Why the sky is falling attitude

[jayball]

With the BU and UE losses tonight, I doubt even WSU will be able to have a reasonable RPI at the end of the season to be at-large eligible. The only good thing is that the conference seems so terrible that WSU or maybe MSU may be able to sneak through with gaudy MVC records. Eastern Illinois? Seriously?

Second look at a new commissioner?

I think WSU will be fine if they sweep they home pastsies and win at SDSU or LSU. Then of course dominate the Valley.

That is how Gonzaga and Butler do it.

It is just about your teams resume......when talking about WSU or MSU for at larges, no one is going to care that Bradley lost so EIU.

Even if the MVC is the 10-12th rated conference this year, we could still have 2 potential at large/bubble teams if those schools get some big wins and dominate the Valley (MSU, WSU, and less likely CU). If we somehow went on a winning streak and became the 8th rated conference I think you are still looking on only 2 possible at large candidates.

[SubGod22]

Quality wins help and higher RPI from conference teams would help at-large births. More teams in the RPI 100 the better it is for any Valley bubble team to have a win over them. Losing all these non-con games hurt a lot in that sense considering the lack of those games being schedule in the non-con.

[DoubleJayAlum]

Quality wins help and higher RPI from conference teams would help at-large births. More teams in the RPI 100 the better it is for any Valley bubble team to have a win over them. Losing all these non-con games hurt a lot in that sense considering the lack of those games being schedule in the non-con.

I"m with Sub and Jayball. Jayball is absolutely right that teams get bids, not conferences. The committee is not going to give the MVC extra spots just because it is the eighth ranked conference.

Sub makes a good point however, in that one of the criteria the committee uses is wins against teams with RPIs in the top 100 (top 50 wins are even more impressive, obviously). One reason for rooting for MVC schools during the noncon is that it gives MVC schools better RPIs and perhaps makes those wins apply toward top 100/top 50 wins criteria. I suppose it could also help because if you lose to another MVC school and their RPI is better than 150 or so, it won't count as a bad loss.

In summary, there may be some value in having MVC schools do well in the non-con, but the value is surely pretty limited.

[Snaggletooth]

With the BU and UE losses tonight, I doubt even WSU will be able to have a reasonable RPI at the end of the season to be at-large eligible.

Right now the minimum record these teams need for at-large chance is with the MVC performance as a conference is:

MSU 23-6 (RPI 34) or 22-7 (RPI 42)
WSU 22-6 (RPI 39)
CU 25-5 (RPI 35) or 24-6 (RPI 41)
SIU 26-6 (RPI 38)
UNI 22-6 (RPI 38

[Aces1982]

Just like that the MVC realtime RPI is 11th.

[Snaggletooth]

Just like that the MVC realtime RPI is 11th.

MVC RPI was 11th this morning. MVC RPI is expected to be 11th. 11th is not very good.

[Aces1982]

Still doom and gloom? Up to 9th.

With big games the next couple of weeks from lots of teams in the conference.

[RoyalShock]

Still doom and gloom? Up to 9th.

With big games the next couple of weeks from lots of teams in the conference.

Yes, still doom and gloom, even though the conference RPI is up to 8th.

The RPI numbers are not encouraging to me yet is because they are virtually worthless until late December to early January. There isn't enough data in the system to make the numbers meaningful.

The RPI is fun to look at and watch right now, but that's all it is. As quickly as MVC RPI went from 11th to 8th (less than a week), it can fall to 12th or worse by this point next week.

Having said that, at the end of the season the only thing conference RPI does for you is positive publicity if the talking heads choose to talk about it. Coaches may use it in recruiting but I have no idea if they do. I have a feeling high school kids don't give a flip about RPI.

[Aargh]

I hope this puts some perspective on just how bad the Valley is this year.

The Valley just went 1 - 7 against the MWC - a conference we feel should be at about the same level as the Valley.

At realtimerpi, the arrow beside the MWC is pointing DOWN. The MWC's conference rpi DROPPED when the MWC took 7 of 8 games from the Valley. It is legitimate for the MWC to cancel the MVC/MWC Challenge because the MVC is a drag on their RPI. Even beating MVC teams doesn't help teams in the MWC.

I don't think I need to mention that the Valley has an arrow pointing down. Not 2, just 1. The MWC took about the same rpi hit for going 7-1 against the MVC as the MVC took for going 1-7 against the MWC. That appears to indicate that both conferences were a bit overrated, but the results (MWC - 7, MVC - 1) are about what was expected.

[Unsmooth Moment]

Valley did look pretty bad against the MWC, but when you dont have one of the top 2 teams in the conference playing it certainly makes it harder.