used kenpom data.

I missed how realtimeRPI would give us a win probability chart and I have felt that kenpom/tovik/etc is missing that. So I made one. But yeah, it looks like hacksaw already does this and all of his stuff is much, much more complicated and impressive.

[Hacksaw]

I missed how realtimeRPI would give us a win probability chart and I have felt that kenpom/tovik/etc is missing that. So I made one. But yeah, it looks like hacksaw already does this and all of his stuff is much, much more complicated and impressive.

Torvik does provide a win probability chart. It's not quite as slick as yours, but it's there. Hover over the green boxes to find the % of each outcome.

http://www.barttorvik.com/conodds.php?conf=MVC

[VUGrad1314]

UNI has to be all the way up to 99% at the 1 seed now.

Or not... The race just opened up... Can't wait to see the new probabilities!

[BCPanther]

UNI has to be all the way up to 99% at the 1 seed now.

Or not... The race just opened up... Can't wait to see the new probabilities!

Didn't open up that much for first. UNI is an overwhelming favorite in 3 of the last 4 and wins the tiebreaker with Loyola.

[Saluki 4 Life]

Exactly, those tie breaks mean Loyola needs to go 4-0 and hope UNI goes 2-2. Not going to happen

[Hacksaw]

Quick Sunday morning update:

[Saluki 4 Life]

Can these be updated as of the afternoon games today or do you have to wait for new numbers as of tomorrow?

[Hacksaw]

Can these be updated as of the afternoon games today or do you have to wait for new numbers as of tomorrow?

I'll provide an "official" version tomorrow morning with the team charts that incorporates the updated Sagarin ratings and the new NET rankings. Per your request though, this incorporates the results of today's games, however the Sagarin and NET inputs only take into account results through yesterday's games.